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Tag Archives: suwanee

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Wednesday, 14 December 2011 08:00
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You just have to love Zillow’s Zestimates.  Log in and look… poof… there is the Zestmate for your home.  Couldn’t be easier.  It’s almost too easy.  OK, it IS too easy.  And while I love the Zestimate just as much as everyone else, I also know that the chances of it being right are pretty slim.

"Lincoln Heights"I don’t want to slam Zestimates, though.  They actually ARE quite useful.  Their usefulness isn’t in their application to individual houses… it has more to do with looking at Zestimates for larger areas… ZIP codes, cities, regions.  The statistical variations that are the problem with looking at individual houses start cancelling each other out.  what we are left with is a pretty good measure of home values for an area.

Last year I posted up a breakdown of the Zestimate accuracy of individual listings in the Atlanta Metro Statistical Area.  The bottom line is that the Zestimate has about a 1 in 5 chance of giving you a value within 5% of the real market value of your house.  And the y are just as likely to be high as they are low.

If you are just curious, it is a fun tool.  If you REALLY need to know, you should talk with an Appraiser or a Real Estate Agent (depending on WHY you really need to know).  And remember, the real estate agent that tells you the highest value is probably wrong… and might even know they are wrong.  In the business, we call it “buying a listing”.  The strategy there is to promise a high listing price, and then come back after you are in a listing agreement and try to get the price down to where it should have been in the first place.  The biggest problem with that strategy is that it completely wastes the prime market time… when the house is first listed.  The end result is that the price usually ends up lower than if you had opted for a slightly lower price to begin with.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Friday, 09 December 2011 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, October, 2011 indicate that there are 539 properties on the market (down from 579 last month).  Overall, there is about an 6.6 month supply of properties (down from 6.7 last month).  October had 83 sales.  Compared to 2010 (58), that was VERY strong.  Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (601).  The last four months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  Obviously, I like seeing continued strength here.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 177 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 5.2 month supply (159 and 8.7, respectively last year).  This August’s sales were OK, at 42 (just 22 last year).  This is definitely the strongest price segment in Duluth, but not that strong compared to some other areas of the county.  As recently as June 2010, the A/R was 4.8 months.  I was looking for sales to hit 35+, and they did… we need a good follow-up month for November.  I should start having good numbers soon.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 246 listings for sale (311 last year), and 7.0 months of supply.  Sales in October, 2011 were 31 (42 in September), compared with 31 for the same period in 2010.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Could be getting better…

From $400k to $600k, there are 62 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is at 6.6 months (6.5 in September).  There were 8 sales in October (5 in September)… way up compared to last October (3 v 8).  Looking at the three month average, there were 28 sales this year and 17 for the same period last year.  This segment has gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but for the last few years has dropped off pretty heavily as school started.  I’d be quite happy with 10 sales over each of the next two months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 19 listings, with about a 8.1 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there was 1 this month (3 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around.  For the last three months, sales were 7…  For the same time last year, the sales were 3.  With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county.  But until I see 2-3 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one as strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 6 homes listed and 18 months of inventory on the market. There were only been 4 sales at this price level this year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August). This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 29 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 87 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (only 1 sale for October).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties.  The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses.  It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill.  I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices

Wednesday, 02 November 2011 08:00
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Three years ago I wrote about a quiet little map that the NAR (National Association of REALTORSS®) had built (and they’re still populating with data) showing the median home prices of various metro areas around the country.  It is pretty interesting to see median prices around the country and compare them with the prices here (or where you live).


View Metropolitan Sales Areas Q1 2011 in a larger map

There is a dark side, though.  That would be looking at the numbers in historical perspective.  Here is a quote from 3 years ago:

For the 2nd Quarter, the Atlanta area was at $158,300, which was down 9.8% from the 1st Quarter.

Now, the Median Home Price here is a little more challenging.  For the 1st Quarter this year the Median Home Price was $99,800, and that was down 9.4% from a year ago.  More importantly, it is down about 37% from three years ago.  I don’t have a complete set of data, but I suspect that the median price has dropped around 50% in Metro Atlanta.

