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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, December 2011

Monday, 23 January 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , December, 2011 indicates that there are 158 homes on the market.  Overall, there is about an 5.0 month supply.  There were 31 sales, compared to 34 last month and 28 last December.  The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is largely due to the decrease in listings.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 118 listings, with about 5.0 months supply.  There were 24 sales this December, slightly less than last year for the same time (25).  Last month there were 29 sales.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month there was a slight decrease.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 34 listings for sale, and about 11.3 months of supply.  Last December there was an 17.2 month supply.  Last December there were 3 sales, this year there were 7.  Last month  had 2 sales.  This segment had a HUGE turnaround this month compared to the last few months.  The 3 month rolling average of sales was WAY up and the inventory was down.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 3 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 3 months, but with 4 sales since last October (until November), it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference, and we had 3 more sales in November alone, but none for December.  That brought the total sales for the year from 4 to 7.  There were only 3 sales in this segment last year.  I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 3 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Wayback Wednesday… How Were My Prognostications?

Wednesday, 04 January 2012 08:00
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Last year I wrote one of those “wonderful” annual prognostication posts with my guesses on what we would be looking at during the same time next year… and that would be now.

Gwinnett County, Georgia

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Here is a link to the old post.  I’ll have the quick version below, but if you want to see the context, knock yourself out…

  • I predict that next year there will STILL be people talking about the coming giant wave of Shadow Inventory.  Well, I have to say that I hit that one.  Inventories are dropping, but the general buzz in the biz is that there is a huge wave of “Shadow Inventory” just around the bend.  Of course, it has been there (just around the corner) for a few years now…
  • Interest Rates ARE going to rise.  They did… a little… but they are down.  I was wrong.
  • … there will be another wave of government intervention…  I hoped I would be wrong on this one, and I was.
  • The entry level market (under $200k) is well on the way to recovery… and that will continue.  I hit that one right.  The entry level market is pretty much rocking in Gwinnett County.
  • And I don’t think we will see a meaningful recovery in prices for the Luxury Market (above $600k).  Talk about a hurting market segment…  Unfortunately, I hit that one on the head.
  • The “Near Luxury” segment (from $200k-$600k) will be mixed.  That one is pretty close.  There are some markets that we are seeing a meaningful recovery for this price level… and other, not so much.  A few are just waffling.
  • I don’t see Unemployment going under 9% during 2011.  How do I rate this one?  Officially, I am wrong.  However, most of the improvement hasn’t been from job creation, but rather from people giving up.  The December numbers are supposed to be released later today…

I went 4 for 7… maybe 5 for 7, depending on how you want to score the last one.

 

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, November 2011

Friday, 30 December 2011 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , November, 2011 indicates that there are 173 homes on the market.  Overall, there is about an 5.3 month supply.  There were 34 sales, compared to 18 last month and 15 last November.  The Absorption Rate (AR) actually increased, but that is largely due to the weakness last month.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 124 listings, with about 5.2 months supply.  There were 29 sales this November, dramatically more than last year for the same time (10).  Last month there were 18 sales.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month increased.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 42 listings for sale, and about 31.5 months of supply.  Last November there was an 13.4 month supply.  Last November there were 5 sales, this year there were 2.  Last month also had none.  This segment is acting opposite of the under $200k segment, as well as opposite of stronger areas like Suwanee ($200k-$400k).

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 4 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 4 months, but with 4 sales since last October (until November), it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference, and we had 3 more sales in November alone.  That brought the total sales for the year from 4 to 7.  There were only 3 sales in this segment last year.  I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 3 homes listed for sale in that price range.  No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County.  The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits.  The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford.  And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby.  That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Wednesday, 14 December 2011 08:00
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You just have to love Zillow’s Zestimates.  Log in and look… poof… there is the Zestmate for your home.  Couldn’t be easier.  It’s almost too easy.  OK, it IS too easy.  And while I love the Zestimate just as much as everyone else, I also know that the chances of it being right are pretty slim.

"Lincoln Heights"I don’t want to slam Zestimates, though.  They actually ARE quite useful.  Their usefulness isn’t in their application to individual houses… it has more to do with looking at Zestimates for larger areas… ZIP codes, cities, regions.  The statistical variations that are the problem with looking at individual houses start cancelling each other out.  what we are left with is a pretty good measure of home values for an area.

Last year I posted up a breakdown of the Zestimate accuracy of individual listings in the Atlanta Metro Statistical Area.  The bottom line is that the Zestimate has about a 1 in 5 chance of giving you a value within 5% of the real market value of your house.  And the y are just as likely to be high as they are low.

If you are just curious, it is a fun tool.  If you REALLY need to know, you should talk with an Appraiser or a Real Estate Agent (depending on WHY you really need to know).  And remember, the real estate agent that tells you the highest value is probably wrong… and might even know they are wrong.  In the business, we call it “buying a listing”.  The strategy there is to promise a high listing price, and then come back after you are in a listing agreement and try to get the price down to where it should have been in the first place.  The biggest problem with that strategy is that it completely wastes the prime market time… when the house is first listed.  The end result is that the price usually ends up lower than if you had opted for a slightly lower price to begin with.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Monday, 12 December 2011 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , October, 2011 indicates that there are 169 homes on the market. Overall, there is about an 5.0 month supply. There were 18 sales, compared to 27 last month and 20 last October. The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is largely due to a declining listings.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 118 listings, with about 4.8 months supply. There were 18 sales this October, slightly more than last year for the same time (17). Last month there were 25 sales. Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling. Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month was a big drop.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 44 listings for sale, and about 33 months of supply.  Last October there was an 14.8 month supply.  Last October there were 17 sales, this year there were 0.  Last month also had 2.  This segment is acting opposite of the under $200k segment, as well as opposite of stronger areas like Suwanee ($200k-$400k).

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 15 months, but with 4 sales since last October, it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. There were only 3 sales in this segment last year. In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range. I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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