Category Archives: buyers

Lilburn, GA Market Report, June, 2013

Monday, 12 August 2013 08:45

Written by Lane Bailey

1 Comment

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, June, 2013, indicate that there were 202 properties on the market, up 8 from last month. Overall, there was about an 3.9 month supply of properties and 43 properties that closed (sold) in June. It was a huge decrease from last year’s sales (77) and from May’s (61 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 3.94 months of inventory, it is strong now. Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 121 listings, with about an 3.0 month supply with 32 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales were down from last month (51), and down from last year (65). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 68 listings for sale, and about 6.4 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance… only to stall a bit again. There were 11 sales compared to 9 last month and 11 last year. Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. The decrease in listings had really helped, but they have started to rise again. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like… We are barely back in Buyer’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 12 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 36 months. There was 0 sales in June. Poised for a comeback, but an increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen. To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Mar12). If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back. We’re a LONG way from that now.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there is 1 listing (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. The listing between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for any of those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students in the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

Norcross, GA, Market Report, June 2013

Friday, 09 August 2013 09:22

Written by Lane Bailey

6 Comments

Market stats for Norcross GA, June, 2013 indicate that there were 158 properties on the market, up 35 from last month. Overall, there is about a 3.4 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairly strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all. June saw 48 sales, flat from the 48 last month, but down compared to the 70 for June last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 65 listings, with about 2.6 month supply. Sales are down a little from last month (27) and way down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (24 v 45 – Jun13 v Jun12). For the last two years, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers. This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At a 2.57 month A/R, this is pretty strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 68 listings for sale, and about 4.4 months of supply. This segment had been weakening for the last few months. But, the 20 sales were flat from last year’s 20 sales, and up from last month’s 16 sales. Even though it isn’t as gangbusters as some of the other areas, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010. I think this is starting to look like a pretty settled market here…

From $400k to $600k, there were 19 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 3.6 months. The AR had been fairly steady all summer, then shot WAY up in September/October. June’s 3 sales were down from the 5 last month and from last year’s 5 sales. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… for the last few months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 5 listings on the market. The Absorption Rate is at 7.5 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings. The was 1 sale for Jun13, 0 for May13 and 0 for Jun12.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 0 homes listed on the market and 0 sales in June. There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

State of the Market for the North Gwinnett HS Area

Wednesday, 07 August 2013 10:04

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Real estate is local… and one of the biggest influences in real estate is the local schools. Great schools spur demand. Mediocre schools lag. People actively seek a way out of bad school districts. It isn’t the only thing that pushes value and demand, but it certainly is one of the big drivers.

Transportation, jobs and local amenities are also drivers. Depending on the type of buyers, things like hospitals may pull one demographic, while shopping and restaurants may pull in another.

In the case of the schools in the NGHS cluster (Roberts, Suwanee, Level Creek and Riverside Elementary; North Gwinnett Middle School and North Gwinnett High School), there is a draw from the quality of the schools. People WANT to be in this area to have access to these schools.

Because of that, we are seeing prices push up and inventories push down. In fact, when looking at the sales, the recent decreases look to be largely because there simply isn’t enough inventory to support more sales. So, while at first glance it may look like this area is slowing down, the problem is that there just isn’t any supply to allow a higher number of sales. The North Gwinnett Cluster consists of parts of Suwanee and a little bit of Sugar Hill.

Since schools are one of the big drivers of demand, MANY consumers search for real estate based on schools. Unfortunately, there are a lot of homes that are incorrectly entered, causing homes that are NOT in the cluster to land in the search results… and even throwing off the statistics, as homes outside of the correct area are included in statistical samples.

Working with an agent that lives and works in the area you are interested in helps to sort out some of the chaff… but even then I see a lot of agents that have been in the market area a long time kind of “forget” that several new schools opened 3 years ago… and that the alignment and attendance zones changed. One easy way to tell… any listing with North Gwinnett High School and Lanier Middle School together is wrong…

If you are interested in a home in the North Gwinnett Cluster, or if you want to sell your home in the North Gwinnett Cluster, give Lane a call…

Duluth, GA, Market Report, June 2013

Monday, 05 August 2013 09:13

Written by Lane Bailey

2 Comments

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Duluth, June, 2013 indicated that there were 291 properties on the market, up 15 from last month. Overall, there was about a 4.0 month supply of properties. Sales in June were 79, down from 98 a year earlier. Sales were down compared to the last month (80). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last few months. It is still in the Seller’s Market zone.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 78 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 2.5 month supply. The Absorption Rate for last June was 2.8. Sales were WAY down this year v last year (35 v 52), and up compared to last month (31). The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than much of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 83 listings for sale, and about 3.5 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again. Sales were up compared to June, 2012 (28 v 21) and compared to last month (25). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing as well as I would have expected… but it might be constrained somewhat due to low inventories. It is still a Seller’s Market.

From $400k to $600k, there were 31 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate was around 3.7 months. June brought in 5 sales. There were 13 last year and 11 last month. Unlike many of the market areas, Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, especially at this price level. Last month saw a HUGE drop in the A/R. We’ve spent the last few months wandering around in Buyer’s Market territory. However, because of the drop in listings and increase in sales, this is ostensibly the best Seller’s Market in the county.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 33 listings, with about 7.1 months of supply. Sales were 4 for June… 5 for last year. And month to month sales were down a little (4 v 5). I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while. Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it has been looking better than the much of the rest of the County at this price level. That A/R is great, and getting better.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 8.6 months of inventory on the market. The 5 sales for June were worse than the 6 last year and the 0 last month. Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 8 sales for the last 3 months were well under the same 3 months from last year (13 sales).

Above $1m, there were 43 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 11.7 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 11 sales in the Apr-Jun period this year, and 8 for the same time last year. We should be posting four sales a month here regularly… and we fell short the last few months but barely had a start with it this month with 2 sales. There was 1 sale last year and there was 8 last month.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

Is $1,000,000 Burning a Hole in Your Pocket? (lanebailey.com)

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2013

Friday, 02 August 2013 08:58

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, June, 2013, indicate that there were 657 properties on the market, up 10 from last month. Overall, there was about a 3.4 month supply of properties. In 2012, sales for June were at 272, so 211 sales was a big decrease, year over year. Last month’s sales were at 207. But, coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January-February through about June-August. This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we could be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 456 listings, with about a 2.9 month supply of homes. Sales were down from June, 2012 (169 v 248), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories. Last year in this segment, there were over 800 listings v under 460 now. This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 2.85 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories. Month over month sales were down from 175 last month.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 172 listings for sale, and about 5.2 months of supply. Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side. The 39 sales for June, 2013 was well over the 29 from last month, and destroyed the 23 sales last year. We are barely into Buyer’s Market territory here… again. Month to month there is a lot of volitility, but over the longer term, it is WAY better than it had been.

From $400k to $600k, there are 20 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 10 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There were 3 sales for June, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months June11, through good, but sporadic sales. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 25.5 two months ago). While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 15 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in June. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011. There were 4 sales in 2012. May booked the only sale so far in 2013.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 4 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July 12. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.