One important note here is that this does NOT mean that the value of any particular house has dropped 50%, or that the average value of homes have dropped 50%.  There is NO mistaking that home prices have crashed and burned… then crashed some more.  But there has also been a shift in the last couple of years towards less expensive homes.

Be sure to keep an eye my local market reports for more specific data about individual areas of Gwinnett County.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Friday, 28 October 2011 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, September, 2011 indicate that there are 579 properties on the market (down from 593 last month). Overall, there is about an 6.7 month supply of properties (down from 7.3 last month). September had 79 sales. Compared to 2010 (55), that was VERY strong. Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (598). The last two months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months. Obviously, I’d like to see continued strength here.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 179 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 5.8 month supply (144 and 8.3, respectively last year). This August’s sales were OK, at 28 (just 18 last year). This is definitely the strongest price segment in Duluth, but not that strong compared to some other areas of the county. As recently as June 2010, the A/R was 4.8 months. I’d like to see sales approaching 35 for the next couple of months to call this segment strong.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 274 listings for sale (311 last year), and 6.7 months of supply. Sales in September, 2011 were 42 (32 in August), compared with 30 for the same period in 2010. Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months. I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Could be getting better…

From $400k to $600k, there are 67 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 6.5 months (6.5 in August). There were 5 sales in September (15 in August)… flat compared to last September. Looking at the three month average, there were 31 sales this year and 26 for the same period last year. This segment has gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but for the last few years has dropped off pretty heavily as school started. I’d be quite happy with 10 sales over each of the next two months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 23 listings, with about a 6.3 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 3 this month (3 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 11… For the same time last year, the sales were 10. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, this has become the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. Over the next couple of months, look for 2-3 sales a month on average.  On track so far…

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 9 homes listed and 9.0 months of inventory on the market. There were only been 4 sales at this price level this year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August). This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 27 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 27 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. 

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

Wednesday, 12 October 2011 08:00
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Three years ago I published a little article about how housing starts were at their lowest level since 1991…  There were 820,000 starts in September of 2008.  And to me, that was a good thing.  If there is too much inventory, making more inventory isn’t the best idea.

Well… that was three years ago.  In August of 2011 (the last month with available numbers that I could find) there were 571,000 starts.  And furthermore, aside from a couple of bumps, starts have been bouncing along under 600,000 starts since December of 2008.  And I STILL say that it is a good thing.

Inventory is WAY more balanced than it was, even compared to just a year ago.  However, values are still well below where they should be. And there are still the persistent rumors that “the banks” are going to release millions of foreclosed homes that are “in the pipeline”.  Personally, I have been discounting those rumors for a few years… because the same rumors have been around for several years.  For a couple of years now, there have been rumors alluding to “shadow inventory” that was 3-6 months from the market.

So, if inventory is balancing, and starts have been down for years, how could I think that they need to stay low longer?  Well, it comes down to a few factors…

  • Pricing…  It still doesn’t pay for builders to put up houses in many markets.  Basically, pricing almost has to be below the cost of materials plus land in order to get the house sold.
  • Vacant Inventory…  Even in the depths of the crash, I didn’t see as many vacant homes as I do now.  I don’t have stats to back it up, but it seems like vacant inventory is surging.  (BTW, I think that is actually a sign of a recovery forming…)
  • Buyer Fear…  Despite incredibly low interest rates on mortgages and very low prices on homes (even Clark Howard is saying it might be time to move back into real estate), most buyers are still nervous.

Oddly, if you look over my market reports, I specifically refer to a couple of segments as being WELL into Seller’s Market territory.  And it is hard to square these two points…. that there is an active Seller’s Markets (in some segments) AND that starts need to stay low because the market is still weak.  But it comes down to averages…  One city might be rocking the sales, while just up the road everything is stagnant.

Location…

 

Housing Start Source.

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