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Tag Archives: sellers

Lilburn, GA Market Report, June 2012

Monday, 16 July 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

This map shows the incorporated and unincorporated areas in Gwinnett County, Georgia, highlighting Lilburn in red. It was created with a custom script with US Census Bureau data and modified with Inkscape. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, June, 2012, indicate that there were 284 properties on the market (as of June 30th).  Overall, there was about an 4.1 month supply of properties and 77 properties that closed (sold) in June.  It was a huge increase from last year’s sales (63) and an increase from May (68 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down a good bit.  Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 4.06 months of inventory, it is downright strong now.  Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 199 listings, with about an 3.4 month supply with 65 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales increased a bit from last month (59), and were also up from last year (48).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn.  At 3.4 months of inventory, with a few months of similar stats, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 74 listings for sale, and about 6.7 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance.  It is stalling a bit again.  There were 11 sales compared to 8 last month and 14 last year.  Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market, but this number is not bad.  The decrease in listings has really helped.  I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet…  It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like.  This month was quite strong, last wasn’t.  The month before was strong… and the one before that, not.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 7 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 10.5 months. There was 1 sale in June.  Poised for a comeback, but the increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen.  To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Feb12).  If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 4 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

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I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, June 2012

Friday, 13 July 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, June, 2012 indicate that there were 455 properties on the market (flat from last month).  Overall, there was about a 5.1 month supply of properties (up slightly from 5.0 last month).  June had 93 sales. Compared to May, 2011 (63), this year was pretty hot.  Inventory was down compared to 2011 (629).  There were 99 sales last month.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 116 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 3.3 month supply (183 and 5.6, respectively last year).  This June’s sales were down, at 36 (33 last year, 42 last month).  This was definitely the strongest price segment in Suwanee.  While it used to be a county leader, though, for now it is mid pack with the other locales in the county.  The next level up is coming up fast, though.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 217 listings for sale (300 last year, 220 last month), and 5.4 months of supply.  Sales in June, 2012 were 42 (43 in May), compared with 22 for the same period in 2011.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 40-50 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.

From $400k to $600k, there were 66 homes on the market.  The absorption rate was at 6.6 months (6.0 in May).  There were 9 sales in June (11 in May)… up from 3 last June.  Looking at the three month average, there were 30 sales this year and 16 for the same period last year.  This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 24 listings, with about a 8.0 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 6 this month (3 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around.  For the last three months, sales were 9…  For the same time last year, the sales were 7.  With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county.  But until I see 3-5 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.  We’re two months in that range…

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 10 homes listed and at least 30 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales at this price level last year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August).  This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some more sales activity.  There was 1 sale in March this year.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 22 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 33 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (2 for April, 0 for May and 0 for June).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 27 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Don’t Lose Your Shorts (Sale)…

Wednesday, 11 July 2012 08:00
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They are all of the rage.  Sellers don’t want to be forced to do them, and buyers are scared to death of having to deal with them.  At the same time, it is often the best option for a seller to avoid foreclosure and get back on the path to rebuilding their lives.  They can also be a great deal for buyers.

English: Buyers and sellers in the Plazuela de...

English: Buyers and sellers in the Plazuela de los Sapos, Puebla, Mexico (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

As a buyer, there are some big differences between buying foreclosures and buying short sales.  To begin with, often, short sales are still occupied.  I have been in a LOT of houses… foreclosures, vacant homes that weren’t foreclosed, abandoned homes and non-distressed tradition sales.  Homes without people in them tend to degrade.  Short sales tend to be in better condition and have fewer maintenance issues that need to be dealt with right away.

However, all is not wonderful in the world of Short Sale properties.  They have a huge problem.  Short sales are risky.  The risk is financial, but rather it is time.

  • The average Short Sale takes over 9 months to close after going under contract.
  • Only 25% of Short Sales actually make it from contract to closing.

So that means that a buyer could go through the better part of a year, only to have the sale fall through because of a lender-based wrinkle.  And when 3 out of 4 of them fall out in the process, it equals a MASSIVE waste of time.

