You might have noticed that these reports lag by a month to a month and a half.  The reason for the lag is that it takes until the end of the following month for the data to stabilize.  So, the data for August wasn’t very solid until the beginning of October.  I have tried to use preliminary data, but it always seemed to veer at the last minute…

So, let’s get to the numbers and try to get a handle on what they mean.

At the end of August, 2010, there were 6,473 homes on the market in Gwinnett County, GA.  As expected, there has been a general upward trend in the number of listings all year, but that is slowing… again, as expected.  While this is a lot of listings, it is low compared to the 10,000+ listings that were on the market a couple of years ago.  There were 617 sales in August.  This was down from 697 sales for August, 2009.  Averaging the result for the last three months yielded an Absorption Rate of 9.7 months of inventory.  Which shows an increase since June.  This has been pretty consistent across the board on price and location segments, although not exactly the same in all areas.

The Under $200,000 market segment was the meat in this sandwich.  For August, it represented 4,022 homes listed.  There were 436 sales during that period.  Averaging the last three month gave the segment an Absorption Rate of 8.8 months.  The rate has been rising since May (rather than the more normal June), having bottomed at just under 7.2 months of inventory.  Year over year sales for August were down from 487 in August, 2009.

In the $200,000 to $400,000 range, things are different.  There were 1,838 listings county-wide.  Oddly, the Absorption Rate, currently at about 11.1 months of inventory, has been dropping since March.  In most other segments it has been rising… getting worse.  And while sales are down, listings are down more, which is driving the absorption rate down.  Year over year sales were down significantly, 141 for 2010 v 172 for 2009.

Between $400,000 and $600,000, there are 354 listings in Gwinnett County and 25 sales for August, 2010.  Again, the Absorption Rate has been basically dropping since March, 2010.  Currently it indicates about 23 months of inventory.  This time it is a result of strong sales.  Inventories are down slightly, but sales are steady v last year.  For August, 2009, there were 27 sales.  While 23 months of inventory isn’t anything to bank on, at least it is dropping.

Here is a real anomaly.  In the $600,000 to $800,000 strata, the Absorption Rate indicates only 10 months of inventory.  That rate has been dropping since February.  In fact, in February there was a 38 month inventory of properties.  For August, there were 97 listings in this price range.  There were 7 sales… up from 6 in August, 2009.  Honestly, I was really surprised to see these numbers at this level…

As we move up to the $800,000 to $1,000,000 price level of Gwinnett County, GA, homes for sale, we see that there were 54 active listings and 3 sales for August, 2010.  This has an indicated Absorption Rate of 45 months of inventory.  Because the sales at this price level are less consistent than at lower levels, the rate bounces around a lot.  Sales may be rebounding here, though.

On the top level, Over $1,000,000, there were 108 listings and 5 sales for August, 2010.  Here we have seen the Absorption Rate on the increase, despite the inventory dropping.  For August there was about 25 months of inventory.  Sales are down significantly from last year.  Since this is a very wide range (prices from $1,000,000 to over $10,000,000), there are more listings and sales than the next level down.  Also, the homes are generally harder to compare because this realm is populated with custom homes and “one-offs”.

I’m looking forward to seeing the sales data for September soon.

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