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Duluth, GA, Market Report, November 2012

Friday, 22 February 2013 14:00
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Market stats for Duluth, November, 2012 indicated that there were 290 properties on the market, down 33 from last month. Overall, there was about a 3.8 month supply of properties. Sales in November were 59, way up from 61 a year earlier. Sales were way down compared to the prior month (81). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last few months. Good, but not pack leading at the moment.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 92 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 2.1 month supply. The Absorption Rate for last November, was 4.3. Sales in November were slightly up this year v last year (34 v 28), but down compared to last month (49). The Absorption Rate (A/R) is quite a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 96 listings for sale, and about 5.2 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again. Sales were up compared to November, 2011 (16 v 8) but down compared to last month (22). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing as well as I would have expected… but it might be constrained somewhat due to low inventories. It is still a slight Seller’s Market.

From $400k to $600k, there were 29 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate was around 5.4 months. November brought in 6 sales. There were 8 last year and 2 last month. Unlike many of the market areas, Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, especially at this price level. Usually we see the A/R soften as we move up in price, but that isn’t happening here.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 27 listings, with about 5.4 months of supply. Sales were 2 for November… 5 for last year. And month to month sales were down (2 v 4). Last month was good, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while. Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the much of the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 15 homes listed and approximately 7.5 months of inventory on the market. The 0 sales for November were edged the 1 last year, and by the 1 last month. Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 6 sales for the last 3 months killed the same 3 months from last year (1 sales). And ten months ago the A/R was 69 months.

Above $1m, there were 31 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 13.3 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 7 sales in the Sep-Nov period this year, and 4 for the same time last year. We should be posting four sales a month here regularly… and we fell short last month but almost hit it this month with 1 sales. Last month there were 3 sales and last year there was 1 for November.

 

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Yep… A Seller’s Market. But What Does That Mean NOW?

Tuesday, 05 February 2013 09:00
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Supply and Demand

Supply and Demand (Photo credit: ATENCION:)

Normally, a Seller’s Market means that conditions are generally better for sellers than for buyers.  There is, in effect, more demand than there is supply.  And, usually, that means that sellers are more in control of pricing and terms for their homes.  Prices generally rise and there are fewer demands made upon sellers in regards to inspections, and other concessions.

 

But things aren’t always “normal”.  Now is a great example of that.

Right now, the majority of Gwinnett is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  Below about half a million dollars, Absorption Rates remain under the magical 6 months… in some cases, even below 3 months.  Above half a million, things aren’t quite as rosy, but they are WAY stronger than they have been for years.

But all is not beer and pizza in Seller Land.  In fact, it may be FAR from fun to be a seller in today’s market, no matter what the numbers look like.  The reality is that bank-owned properties are skewing the numbers… or skewering, depending on how you want to look at it.  What has happened is that bank-owned inventory has come to dominate the market.  It may or may not be the majority, but there is enough of a presence that it pushes the pricing down for all of the homes that are actually selling.

Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing depends on whether you are a buyer or a seller.  As a buyer, it means that the homes you look are are either priced quite competitively (and don’t stay on the market very long) or they aren’t… and they stay on the market forever.

One of the ways that I can see this is by looking at the “Days on Market” (DoM) stats while preparing Market Reports.  They are jumping ALL over the place.  This isn’t a direct sign, but rather one that is more deduction.  In some segments I am seeing DoMs bounce from over 100 days to under 50 days and back over 100 in back to back to back months.  This means that homes that every once in a while a home that sells has been on the market a VERY long time… pushing up the average, then there are none of those “old-timers” the next month… then another one pops through.

What does it all mean?

Simply… as a buyer, if you see a home you like, and it is priced well, there will likely be competition for it.  Don’t expect that you can toss a low offer across the table and get a reply.  In fact, I have seen a LOT of multiple offer situations on well-priced properties.  As a seller, don’t expect that you can price your home at the level you thought it was worth a few years ago.  You are competing with bank-owned properties and their primary motivation is to not own the property any longer than they need to in order to almost break even… and their definition of break even may include insurance payments and government inducements to hurry up and sell it.

