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Gwinnett Market Impressions…

Friday, 06 April 2012 08:00
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Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrencev...

Gwinnett County Historic Courthouse, Lawrenceville GA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I won’t have the March sales figures for Gwinnett County for a few more days, but I do have a few thoughts on what I have seen from the Listing numbers I pulled down on the 1st of April.

Listings are down.  And that is weird.  VERY weird.  Not just down year over year… that isn’t weird at all.  But they are actually down from month to month.  And in this market, that doesn’t happen (although I can’t really say that now… because it just happened).  Looking back over the last few years, listings tended to bottom out in January… March would be up over February, April over March.  We’ve been going down for the last two months instead.

Of course, I still hear the media and a LOT of other real estate agents telling me about the “coming wave of foreclosures” just waiting for the banks to decide that they should release them.  If they had the “shadow inventory” everyone is talking about, they would be releasing it.  For this market, there wouldn’t be a better time.  Listings are down and this is when sales are generally moving up.

Looking back at the last year only confirms this.  We’ve seen Absorption Rates under 6 months in most of the segments with the dropping inventories.  (Translation: This isn’t a shocker…).

What does all of this mean?

Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County
Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I think we are seeing a bottom for some segments… specifically homes priced under $200,000 to $400,000 (I don’t know exactly where the line is… but homes under $200k are solid right now… homes over $400k are looking pretty shaky still).  Could prices erode further? Absolutely.  But I think that without a change for the worse in the economy, we are probably at the bottom of those properties here in Gwinnett County.  The higher price ranges might be bottoming or might not… but I have a lot less certainty over $400k.

There is actual competition for properties at the entry level.  Multiple offers and homes selling over list price.  The homes that are priced “right” are getting snapped up.  Over-priced houses are still languishing on the market, though.  But a couple of years ago, there was hardly a “priced right”.

 

Now we just need to get the higher priced segments moving again…

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, February 2012

Wednesday, 21 March 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , February, 2012 indicates that there are 159 homes on the market. Overall, there is about an 5.9 month supply. There were 20 sales, compared to 31 last month and 15 last February. The Absorption Rate (AR) increase, largely due to the decrease in sales.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 120 listings, with about 5.1 months supply. There were 18 sales this February, significantly than last year for the same time (12). But, last month there were 24 sales. Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling. Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month there was a slight increase.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 37 listings for sale, and about 10.1 months of supply. Last February there was an 11.3 month supply. There were 3 sales, this year there were 2. Last month had 7 sales.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there is 1 home on the market. The absorption rate is around 1 months, but with 3 sales in November (and those being the only sales since July), it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there is only 1 home listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, February 2012

Friday, 16 March 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, February, 2012, indicates that there were 358 properties on the market (as of February 29th).  Overall, there was about an 7.5 month supply of properties and 43 properties that closed (sold) in February.  It was an increase from last year’s sales (26) but a slight decrease from January (46 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down a bit.  Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 7.51 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 258 listings, with about an 6.2 month supply with 36 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales decreased slightly from last month (46), and were also up dramatically from last year (22).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m still pulling for a comeback for Lilburn.  The track is getting a little better.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 90 listings for sale, and about 15.0 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance.  There were 7 sales compared to 4 last year.  This segment really needs to get back into single digit A/Rs … but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.  But the decrease in listings has really helped.  I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet…  It is strengthening, just not as quickly as I’d like.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 5 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 7.5 months (one year average). There were 2 sales in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April. May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none since.  The apparent strength in the A/R isn’t from recent sales as much as from low listing vol

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, February 2012

Monday, 12 March 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, February, 2012 indicate that there were 433 properties on the market (down from 440 last month).  Overall, there was about a 7.3 month supply of properties (down from 7.9 last month).  February had 64 sales.  Compared to February, 2011 (53), this year was a stronger.  Inventory was down compared to 2011 (604).  The last six months had been very strong, but that came on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  February was stronger than January, but still not as strong as it was a few months ago.  It will be interesting to see if the strength carries through another month.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 133 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 4.3 month supply (131 and 4.4, respectively last year).  This February’s sales were WAY up, at 30 (22 last year, 17 last month).  This was definitely the strongest price segment in Suwanee.  I’m hoping that January was an anomaly.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 195 listings for sale (284 last year, 207 last month), and 8.4 months of supply.  Sales in February, 2012 were 27 (16 in January), compared with 26 for the same period in 2011.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.  And for the last few months, despite there being more listings in this segment, the under $200k segment has had more sales.

From $400k to $600k, there were 62 homes on the market.  The absorption rate was at 12.4 months (12.0 in January).  There were 4 sales in February (5 in January)… up by 3 compared to last January.  Looking at the three month average, there were 15 sales this year and 10 for the same period last year.  This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but stayed sort of weak this month.  We should be looking at close to 12 sales for March… I was hoping (but not expecting) 12 for February.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 15 listings, with about a 15 month supply (HUGE reduction from last month’s A/R of 51).  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 3 this month (0 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around.  For the last three months, sales were 3…  For the same time last year, the sales were 4.  With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county.  But until I see 2-3 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 4 homes listed and 12 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales at this price level last year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) .  This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 24 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 24 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (only 1 sale for October, 0 for November, 1 for December and 2 for January).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 27 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Foreclosures v. the Rest of the Market

Monday, 05 March 2012 08:00
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DSCN2908

DSCN2908 (Photo credit: lane.bailey)

RISMedia just posted a story a few days ago citing stats that 24% of all real estate sales nationwide are foreclosure.  That is down slightly from 26% in the 4th quarter of 2010.  And a little more striking piece of news was that short sales were up by 15% from a year ago while REO (foreclosure) sales were actually down 12% from a year ago.

As a real estate agent, I look at the stats a little different than others might.  To begin with, I would have thought that the number would have been higher.  Of course, there are local variations… and I think that in Gwinnett County, there is a significantly higher percentage of sales that are foreclosure related.

Looking at local listings, in many of my market area segments, more than half of the available listings are foreclosure or related (pre-foreclosure and short-sale or institutionally owned).  And a higher percentage of the sales would be foreclosure related… often because the prices are more attractive.

But overall, I think that this bodes well for the overall health of the local real estate market.  As foreclosed inventory depletes, more normalcy can be established in the market.

Of course, if you are a buyer, that means that you might want to jump in while the prices are still depressed and the mortgage rates are bouncing on the bottom.  Feel free to give me a call to take a look.  You can see my local market reports here.

 

Lane
garagehome [at] gmail [dot] com
678-200-5895

 

 

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