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Duluth, GA, Market Report, April 2012

Friday, 01 June 2012 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Preliminary stats for Duluth, April, 2012 indicated that there were 434 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 6.0 month supply of properties. Sales in March were 77, up from 70 a year earlier. Sales were up slightly compared to the prior month (75). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last four months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 172 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.8 month supply. The Absorption Rate for October, was 3.55. Sales in April were way up this year v last year (47 v 37), but only slightly up compared to last month (44). The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 110 listings for sale, and about 7.7 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but they are moving the right way now. Sales were down compared to April, 2011 (16 v 17) and compared to last month (19). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing that well… although it is one of the few to beat last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 47 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate was around 7.1 months. March brought in 6 sales. There was 1 last year and 6 last month. As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here. Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, but it’s better than last month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 39 listings, with about 13.0 months of supply. Sales were 5 for April… 8 for April last year. But, month to month sales were down (5 v 3). Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while. Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 24 homes listed and approximately 14.4 months of inventory on the market. The 1 sale recorded for April was down from last year’s 3 and from the 2 from last month. Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 5 sales for the last 3 months was killed by the same 3 months from last year (11 sales). It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t. And four month ago the A/R was 69 months.

Above $1m, there were 42 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 31.5 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 4 sales in the Feb-Apr period this year, and 7 for the same time last year. Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here instead of the 2 we got.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

Duluth, GA, Market Report, March 2012(lanebailey.com)

Duluth, GA, Market Report, February 2012 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, January 2012 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, December 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, November 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, October 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Duluth, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Flashback Friday… Duluth, O, Duluth… (lanebailey.com)
Is $1,000,000 Burning a Hole in Your Pocket? (lanebailey.com)

A Perfect Storm for “Move-Up Buyers”?

Wednesday, 30 May 2012 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

1 Comment

Interest rates are at historic lows… leading to incredible affordability.

Picture of the "Gingerbread House" in Essex, Connecticut, USA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Entry level inventories are at historic lows… leading to some price strength at base price levels.

Still some weakness at some “move-up” price levels… leading to great deals on homes at those price levels.

For a while now, many of us in the real estate world have been saying two things. First, until jobs come back and people feel secure, real estate would struggle. Second, the market wouldn’t come back until “move-up” buyers were in a position to make a move.

I don’t know that the majority of consumers are “comfortable” with their job situation, but when they are, the deals will start to dry up. Those that get off the fence early will have the best choice of bargains… and inventories are actually dropping.

Move-up buyers had been somewhat locked into their homes with crappy resale values. They couldn’t afford to move out and be in a position to put anything down on another house. But now that there is a bit of stability in in the entry level, more of those buyers ARE able to sell and move up the market.

If you want to see if you are in a position to trade up, give me a call. Lane Bailey 678-200-5895.

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, April 2012

Monday, 28 May 2012 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, April, 2012, indicate that there were 1082 properties on the market. Overall, there was about a 4.5 month supply of properties. In 2011, sales for last April were at 239, so 256 sales was a solid increase, year over year (229). Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August. This month we are rocking, better not than last month (275 sales).

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 910 listings, with about a 4.0 month supply of homes. Sales were well up from April, 2011 (237 v 209). This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 4.03 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories. Month over month sales were down, though, from 260 in March.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 150 listings for sale, and about 10.0 months of supply. Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack. The 18 sales for April, 2012 were down from the 20 from last year. They were up from the 14 sales last month. Sales should have been closer to 20 units for April. We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 16 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 12.0 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There were 1 sale for April, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months last June, through good, but sporadic sales. There were 0 sales in April, 2011. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 5 months ago). While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 3 listings, with about 9.0 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in April. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January. There was 1 sale in January 2012.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

Gwinnett Market Impressions…(lanebailey.com)

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, March 2012 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, February 2012 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, January 2012 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, December 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
I’m Always Up For a Good Surprise.. (lanebailey.com)
Gwinnett County Public Schools Making Changes… (lanebailey.com)