One may say that the worst aspects of both a seller’s market and a buyer’s market are present right now… fierce competition (for buyers) for the “right” properties and weak pricing for sellers).

If you really want to sell your property, let’s talk…

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, June 2012

Friday, 03 August 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Norcross GA, June, 2012 indicate that there were 229 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 3.9 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  June saw 70 sales, over the 57 for May, and below the 85 for June last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 133 listings, with about 3.4 month supply.  Sales are well up from last month and from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (45 v 68 in June11 & 37 May12).  For the last nine months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.  At just under a 3½ month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 70 listings for sale, and about 4.9 months of supply.  This segment had been weakening for the last few months.  But, the 20 sales rocked last year’s 15 sales, and last month’s 16 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  I’m still waiting for this segment to stop bouncing around so much.

From $400k to $600k, there were 22 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 5.1 months.  The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January.  June’s 5 sales were up from the 3 last month and way up from last year’s 1 sale.  This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell…  The good news is that it only takes a few sales to put it back in a balanced range long term.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 3 listings on the market.  Inventories tripled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 9 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.  February had 1 sale. The were 0 sales for June12, 0 for May12 and 1 for June11.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 0 homes listed on the market and 0 sales in June (1 sale for May).  There were no sales last year.  Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure.  The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, June 2012

Monday, 30 July 2012 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, June, 2012 indicated that there were 402 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about an 4.5 month supply of properties.  Sales in June were 98, WAY up from 60 a year earlier.  Sales were also up compared to the prior month (91). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last few months.  Good, but not pack leading at the moment.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 138 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 2.8 month supply.  The Absorption Rate for last June, was 6.5.  Sales in June were way up this year v last year (52 v 41), but only slightly up compared to last month (50).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is quite a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 122 listings for sale, and about 6.4 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but they are moving the right way now.  Sales were down compared to June, 2011 (21 v 13) and compared to last month (20).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing as well as I would have expected…

From $400k to $600k, there were 42 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate was around 4.7 months. June brought in 13 sales.  There were 2 last year and 8 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  But this could be the great turning point for this segment.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 45 listings, with about 11.3 months of supply.  Sales were 5 for June… 0 for last year.  And month to month sales were up (5 v 2).  Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 14 homes listed and approximately 3.2 months of inventory on the market.  The 6 sales recorded for June rocked last year’s 1 and tied last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 13 sales for the last 3 months bumped the same 3 months from last year (6 sales).  And six months ago the A/R was 69 months.

Above $1m, there were 41 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 15.4 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 8 sales in the Apr-June period this year, and 8 for the same time last year. We should be posting four sales a month here regularly… and we fell short this month with just 1 sale.  Last month there were 5 sales and last year there were 3 for June.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2012

Friday, 27 July 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, June, 2012, indicate that there were 1001 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 3.8 month supply of properties. In 2011, sales for June were at 276, so 272 sales was a slight decrease, year over year.  Last month’s sales were at 267.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking pretty good.  Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August.  This month we are rocking, in fact, some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we would be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 824 listings, with about a 3.4 month supply of homes.  Sales were well down from June, 2011 (248 v 254), although sales may very well be down because of constrained inventories.  Last year in this segment, there were 1309 listings v the 824 now.  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 3.43 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were down, though, from 235 in May.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 148 listings for sale, and about 6.2 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack.  The 23 sales for June, 2012 were only slightly up from the 21 from last year.  They were well below from the 31 sales last month.  But, we are close to Balanced Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 22 homes on the market (big jump from the 16 last month).  The absorption rate is around 33 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There was 1 sale for June, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months last June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There was 1 sale in June, 2011.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 six months ago).  While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 15 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in June. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January. There was 1 sale in January 2012 and 1 last month.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 2 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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