Two years ago I wrote this post…  And it is almost embarrassing…  I was SO wrong.  So wrong.

Or maybe I was right, but just a couple of years too early (nope, I think that saying I was wrong is closer to the truth).

In effect, my opinion was the real estate was poised for a recovery.  The prices were cheap, and mortgage rates were almost impossibly low.

Prices are lower… and so are interest rates.  There are still deals out there (but at least there is a fight for some of them).  But the fact remains that I misread the market, then.  I tend to be a little more cynical about it now…

But, all of the same forces that were lined up pointing to a recovery, like the media talking it down, investors like Warren Buffet looking at real estate, etc., are still there.

What I hadn’t banked on was unemployment and how it would affect the real estate market.  Unemployment is up about 30% from where it was two years ago.  Despite the bailouts, government takeovers and TARP, people aren’t working.  Until that happens, we won’t see a real estate recovery…  But when it happens, it will happen in a big way.  I still believe that.  It won’t wind back up as fast as things unwound, but the best deals will vaporize from the market.

As mentioned, I have had buyers that have had to compete for properties at the entry level.  It is a glimmer of hope…