Buford, GA, Market Report, April 2012

Friday, 25 May 2012 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Buford, GA, April, 2012 indicate that there were 399 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 5.1 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R). There were 86 sales for April, flat from 86 last month and up from the 73 sales last April (2011). It isn’t the strongest market in Gwinnett, but it is much better than it has been.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 227 listings, with a 4.2 month supply. This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area. Sales were flat from last month 61, but up compared to last year (51 sales in April, 2011). But, the A/R is under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a solid seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 126 listings for sale, and about 6.2 months of supply. The 19 sales recorded were flat from the 19 from last month and down a bit from the 22 sales last year for April. This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but has improved dramatically and at current A/Rs, it is one of the stronger $200k-$400k segments in the county, again, with increasing strength.

From $400k to $600k, there were 24 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 8.0 Months. There have been 9 sales in the last 3 months (0 for February, 3 for March and 6 for April). When the market is rolling, there should be 6-8 sales a month during this part of the year. September was pretty strong, and but we didn’t have the follow-up the next two months I was looking for… December was back in the right direction, and the drop in listings certainly helps. January certainly wasn’t the month to call a recovery, nor February. March showed a little promise. April was nice. Just for comparison, there was 1 sale in the Feb.-Apr. period in 2011.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 6 listings. Absorption Rate is 4.5 months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 6 has made things look less slow… but there were 4 sales in this segment last year… and 3 sales in March. This is a sign of strength, but the low inventory is what is driving the incredible A/R.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 7 homes listed. But, with no sales last year (2011), obviously trends are hardly definable. Listings are down, but sales aren’t following through.

Above $1m, there were 9 properties listed. The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May, 2011… and 2 sales in June, 2011. So, we have 36 months of inventory. I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

Buford, GA, Market Report, March 2012 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, February 2012 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, December 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, November 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

But the News Said…

Wednesday, 23 May 2012 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

1 Comment

English: Change of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index relative to its peak values in 1989 and 2006. Series starting in 1989 is in blue. Series starting in 2006 is in red. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

One of the comments I hear the most is “but the news said…”. There are always stories on the news about the NAR (National Association of REALTORS®) market stats, Case-Shiller or others. Most of the statistics are based on national numbers. Case Shiller is a little more local, in that it is based on the local area… if you can call the Atlanta region “local”.

One thing I would note is that the Atlanta region DOES tend to track pretty close to national averages. But being pretty close isn’t the same as being the same. And even if it were, there is a huge difference between the Atlanta Metro area and Gwinnett County… much less Suwanee, or the Morningview subdivision.

And that is the problem…

We can’t listen to the news and have a clear picture of what it means for our house or our neighborhood. It would be the same as looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and deciding whether a specific stock was going to go up or down.

But that is exactly what people do… They see a report on the network news and then decide that houses are over-priced, under-priced or whatever. When the real fact is that some market segments are rocking bargains right now… there is too much inventory and not enough buyers. Other segments have scarce inventory and homes are selling as fast as they are listed (if they are priced appropriately). But the national news… or even the local news… can’t be that exact in their reporting.

Unlike a lot of real estate professionals, I don’t begrudge the news for reporting the “big picture” story on the real estate market. We DO need to know what is happening on a national basis. But we also need to remember that there are vast differences between neighborhoods, price ranges, ZIP codes, school areas, etc.

The best bet is to talk with a local agent… I have monthly market reports on 7 cities in Gwinnett County, GA. If this is your area, you can get a much better idea of what is going on around you. If you really want to know what is happening, let me know and we’ll talk about YOUR house.

Prices Up? Prices Down? WTH??(lanebailey.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, April 2012(lanebailey.com)
Case-Shiller Shows Uneven Recovery For U.S. Housing(edshort.wordpress.com)

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Category Archives: all posts

Duluth, GA, Market Report, April 2012

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

A Perfect Storm for “Move-Up Buyers”?

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, April 2012

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Buford, GA, Market Report, April 2012

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

But the News Said…

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, April 2012

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