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Category Archives: atlanta

USA Today thinks prices are heading up…

Wednesday, 09 May 2012 09:21
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And they very may.

map for us unemployment numbers

map for us unemployment numbers (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

According to the article I ran across this morning, house prices should go up about 4% each year for the next year.  I can see that… especially on the entry level of the market.  On the upper end of the market, though, it isn’t looking like we’ll see recovery for a little while. Between taxes and other policies that aren’t that friendly towards small business, there isn’t a lot of short term optimism with many of the folks that buy more luxurious homes.

So… my take is this.  I see the lower end of the market performing well over the next few years.  The higher end of the market more tricky.  The middle of the market, as well.

On the entry level, investors are scooping up properties.  Prices have stabilized and we will likely see increases regardless of the political or business climate, unless there is a MAJOR reversal.  Many of the investors are buying and holding properties as rentals, and there are simply a lot of people out there that have good income but cannot buy because of foreclosures and short sales.  That will drive the entry level pricing picture.

selfmade image of U.S. Unemployment rate from ...

selfmade image of U.S. Unemployment rate from 1890-2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

At the middle of the market, there are a few competing stories.  Many of the move-up buyers are stuck in their current homes or have been through foreclosures and short sales.  But, there are some that will look at snapping up a deal when they feel comfortable about their employment prospects.  Right now, that simply isn’t the case.  We all hear that the Unemployment Rate is dropping, but what we are NOT seeing is the Employment Rate moving up.  The drop in “unemployment” is mostly tied to people giving up looking for work.  In fact, the Workforce Participation Rate is at a low point.  So, if people in the middle start to feel that the economy is stable, they will buy homes.

On the upper reaches of the market, there are a few different stories as well.  Foreclosures and Short Sales are a factor, but not as often as on the lower segments.  But, comfort is a major factor.  Most of these folks are business owners or senior employees.  Taxes and regulations are playing a major role in their decisions.  Talk from Washington of major tax increases and more difficult regulation are making them hold off… even when they see a bargain.  A more business friendly tone in DC could turn the tide for these buyers.

The big question… Where do YOU think the market is going, and why?

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, March 2012

Monday, 07 May 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Norcross GA, March, 2012 indicate that there were 253 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.5 month supply of properties.  The last year has been fairy strong… although April and May weren’t that strong (April, 2011 was below 2010)… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  February saw 51 sales, well under the 59 for February, 2011, and slightly over the 48 for February.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 136 listings, with about 3.7 month supply.  Sales are well off from last month and from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (36 v 43 in Mar11 & 42 Feb12).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At just over a 3½ month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 82 listings for sale, and about 11.7 months of supply.  This segment had been weakening for the last few months.  But, the 11 sales were OK compared to last year’s 10 sales, but kicked last month’s 4 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  We really need a strong March for this segment to look good.  Right now it is among the weakest in the county.

From $400k to $600k, there were 30 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 18 months.  The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January.  March’s 3 sales were up from the 1 the month before and down from last year’s 5 sales.  This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell…  The good news is that it would only take a few sales to put it back in a balanced range.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 2 listings on the market.  Inventories doubled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 6.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, the last in November, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.  February had 1 sale.  The were 0 sales for Mar12, 1 for Mar11.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 0 homes listed on the market and 1 sale in March.  There were no sales last year, nor last month.  Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there were 3 properties listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, March 2012

Friday, 04 May 2012 08:00
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Preliminary stats for Duluth, March, 2012 indicated that there were 431 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 7.6 month supply of properties.  Sales in March were 75, up from 65 a year earlier.  Sales were up a similar compared to the prior month (also 65).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last four months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 172 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 5.1 month supply.  The Absorption Rate for October, was 3.55.  Sales in March were way up this year v last year (44 v 30), but slightly down compared to last month (45).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 120 listings for sale, and about 9.7 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but they are moving the right way now.  Sales were down compared to March, 2011 (19 v 21) but way up compared to last month (8).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing that well… although it is one of the few to beat last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 39 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate was around 6.5 months.  March brought in 6 sales.  There were 5 last year and 8 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, but it’s better than last month… and one of a very few to have posted a better A/R than in the previous month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 36 listings, with about 15.4 months of supply.  Sales were 3 for March… 4 for March last year.  Month to month sales were up as well (3 v 1).  Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 22 homes listed and approximately 16.5 months of inventory on the market.  The 2 sales recorded for March was down from last year’s 3 and flat from the 2 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 4 sales for the last 3 months was killed by the the 3 months from last year (8 sales).  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t.  And two month ago the A/R was 69 months.

Above $1m, there were 42 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 63 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates.  There were 3 sales in the Jan-Mar period this year, and 3 for the same time last year.  Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here instead of the 1 we got.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Listing Inventory is Starting to Rise…

Wednesday, 02 May 2012 08:00
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at least a little.

I’ll be curious to see the sales statistics for Gwinnett County, but those won’t stabilize for about a week… but looking at the listing inventory, we are having a little more normal direction.  Of course, some segments are getting more inventory, others are still shrinking, but on the balance, it is moving toward normalcy.

For the last few months, inventories have been shrinking, especially at the entry level.  At the upper end of the market, there have been plenty of homes on the market, but under $200k, not so much.  Normally, from January through March or April, we see rising inventories.  In March or April, sales start to catch up, fewer people are coming into the market, inventory stabilizes and starts to slide a little going into summer.

Checking the levels on April 30th, levels seem to be starting to stabilize.

If sales continue to strengthen, I expect to see inventory start to decrease again as we move into summer… of course, it might also unleash some of the sellers that have been trying to “wait it out”.  They might think this is a good time to wring a little more out fo the sale of their homes.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

I should also mention that sales are reasonably strong, and interest rates are rocking.  but the deals are getting snapped up pretty quickly.

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, March 2012

Monday, 30 April 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, March, 2012, indicate that there were 1066 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 4.7 month supply of properties.  In 2011, sales for last March were at 239, so 275 sales was a solid increase, year over year.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking pretty good.  Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August.  This month we are rocking, better than last month (196 sales).

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 882 listings, with about a 4.1 month supply of homes.  Sales were well up from March, 2011 (260 v 220).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.10 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were way up from 181 in February.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 162 listings for sale, and about 14.3 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack.  The 14 sales for March, 2012 were down from the 16 from last year.  They were up ever so slightly from the 13 sales last month.  Sales should have been closer to 20 units for March.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 15 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 15.0 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 1 sale for March, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There was 2 sales in March, 2011.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 three months ago).  While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 4 listings, with about 12.0 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in March.  There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January.  There was 1 sale in January 2012.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate.  There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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