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Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2011

Monday, 26 December 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, November, 2011, indicates that there were 398 properties on the market (as of November 30th).  Overall, there was about an 8.2 month supply of properties and 41 properties that closed (sold) in November.  It was an increase from last year’s sales (35) and an decrease from October, 2011 (60 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down slightly.  Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 8.23 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 288 listings, with about an 7.0 month supply with 36 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales decreased markedly from last month (53), and were also up dramatically from last year (28).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m pulling for a comeback for Lilburn.  But October was quite strong… November was actually below expectations.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 9 listings for sale, and about 14.1 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and has stalled a little.  There were 5 sales compared to 6 last year.  This segment really needs to get back into single digit A/Rs … but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.  But the 9% decrease in listings has really helped.  I’m not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet…

From $400k to $600k, there are just 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 8.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April. May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none in August, September, October or November.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 7 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, November 2011

Friday, 23 December 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, November, 2011 indicate that there are 502 properties on the market (down from 579 last month).  Overall, there is about an 7.0 month supply of properties (up from 6.6 last month).  November had 53 sales.  Compared to 2010 (48), that was a little stronger.  Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (582).  The last five months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  November was a bit stronger than last year, but well down from October (83 sales).  Obviously, I like seeing continued strength here.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 161 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 5.3 month supply (156 and 8.5, respectively last year).  This November’s sales were OK, at 26 (just 15 last year).  This is definitely the strongest price segment in Duluth, but not that strong compared to some other areas of the county.  As recently as June 2010, the A/R was 4.8 months.  I was looking for a solid follow-up to last month’s 42 sales, but we didn’t get it.  While it was a good showing against last year, it was far from a good showing overall.  Hopefully we’ll see a similar number of sales for December…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 235 listings for sale (285 last year), and 7.0 months of supply.  Sales in November, 2011 were 23 (31 in October), compared with 27 for the same period in 2010.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.  Could be getting better…

From $400k to $600k, there are 57 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 10.1 months (6.6 in September).  There were 4 sales in November (8 in October)… flat compared to last November.  Looking at the three month average, there were 17 sales this year and 12 for the same period last year.  This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but like the lower price segments, dropped off heavily this month.  We should be looking at more than 10 sales for December… I’m not expecting it, though.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 17 listings, with about a 12.8 month supply (8.1 last month). Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 0 this month (1 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 4… For the same time last year, the sales were 2. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. But until I see 2-3 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 7 homes listed and 21 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales at this price level this year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) . This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 25 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 75 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (only 1 sale for October, 0 for November).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Friday, 16 December 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Buford, GA, October, 2011 indicate that there were 497 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about an 6.5 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R).  There were 77 sales for October, down slightly from 79 last month and up a good bit from 60 from last October (2010).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 279 listings, with a 5.2 month supply.  This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area.  Sales were down slightly from last month (51 v 55), but impressively strong compared to last year (37 sales in October, 2010).  Framed in the results for the whole market area, the segment is reasonably strong.  And the A/R is well under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 167 listings for sale, and about 8.6 months of supply. The 23 sales recorded were slightly above the 18 from last month and dead on the 23 sales last year for October.  This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but has improved dramatically… now it is unremarkable.  In this case, that is a HUGE improvement.

From $400k to $600k, there were 30 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is 8.2 Months.  There have been 11 sales in the last 3 months (3 sales for October, 6 sales for September, 2 for August).  When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year.  Last month was pretty strong, and but we didn’t have the follow-up this month I was looking for…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 7 listings. Absorption Rate is 21 months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 7 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 4 sales in this segment in the last year… the last was two months ago.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 6 homes listed.  And with only 2 sales in the last year (December, 2010), obviously trends are hardly definable.  Listings are down, but sales aren’t following through.

Above $1m, there were 8 properties listed.  The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… and 2 sales in June.  FINALLY, new sales! So, we have 16 months of inventory.  I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Wednesday, 14 December 2011 08:00
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You just have to love Zillow’s Zestimates.  Log in and look… poof… there is the Zestmate for your home.  Couldn’t be easier.  It’s almost too easy.  OK, it IS too easy.  And while I love the Zestimate just as much as everyone else, I also know that the chances of it being right are pretty slim.

"Lincoln Heights"I don’t want to slam Zestimates, though.  They actually ARE quite useful.  Their usefulness isn’t in their application to individual houses… it has more to do with looking at Zestimates for larger areas… ZIP codes, cities, regions.  The statistical variations that are the problem with looking at individual houses start cancelling each other out.  what we are left with is a pretty good measure of home values for an area.

Last year I posted up a breakdown of the Zestimate accuracy of individual listings in the Atlanta Metro Statistical Area.  The bottom line is that the Zestimate has about a 1 in 5 chance of giving you a value within 5% of the real market value of your house.  And the y are just as likely to be high as they are low.

If you are just curious, it is a fun tool.  If you REALLY need to know, you should talk with an Appraiser or a Real Estate Agent (depending on WHY you really need to know).  And remember, the real estate agent that tells you the highest value is probably wrong… and might even know they are wrong.  In the business, we call it “buying a listing”.  The strategy there is to promise a high listing price, and then come back after you are in a listing agreement and try to get the price down to where it should have been in the first place.  The biggest problem with that strategy is that it completely wastes the prime market time… when the house is first listed.  The end result is that the price usually ends up lower than if you had opted for a slightly lower price to begin with.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Monday, 12 December 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , October, 2011 indicates that there are 169 homes on the market. Overall, there is about an 5.0 month supply. There were 18 sales, compared to 27 last month and 20 last October. The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is largely due to a declining listings.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 118 listings, with about 4.8 months supply. There were 18 sales this October, slightly more than last year for the same time (17). Last month there were 25 sales. Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling. Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month was a big drop.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 44 listings for sale, and about 33 months of supply.  Last October there was an 14.8 month supply.  Last October there were 17 sales, this year there were 0.  Last month also had 2.  This segment is acting opposite of the under $200k segment, as well as opposite of stronger areas like Suwanee ($200k-$400k).

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 15 months, but with 4 sales since last October, it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. There were only 3 sales in this segment last year. In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range. I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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