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Category Archives: buyers

Market Report Changes…

Wednesday, 27 February 2013 09:00
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I’m making a big change for the market reports from January, 2013, forward.

English: Chart showing the median and average ...

English: Chart showing the median and average sales prices of new homes sold in the United States by month/year. Based off of US Census Median and Average Sales Price of New Houses Sold Data. Please note that the sales price includes land. Also, the average from 1963-1974 inclusively, is annual, and not monthly. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Instead of tracking average Days on Market (DoM), I’m going to track median DoM.  It might not seem like much of a change, but I’m seeing segments where the average is 100+ days, while the median 50 or 60 days.  The reason for this is that the average is giving too much weight to a few outlier properties that might have 500 or more days on the market.

A while back, FMLS, the primary provider of the data I analyze, changed the way THEY calculated DoM.  The started tracking the property for total days on market instead of just the most recent listing.

While FMLS’s policy change made the data more accurate for individual listings, it also made it much less relevant for the market trends.  The median data is more accurate for market trends because it lowers the effects of the outliers.

I discontinued posting the DoM data in the market reports a while back because it ceased being useful, but I have continued to track it.  Moving forward, while I still probably won’t include the DoM data directly in the reports, I will allude to it as I see trends develop.

Enjoy…

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, November 2012

Tuesday, 26 February 2013 11:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...Market stats for Lilburn, GA, November, 2012, indicate that there were 244 properties on the market, down 4 from last month. Overall, there was about an 4.6 month supply of properties and 51 properties that closed (sold) in November. It was a increase from last year’s sales (41) and a decrease from October (52 sales). The Absorption Rate notched up slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 4.55 months of inventory, it is reasonably strong now. Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 173 listings, with about an 4.1 month supply with 38 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales decreased a bit from last month (44), but slightly up from last year (36). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn. At 4.09 months of inventory, with a few months of similar stats, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 62 listings for sale, and about 6.0 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance… only to stall a bit again. But it would be hard to follow up July. There were 12 sales compared to 7 last month and 5 last year. Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. The decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like. July month was quite strong. April was strong…

From $400k to $600k, there are just 6 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 6.0 months. There was 1 sale in November. Poised for a comeback, but an increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen. To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Feb12). If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back. Right now, low listings numbers give the appearance of strong activity.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 3 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students in the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, November 2012

Monday, 25 February 2013 14:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...Market stats for Norcross GA, November, 2012 indicate that there were 145 properties on the market, down 24 from last month. Overall, there is about a 2.9 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all. November saw 55 sales, above par compared to the 43 for October, but close to the 52 for November last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 85 listings, with about 2.3 month supply. Sales are up from last month and down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (37 v 45 in Nov11 & 30 Oct12). For the last eleven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers. This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At well under a 3 month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 46 listings for sale, and about 3.8 months of supply. This segment had been weakening for the last few months. But, the 15 sales was up from last year’s 4 sales, and was a little over last month’s 11 sales. Even though it isn’t as gangbusters as some of the other areas, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010. I’m still waiting for this segment to stop bouncing around so much, though.

From $400k to $600k, there were 12 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 9.0 months. The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January. November’s 3 sales were up from the 1 last month and from last year’s 1 sale. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… The good news is that it only takes a few sales to put it back in a balanced range long term. In June we were at just 5.1 months of inventory and last month it was 42 months…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there was 1 listings on the market. The Absorption Rate is at 3.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings. February had 1 sale. The were 0 sales for Nov12, 1 for Oct12 and 1 for Nov11.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 0 home listed on the market and 0 sales in October. There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, November 2012

Friday, 22 February 2013 14:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Duluth, November, 2012 indicated that there were 290 properties on the market, down 33 from last month. Overall, there was about a 3.8 month supply of properties. Sales in November were 59, way up from 61 a year earlier. Sales were way down compared to the prior month (81). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last few months. Good, but not pack leading at the moment.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 92 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 2.1 month supply. The Absorption Rate for last November, was 4.3. Sales in November were slightly up this year v last year (34 v 28), but down compared to last month (49). The Absorption Rate (A/R) is quite a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 96 listings for sale, and about 5.2 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again. Sales were up compared to November, 2011 (16 v 8) but down compared to last month (22). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing as well as I would have expected… but it might be constrained somewhat due to low inventories. It is still a slight Seller’s Market.

From $400k to $600k, there were 29 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate was around 5.4 months. November brought in 6 sales. There were 8 last year and 2 last month. Unlike many of the market areas, Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, especially at this price level. Usually we see the A/R soften as we move up in price, but that isn’t happening here.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 27 listings, with about 5.4 months of supply. Sales were 2 for November… 5 for last year. And month to month sales were down (2 v 4). Last month was good, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while. Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the much of the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 15 homes listed and approximately 7.5 months of inventory on the market. The 0 sales for November were edged the 1 last year, and by the 1 last month. Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 6 sales for the last 3 months killed the same 3 months from last year (1 sales). And ten months ago the A/R was 69 months.

Above $1m, there were 31 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 13.3 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 7 sales in the Sep-Nov period this year, and 4 for the same time last year. We should be posting four sales a month here regularly… and we fell short last month but almost hit it this month with 1 sales. Last month there were 3 sales and last year there was 1 for November.

 

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2012

Thursday, 21 February 2013 15:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, November, 2012, indicate that there were 775 properties on the market, down 19 from last month. Overall, there was about a 3.4 month supply of properties. In 2011, sales for November were at 233, so 208 sales was a decrease, year over year. Last month’s sales were at 247. Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August. This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we would be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 627 listings, with about a 3.0 month supply of homes. Sales were down from November, 2011 (189 v 216), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories. Last year in this segment, there were almost 1100 listings v just over 600 now. This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 2.97 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories. Month over month sales were down from 226 in October.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 129 listings for sale, and about 8.1 months of supply. Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side. The 17 sales for November, 2012 edged the 13 from last year, but and faded compared to the 18 sales last month. But, we had been close to Balanced Market territory here, but have slipped back to Buyer’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are 12 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 5.1 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There were 2 sales for November, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months last June, through good, but sporadic sales. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 33 six months ago). While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 4 listings, with about 12 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in November. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January. There was 1 sale in January 2012, 1 in May and 1 in October.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July, but none in August. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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