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I’m everywhere…

Earlier today I had a conversation with a reporter from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution about real estate market values in Gwinnett County.  He is working on a story about the effects to the market last year and wanted a “from the trenches” perspective.  We had a great conversation for over an hour.

There were a few things i took away from the conversation.

First, he had a great grasp on what was going on in the market already.  Instead of just looking at national or regional numbers, he was looking at specific ZIP codes and asking why some were strong and others weren’t.  While I agree with the NAR stance that “All Real EState is local” I think that many agents are trying to use that to rebut reality.

The next thing I took away is that my blog is effective.  Google searches and alerts from my blogs were the reason he contacted me.  Blog posts from LaneBailey.com and Active|Rain, as well articles from GarageHomesUSA.com take four out of ten slots on the first page of Google for Gwinnett County Market Report or Gwinnett County Market Report Real Estate.  One of the things that the reporter said was that while assembling information for the story, my name and material kept coming up.

Finally, as a reporter, he knew that the only way to examine the market was in the rear-view.  The numbers that had been assembled for him were for 2007.  While we were talking, he wanted to know what was happening since January.  We also talked about how even the numbers posted for May weren’t complete, and wouldn’t be until July.  And even if the numbers were accurate and posted right up to today, they wouldn’t reflect pending sales and those are the most recent transactions.

As I told him, if we are at “market bottom” right now, it might be next year before we know that.  And by that time, the bottom would be gone.  MLS statistics generally lag by about a month.  We have May numbers, but many transactions weren’t entered until the start of June.  Tax records and County data take about 2-4 months to show up.  So, for a transaction completed in May, it may not be reflected until September or October.  Academic and institutional data, like Case-Shiller tend to take a few months as well.  But, more importantly, we can’t identify the bottom until there is a strong trend away from it.  And we need a couple months of data to see that trend… because one or even two months isn’t a trend.  So, if we won’t have May numbers that we can rely on until September, and we need numbers for June, July and August, we might not be able to identify that May was the bottom of the market until January.

Please note, I am not saying that we are at market bottom, I am saying that if we are, we won’t know until that opportunity has passed. I do feel that Gwinnett County is close to its market bottom.  But I can’t say that the data supports that until the data is out and verified.

Should I change or should I no?

I have been playing with the idea of a little change over on GarageHomesUSA.com.  I keep seeing the site and wondering if I should update the look.  I’m working over the content for the June issue, and just feel like a bigger change might be good.

On the plus side… it would be fresh.

On the minus side, the continuity would be lost, and it takes a fair amount of time to change it up since I have a lot of tweaks.

Any thoughts?

No place for whiners…

I’m sitting here watching Game 5 of the NHL Stanley Cup Finals.  As I start this, the teams are in their second overtime.  Detroit leads Pittsburg 3-1 in the series, and they are tied 3-3 in this game.FrozenMoment_052708

Creative Commons License photo credit: jsorbieus

Since we are in OT, it is sudden death.  And despite the fact that these teams have been playing 90 game minutes of a 60 minute game… there is NO slowdown… NO break… NO coasting.  And, despite a questionable call giving the Penguins a Power Play… there is NO whining.

These are two teams made up of experts and professionals.  They do their job.  If the game isn’t going their way, they do their jobs.  If they take a hit… they still do their jobs.

If only more people could learn this.  When the housing market is tough, we should do our jobs.  If we think the calls by the media aren’t going our way… we should do our job.  No slowdown, no break, no coasting.

And people wonder why I like hockey…

Wet and wild Video Sunday

Anyone that reads with regularity knows that I like off-road racing. It doesn’t get much more off-road than this…


Who doesn’t like the very thought of a thousand horsepower or more…

BTW, to go REALLY fast on the water, the idea is to keep very little boat in the water… but some boat has to stay in the water…


I hope you had fun.

Maybe it explains their 122 year history

I normally don’t like to pimp specific companies products too much… unless I am presenting competitive products as well, but I just wanted to commend Sears.

Craftsman Lift and Secure JackNo, I didn’t go to a store and get amazing customer service. No I didn’t order something off the internet from them. I didn’t even stumble across an amazing price… But, what I DID find was the Tool Catalog. I am very familiar with it, I try to make sure I grab one each year. And I do it not because I am necessarily going to buy a bunch of tools, but because they have a great selection that gives the cross section of what sort of groovy/cool stuff is out for the garage.

When I was a kid, the release of the JC Penney Christmas Wishbook was THE most important literary event each year. And while the Tool Catalog release doesn’t hit THAT level… it is a lot of fun. It makes me happy for a day or three.

So, let’s hit a few highlights…

Cross Force Wrenches by CraftsmanCraftsman Cross Force Wrenches. These things are pretty cool. How many times have you been pushing on a combo wrench and it just isn’t easy to provide a lot of force because you are pushing on the edge of the wrench? These are also ratcheting… and I LOVE my ratcheting combo wrenches. They are often my “go to” wrenches.

Craftsman Jack System, Lift and Secure. In order to safely work under a vehicle, we are always supposed to support it on jack stands, and not just the jack. This cuts a step and makes it more likely that even on those “just going to dive under and shake something for a minute” jobs that we will employ the safer method.

Orange Metallic Tool Cab

Don’t adjust your set… it isn’t red.  It is Orange Metallic.  It is joining blue, forest green, black and silver as options for their tool boxes.  Not everything is available in every color, but it IS nice that we don’t have to get stuck with the red box… even if it clashes with the maroon street rod.  So, a Craftsman Professional Tool 56″ Tool Cart in Sunburst Metallic Orange is on the cool list.

Montezuma Portable Tool BoxMontezuma Portable Tool Box.  This one is in black, but it’s also available in red and white.  It is kind of cool because of its shape, and the fact that just about everything is out there as soon as it is open.  There aren’t any drawers to jam, and we won’t forget where we put something…  It’s all right there.

So, that’s just a couple of the things that Sears found that we might like to find.

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