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Category Archives: buyers

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, April 2013

Monday, 27 May 2013 09:42
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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, April, 2013, indicate that there were 635 properties on the market, up 29 from last month. Overall, there was about a 3.4 month supply of properties. In 2012, sales for April were at 256, so 168 sales was a big decrease, year over year. Last month’s sales were at 217. But, coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January-February through about June-August. This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we could be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 465 listings, with about a 3.0 month supply of homes. Sales were down from April, 2012 (136 v 237), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories. Last year in this segment, there were over 900 listings v under 500 now. This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 3.01 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories. Month over month sales were down from 174 last month. Again, there was a big drop in listed properties for this month.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 147 listings for sale, and about 5.0 months of supply. Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side. The 31 sales for April, 2013 trounced the 18 from last year, but not the super strong 42 sales last month. We had been close but slipped back into Seller’s Market territory here… again.

From $400k to $600k, there are 17 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 25.5 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There was 1 sale for April, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months June11, through good, but sporadic sales. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 34 11 months ago and 4.5 four months ago). While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 3 listings, with about 12 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in April. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011. There were 4 sales in 2012.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July 12. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

 

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

 

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index
Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Buford, GA, Market Report, April 2013

Friday, 24 May 2013 11:49
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...Market stats for Buford, GA, April, 2013 indicate that there were 296 properties on the market, an decrease of 26 from last month. Overall, there was about an 4.0 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R). There were 90 sales for March, up from 67 last month and from the 86 sales last Apr12. It isn’t the strongest market in Gwinnett, but the A/R is nothing to sneeze at. It is still in Seller’s Market territory.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 111 listings, with a 2.7 month supply. This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area. Sales were up from last month 49 (v 42 last month), and well down compared to last year (61 sales in Apr12). But, the A/R is well under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a solid seller’s market. This time of year we are usually seeing an increase is sales… and listings.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 123 listings for sale, and about 4.5 months of supply. The 33 sales recorded were up from the 23 last month and up from the 19 sales last year for April. This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but had improved dramatically until last month it was fairly balanced, though tilted towards buyers… now it is further into Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 38 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 12.7 Months. There have been 9 sales in the last 3 months (2 for February, 0 for March and 7 for April). When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year. Just for comparison, there were 9 sales in the Feb-Apr period in 2012. This segment has been bouncing all over the place, though…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 8 listings. Absorption Rate is 24 months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 4 had made things look less slow… but they are back on the rise.  There were 0 sales in April last year and 0 in April this year.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 4 homes listed. Trends are hardly definable. Listings are down. June recorded the first sales since December, 2010. There was 0 sales in April. So it now has a 12.0 month Absorption Rate.

Above $1m, there were 12 properties listed. There was sale in the segment in April… of 2009…and then May, 2011… and 2 sales in June, 2011… also 1 in July and September, 2012. There was 1 sale in April. So, we have 18 months of inventory. I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier opened for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, April 2013

Monday, 20 May 2013 10:27
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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , April, 2013 indicates that there were 96 homes on the market. down 1 from last month. Overall, there is about an 3.4 month supply (4.5 last month). There were 26 sales, compared to 33 last month and 32 last April. Of course, then there were 152 listings on the market.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there were 56 listings, with about 2.9 months supply. There were 18 sales this April, a little below last year for the same time (25). There were 24 sales last month. Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling. This time of year we often see a slight increase in listings… but we are very low. In fact, sales may be stifled by lack of inventory.  Things have been a little choppy, though… up one month, down the next, then back up.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 36 listings for sale, and about 4.3 months of supply. Last April there was a 12.3 month supply. There were 7 sales then, this year there were 8. Last month had 9 sales. That makes four of the last five months look pretty strong. We are back in  Seller’s Market territory here.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 2 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 6.0 months, but with 0 sales this month, it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. I’ve finally started to see some consistency here. Hopefully we’ll have a little more action during the rest of the Spring selling season.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were 2 homes listed for sale in these price ranges. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, April, 2013

Friday, 17 May 2013 11:33
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...Market stats for Suwanee, GA, April, 2013 indicate that there were 353 properties on the market (up from 337 last month). Overall, there was about a 4.8 month supply of properties (up from 4.8 last month). April had 92 sales. Compared to April, 2012 (75), this year was WAY up, but inventory was down compared to 2012 (426). There were 65 sales last month, so this month rocked last. I think that part of the sales for this month were delayed from last month.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 56 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 2.6 month supply (compared to 3.5 months supply last year). This April’s sales were 24 (28 last year, 16 last month). It used to be a county leader, though, for now it is moving back to one of the best price/locale segments again. The next level up is coming up fast, though. Sales were likely limited by constricted inventory. Last year at this time, there were 117 listings.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 184 listings for sale (200 last year, 177 last month), and 4.5 months of supply. Sales in April, 2013 were 54 (38 in March), compared with 35 for the same period in 2012. Sales have been consistent for the last few months, but had fallen off somewhat, but may have started a recovery. I’d like to see it stay up past 50 sales or so for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks. Make no mistake, this is still basically in Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 65 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 8.5 months (8.7 in March). There were 11 sales in April (6 last month)… up from 10 last year at this time. Looking at the three month average, there were 23 sales this year and 24 for the same period last year. This segment had become dramatically stronger in the last couple of months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 20 listings, with about a 6.7 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 2 sales this month (3 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 9… For the same time last year, the sales were 6. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. It is fairly strong right now… we’ll have to see if it holds.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 11 homes listed and 33 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level in 2011. There were 7 in 2012. This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity. There was 1 sale in March.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 17 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 25.5 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. There was 1 sale in April, but 2 in the Feb-Apr time frame, 4 the year before.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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So, You Want To Be a Real Estate Investor…

Monday, 13 May 2013 09:08
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I had a call recently from a “would-be” real estate investor.  He wanted me to find a few properties for him to flip.  He’s been looking at the Atlanta market for a few years (his words) and decided that now was the time to jump in and flip some properties.

Atlanta

Atlanta (Photo credit: Lima Pix)

Specifically, he was looking for entry level homes that he could pick up needing a little work, maybe in the $50-75k range, needing $10-15k worth of renovation.  His goal was then to sell them for $100-$125k.  East peasy.

Except, it isn’t… 

In fact, right now that would be ANYTHING except easy peasy.  It would be quite difficult.  And here’s why…

  • A few Billion Dollars in “hedge fund money” floating around the Atlanta market
  • A market turn that while not “complete”, is far from unnoticed.
  • A limited inventory, especially on the entry level end.
  • Lack of easily available financing.
Billion Dollar Car

Billion Dollar Car (Photo credit: soul_motor)

This was a guy without a load of cash, unable to offer quicker closes than “the next guy”, and unable to out-spend the competition.  He was not only convinced that there was a glut of homes, but that he was completely in the driver’s seat on these types of deals.

That is NOT the case.  In fact, small investors are regularly SHOCKED at what the hedge funds are paying for houses right now.  They are bidding them up on the open market.  They are bidding them up on the Courthouse steps.  They are willing to pay top dollar whenever and where ever they find them.

They don’t care what they can sell them for right now.  They are looking at 5 year turns… with rental income in the mean time.  The “over-payment” will be erased by the rental income and the increase in values over the next few years.

If you want to compete right now, THAT is what you have to compete with.  A few years ago, you might have been able to pick up a cheap property and flip it… not so much any more.

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