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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2011

Thursday, 21 July 2011 08:00
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Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrencev...

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, June, 2011, indicate that there were 1548 properties on the market. Overall, there was about a 6.05 month supply of properties. In 2010, sales for June were at 222, so 276 sales was a pretty good increase, year over year.  Coupled with the slight decrease in inventory, things are looking up.  Normally at this time of year we should be seeing healthy increases in month to month sales.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 1309 listings, with about an 5.5 month supply of homes.  Sales were way up from June 2010 (254 v 192).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  Last month this was one of the strongest price/area segments in Gwinnett County.  This month it is strong, but not AS strong.  The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with slightly lower inventories.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 205 listings for sale, and about 10.8 months of supply.  Oddly, this was one of the weakest segments in the county, again.  The 21 sales for June, 2011 were down from the 28 from June last year.  Sales should have been closer to 30 (if not 40) units for June, and I’d like to see over 30 for July.

From $400k to $600k, there are 26 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 78 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  Case in point is that we went from a 12 month AR to a 78 month AR because of a lack of sales for the last 3 months (there was 1 sale in June).  Just 6 months ago there was 87 months of inventory, though…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 10 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in the last four months.  I was hoping for 2 sales in June… and there were none.  It has been quite a while since sales were strong here… the only saving grace is low inventory.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 2 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, June 2011

Tuesday, 19 July 2011 08:36
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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, June, 2011, indicates that there were 454 properties on the market (as of June 30th). Overall, there was about an 8.5 month supply of properties and 63 properties that closed (sold) in June.  I had been looking for another increase in sales for June and it came through.  And it was an increase over last year’s sales (51) and May, 2011 (54 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down slightly.  Unfortunately, Lilburn is among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 309 listings, with about an 7.7 month supply with 48 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales rose slightly from last month (41), but were more above last year (38).  The Absorption Rate dropped only slightly from 7.9 to 7.7 months of inventory.  This is even a slight improvement over the tax credit fueled buying of this time last year.  If the pace maintains for the next two months, it could mean that Lilburn, GA, is on the verge of a turn.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 132 listings for sale, and about 11.o months of supply.  This segment has been quite weak for months, but has picked up a little strength.  May was a strong follow up to April, which was HUGE… 11 sales compared to just 9 last year.  June pulled down 14 sales, slightly above last year’s 13 homes sold.  If July stays strong (14-15 sales), this could signal a return to a more balanced segment… and Lilburn has been missing that.  (last month I said…) I’ll be looking for around 14 sales for June…  ;^ )

From $400k to $600k, there are just 8 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 6.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April.  May posted 2 sales, and there was 1 sale in June.  It doesn’t seem like much, but this is a segment hasn’t posted that many months with back to back sales…  This is the first time sales have been sales posted four months in a row since 2009.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  March posted the first sale since August, 2010.  It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… Add-on or Get Out?

Wednesday, 13 July 2011 08:32
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I’m not getting this question nearly as much as I used to… but it is still a valid question for many “would-be” buyers (or sellers)…

Should I improve my current home, or just buy a new one?

It isn’t nearly as easy of an answer as it might first seem.  Here is my take on it 3 years ago.  But there are some changes…  Read the old post if you have a moment, then come back and finish this one.  I’ll give a few highlights.

Let’s say that you live in a house that has eroded from $250,000 to $225,000 (10%), and you are looking at a house that went from $500,000 to $450,000 (also 10%).  If you took the $25,000 loss on your existing home, you would save $50,000 on the step up home.  So, you are $25,000 ahead.

Home of Benjamin Harrison, 23rd president of t...

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Well… the house that you might have taken a 10% loss on 3 years ago might be staring at a 25-30% loss now… maybe more, maybe less.  But (this is important) that might be starting to change… might… depending on your neighborhood and even the style of house.  So, we might start seeing some of those great deal disappearing.  At the same time, we might find that a few more prospective sellers can get out of their current home without losing their shirts.  If you can’t afford to sell, then the deals are irrelevant.