The risk is the same for a seller.  Months and months of uncertainty followed by disappointment.  The desire to get on with financial life gets delayed.  It’s no wonder that so many sellers end up giving up and letting the house go to foreclosure.

But, there IS a way out…

Along with the brokerage change a few months ago, I also partnered up with a couple of other agents… one of which is a short sale specialist.  As part of the partnering, we have contracted a firm that handles Short Sale Process from contract to close.  The firm’s batting average is quite a bit better than the national averages…

  • Their average Short Sale takes less than 4 months from contract to close, with most happening anywhere from 2-5 months.
  • They are at 82% making it through the process to closing.

This is a huge reduction of risks for both the buyer and the seller… financial, time and emotional.  It still isn’t perfect, but 4 out of 5 beats the heck out of 1 in 4.  And getting the average time down by half is pretty big, too.  That gets Short Sale buyers out of the realm of almost exclusively investors and back into a range that is workable by people that plan to live in the house.  That opens up the market considerably.  And that means that more of the sales are likely to make it to close.

BTW, Sarah’s close rate is even higher than the 82%.

If you are wondering whether a Short Sale is appropriate for you, please feel free to give me a call, or send a text to my cell or email.

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How Does the Market Look?

Monday, 09 July 2012 08:00
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The regular market reports will resume on Friday, but for today I just wanted to expound on the general market a little.

Things have really changed in the last few months.  Just 4 or 5 months ago, I was constantly looking for “follow through” on strong numbers for almost every market segment.  There would be a good month or two, but then there would be a lousy one to cast doubt into the recovery process.

There were programs designed to “bring back the housing segment”, and while some of them did manage to move the market for a short time, for the most part, they only seemed to steal from future sales.  Sales that would have happened regardless were moved up in order to qualify for government subsidies or more favorable tax treatment.  But over the long run, they didn’t create many sales that wouldn’t have happened over the follow couple of months.

After all of that worked through the system, and consumers were more certain that there wouldn’t be future inducements, sales started picking up again… but the real boost to the sales numbers has been inventory reductions.  And while there are still rumors of a “tidal wave of foreclosed properties”, those same rumors have been around for 3+ years, always with the tidal wave 4-6 months away.  There could indeed be a wave of foreclosed properties poised to hit the market, I wouldn’t bank on it.  And the market does seem ready to absorb some more inventory, especially on the entry level end of the spectrum.

The bottom line is that the real estate market is getting back to normal.  In fact, under $200k in most of Gwinnett, it is well into Seller’s Market territory.  From $200k-$400k, it is mixed.  Above that, it is still pretty much a Buyer’s Market, but not to the extent it has been for the last few years.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the market when the general economic recovery starts in earnest.  I am still of the opinion that the best stimulus for the housing market is a recovery in the jobs market.  While the unemployment rate has gotten better, the labor force participation percentage rate hasn’t budged much.  The unemployment rate discounts workers that give up or time out on unemployment, while the labor force participation rate includes everyone that could be in the labor force.

I’m firmly of the belief that many buyers are reluctant to make a 30 year plan (buy a house and get a mortgage) when they are worried about the security of their job over the next year.

Stay tuned to see how it all shakes out…

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, May 2012

Friday, 06 July 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Norcross GA, May, 2012 indicate that there were 256 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 4.9 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  May saw 57 sales, over the 50 for April, and the 52 for May last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 143 listings, with about 3.9 month supply.  Sales are well off from last month and from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (37 v 39 in May11 & 37 Apr12).  For the last eight months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At just over a 3½ month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 83 listings for sale, and about 7.3 months of supply.  This segment had been weakening for the last few months. But, the 16 sales were pretty good compared to last year’s 7 sales, and last month’s 7 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  This is a world better than last month, though.

From $400k to $600k, there were 27 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 7.4 months.  The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January.  May’s 3 sales were down from the 5 last month and down from last year’s 5 sales.  This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell…  The good news is that it would only take a few sales to put it back in a balanced range.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 3 listings on the market. Inventories tripled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 9 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.  February had 1 sale. The were 0 sales for May12, 1 for Apr12 and 1 for Apr11.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 0 homes listed on the market and 1 sale in May (0 sales for April). There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 0 properties listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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