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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, January 2011

Thursday, 10 March 2011 08:25
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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , December, 2010 indicate that there are 232 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 12.7 month supply of properties.  Sales have been fairly steady since July (aside from a bump in December), but inventories were rising, and along with it, the number of months of inventory (that is the wrong way…).  January had an odd drop in inventory this year.

for Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 169 listings, with under 10.8 months supply.  There were 12 sales this January, versus 11 last year for the same time.  And December had a nice bump in sales, at 25 homes.  That really cranks the 3 month numbers to look better than they really may be.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 53 listings for sale, and about 14.5 months of supply.  As recently as May, there was only a 6.75 month supply.  This segment really took a beating.  It had a slight bump in November, but drove off a cliff in December.  There were only 3 sales v 11 last year.  January pulled out 3 more sales, which isn’t terrible compared to 5 last year, but the decrease in listings is why this segment looks stronger.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 6 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 36 months, but with 1 sale in the last 6 months, it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  There have only been 3 sales in this segment last year.  In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 18 months or so.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, January 2011

Tuesday, 08 March 2011 08:09
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, December, 2010 indicate that there are 582 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 13.5 month supply of properties.  There was less that 8 months of inventory as recently as June.  Even though inventories are down since then, sales are also down.  January was a big move in the wrong direction for the overall Suwanee Market area.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 171 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 11.9 month supply.  In June, there was a 4.8 month supply.  Inventories have increased, until September, as sales have slowed…  Since this is usually the main sales driver, its slowing is reflected in the overall sales numbers slowing.  Hopefully, February shows a turn.  There were 15 sales, compared to only 10 a year earlier.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 271 listings for sale, and 12 months of supply.  Sales for January 2011 were 16, compared with 24 for the same period in 2010.  Still weak, but with the decrease in listings, leading to an improvement in the Absorption Rate.  Listings are up slightly for February… we’ll have to see how sales shake out.

From $400k to $600k, there are 78 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 23.4 months.  There were 2 sales this year… down from 4 last year.  Even looking at the three month average, there were 10 sales this year and 21 for the same period last year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 25 listings, with about a 15 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent.  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump.  For the last three months, sales were 5…  For the sale time last year, the sales were 7.  The segments strengthened, but we can’t call a trend yet.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 13 homes listed and 3+ years of inventory on the market.  There have only been 4 sales at this price level last year (1 each in January, April, May and December).  This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 24 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 36 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  Again, we can thank reduced inventory for making the market look healthier (2 sales in Nov-Jan this year and 2 last year).  But, in this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 40 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill.

I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, January 2011

Thursday, 03 March 2011 08:44
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, January, 2011 indicated that there were 584 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 11 month supply of properties.  Months of Inventory has been increasing for the last couple of months, until last month.  Sales in January were 40, compared to 25 a year earlier.  Usually in January we see an uptick in inventory, which continues through the spring.  Inventory actually dropped this time.  If inventory stays flat or doesn’t move as high as previous trends, this could bode well for properties on the market.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 239 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 9.1 month supply.  The Absorption Rate had gotten down into the high 4 month realm… and as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  In May, it was at 7.9 months and has been rising since, until last month.  Sales for December were up this year v last year (23 v 9).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 158 listings for sale, and about 11.6 months of supply.  Sales decreased from 11 in 2010 to 7 in 2011.  With sales down for November, up for December and down for January, there is no clear trend.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again.

 

From $400k to $600k, there were 54 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 7.7 months.  This is one of the strongest segments in Gwinnett County.  Of course, this is on the heels of a weak December and flat November.  Sales were strong this year v last year (6 v 3).

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 50 listings, with about 13.6 months of supply.  Sales were 4 for January… just 1 for this month last year.  Month to month sales were flat, but at least it is a much higher level than last year.  If listings stay relatively low, this segment could show a great improvement.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 28 homes listed and approximately 16.8 months of inventory on the market.  Falling inventories and increased sales are fueling the increasingly favorable Absorption Rate (it was 67.5 months in February).  There were 5 sales in the last three months, this year.  Last year, there were 4 sales in the same period.  Over the summer, the Absorption Rate for this segment dropped as low as 14.3 months of inventory.

Above $1m, there were 55 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 55 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates…  There were 3 sales in the Nov – Jan period this year, and 3 sales for the same time last year… but inventories have been dropping.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, January 2011

Tuesday, 22 February 2011 08:56
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Market stats for Lilburn, January, 2011, indicates that there are 414 properties on the market (as of January 31st). Overall, there is about a 12.3 month supply of properties. Lilburn is actually mid-pack among cities in Gwinnett County. The Absorption Rates had been getting worse since August, but December clocked an improvement from November. January was back to the downward slide. But January is normally a rough looking month, since sales slow at the end of December and there are fewer closing scheduled for January. In March there were 15.3 months of inventory.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 276 listings, with about an 9.7 month supply. This represents most of the sales in the market area, and reflects the same improvement in inventory levels, continuously since March, until October. Sales were drastically higher than January 2010 (26 v 18). The Absorption Rate is slightly better than last year, too (10 months of inventory in January, 2010).

Between $200k and $400k, there are 119 listings for sale, and about 23.8 months of supply. This segment has been quite weak for months. Having 0 sales in December, and only 6 in November didn’t help. Nine sales in January was HUGE. For comparison, in January, 2010 there were 4 sales. The strong sales in January pushed the Absorption Rate down substantially from 28.5 months, in December, 2010.

From $400k to $600k, there are 14 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 42 months. There were no sales in this segment in May, June, July, October or December this year. There were only 4 sales in August and September(combined). November had 1 sale (2 last year). Last summer was much stronger overall. With just a few sales, just one or two can make a huge difference. The improvement is due solely to the reduction in listings.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. There has been one sale in the last five months, but prior, there had only been a few other sales in 2010 (January, March and August). One of the listings is above $1M (none between $800k and $1M), and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Local? Hyper-Local? National? What IS the Market?

Thursday, 10 February 2011 08:20
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old photo of peachtree street, atlanta, GA

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I love watching the news… but when they talk about the real estate market, I cringe.  I like to hear the national numbers, but I also know that they are just a framework for a smaller discussion.  Yep… a smaller discussion.

It matters what the overall market is doing, but it’s not nearly as important as what is happening in your neighborhood.  It matters what is happening in Georgia, and the Atlanta Metro market, but not nearly as much as what is happening in your specific city.  Real estate prices and demand react to specific local issues much more than to national trends.  In fact, the national trend is just a compilation of local and hyper-local trends.  What the national market does is create a headwind or a tailwind.  That’s about it.

Here locally, we look at things like…

  • changing employment statistics
  • companies relocating into or out of the area
  • school performance and trends
  • tax burdens
  • quality of local governmental services
  • proximity to recreation and entertainment
  • ease of movement (commuting, shopping, etc)

As we see these things change, we see the market move in one direction or another.  A prime example at the moment is the City of Atlanta schools issue.  It is possible that the Atlanta City Schools could lose their accreditation.  If that were to happen, it would drive down the price of most of the homes served by those schools.  The price would be driven down because there would be a lack of demand on the part of buyers, combined with an increase in supply as sellers seek to move to districts without the same problems.

Gwinnett County has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Georgia, below the national average.  But there is also a tremendous overhead of foreclosure action.  We also have one of the highest performance school systems in the region… and reasonably low tax rates.

The market in Miami or Las Vegas doesn’t have an effect on what is happening in Georiga, much less what is going on with real estate in Gwinnett County.

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