Also, in the old post I mentioned interest rates… they were around 6% then, and they are around 4.5% now.  This CAN’T last.

Combining these two items, home affordability hasn’t been better in a VERY long time.  But, you still have to be in a position to make the move… be able to sell your home (and either have equity or the ability to pay off the balance.

Also in the old post I talked about not building too far outside of the “neighborhood norms”.  If the average house in your neighborhood is a 3-4 bedroom, 2-3 bath ranch, building a 6 bedroom two story home is NOT going to pay you back.  I’m not saying that you can’t do it (but check local ordinances and covenants, THEY might say you can’t), I’m saying that you shouldn’t expect to be able to sell it without pain.

Even if you NEVER plan to sell the house, think about resale.  I have sold more than one “I’m never going to move from here” homes for sellers.  Life changed and so did their needs.  They went and bought new “I’m never going to move from here” homes.  Even if you are right… you are never going to move from here, at some point, somebody in the family is likely to sell the house.

 

If you decide that you want to move up (or down or sideways), give me a call.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, May 2011

Tuesday, 12 July 2011 08:16
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Market stats for Norcross GA, May, 2011 indicate that there were 385 properties on the market. Overall, there is about a 7.2 month supply of properties. This year has been very strong so far… although it has slowed the last two months… it hasn’t slowed much.  May saw 52 sales, slightly above the 49 for April and the 48 for last May, but with the slight decrease in listing inventory the Absorption Rate (AR) still built strength.  This is one of the few market areas in Gwinnett to post four strong months in a row.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 225 listings, with about 5 month supply.  Sales are up sharply from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (39 v 32).  For the last two months, the AR has been in the range of balanced… it got a little better this month.  This looks like the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 120 listings for sale, and about 18 months of supply.  As strong as the under $200k segment is… this one is that weak.  The 7 sales were a considerable drop from last year’s 13 sales, but a good bump from last month’s 3 sales.  Of course, this segment has always seemed to lag.

From $400k to $600k, there were 34 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 8.5 months.  The Absorption Rate has been dropping for 5 months.  This is odd considering the performance of the next segment down, but totally in line with the <$200k segment.  May’s 5 sales are down from 2 the month before, and compares favorable to last year’s 2 sales… and the inventory decrease really helped.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there was 1 listing on the market.  Inventories have decreased as sales have increased compared to last year.  The absorption rate is at 1.5 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales last year and then the sale in March and another in May, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. The ONLY reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate is that there is only 1 listing.  Only.  For June there are 8 listings… expect a major change in this segment.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 homes listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 4 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  The single sale in January (first since October) has pushed the Absorption Rate down to 24 months of inventory.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,41, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, May 2011

Thursday, 07 July 2011 08:45
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Market stats for Buford, GA, May, 2011 indicate that there were 584 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 8.3 month supply of properties.  There were 75 sales for April, up slightly from 73 last month and 73 from last May (2010).  It is an impressive comeback from March’s poor showing.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 313 listings, with a 6.1 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were up slightly from last month (54 v 51), but strong compared to last year (47 sales in May 2010).  Framed in the results for the whole market area, the segment is quite strong.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 213 listings for sale, and about  12.1 months of supply.  The 17 sales recorded were significantly below the 22 from last month., as well as down from the 23 sales last year for May.  It is among the weaker price/area segments in Gwinnett County, GA.  Of course, if there were a big bump next month…

From $400k to $600k, there were 36 homes on the market. The absorption rate is almost 54 Months.  This shouldn’t be acting like a high-end luxury segment, but it is.  There has been 2 sale in the last 3 months (both in May).  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  And despite the lower market segments getting better, this one has been weakening.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings.  Absorption Rate is 6 months… but it jumps around a lot.  Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term.  The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 4 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 5 sales in this segment in the last year… the last was this month.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 7 homes listed. And with only 1 sale in the last year (Feb 10) until last December (2 more), obviously  trends are hardly definable.  At least listings are down by more than compared to a few months ago (9 listings in June).

Above $1m, there were 11 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… FINALLY, a new sale.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands.  Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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