Category Archives: buford

Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Friday, 16 December 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Buford, GA, October, 2011 indicate that there were 497 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 6.5 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R). There were 77 sales for October, down slightly from 79 last month and up a good bit from 60 from last October (2010).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 279 listings, with a 5.2 month supply. This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area. Sales were down slightly from last month (51 v 55), but impressively strong compared to last year (37 sales in October, 2010). Framed in the results for the whole market area, the segment is reasonably strong. And the A/R is well under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 167 listings for sale, and about 8.6 months of supply. The 23 sales recorded were slightly above the 18 from last month and dead on the 23 sales last year for October. This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but has improved dramatically… now it is unremarkable. In this case, that is a HUGE improvement.

From $400k to $600k, there were 30 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 8.2 Months. There have been 11 sales in the last 3 months (3 sales for October, 6 sales for September, 2 for August). When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year. Last month was pretty strong, and but we didn’t have the follow-up this month I was looking for…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 7 listings. Absorption Rate is 21 months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 7 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 4 sales in this segment in the last year… the last was two months ago.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 6 homes listed. And with only 2 sales in the last year (December, 2010), obviously trends are hardly definable. Listings are down, but sales aren’t following through.

Above $1m, there were 8 properties listed. The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… and 2 sales in June. FINALLY, new sales! So, we have 16 months of inventory. I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Wednesday, 14 December 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

You just have to love Zillow’s Zestimates. Log in and look… poof… there is the Zestmate for your home. Couldn’t be easier. It’s almost too easy. OK, it IS too easy. And while I love the Zestimate just as much as everyone else, I also know that the chances of it being right are pretty slim.

I don’t want to slam Zestimates, though. They actually ARE quite useful. Their usefulness isn’t in their application to individual houses… it has more to do with looking at Zestimates for larger areas… ZIP codes, cities, regions. The statistical variations that are the problem with looking at individual houses start cancelling each other out. what we are left with is a pretty good measure of home values for an area.

Last year I posted up a breakdown of the Zestimate accuracy of individual listings in the Atlanta Metro Statistical Area. The bottom line is that the Zestimate has about a 1 in 5 chance of giving you a value within 5% of the real market value of your house. And the y are just as likely to be high as they are low.

If you are just curious, it is a fun tool. If you REALLY need to know, you should talk with an Appraiser or a Real Estate Agent (depending on WHY you really need to know). And remember, the real estate agent that tells you the highest value is probably wrong… and might even know they are wrong. In the business, we call it “buying a listing”. The strategy there is to promise a high listing price, and then come back after you are in a listing agreement and try to get the price down to where it should have been in the first place. The biggest problem with that strategy is that it completely wastes the prime market time… when the house is first listed. The end result is that the price usually ends up lower than if you had opted for a slightly lower price to begin with.

Change to Local Market Reports (lanebailey.com)
Wayback Wednesday… Absorption Rate, What Is It? (lanebailey.com)
How to Figure Internet Home Values (online.wsj.com)
Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices (lanebailey.com)

Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Monday, 07 November 2011 08:44

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Buford, GA, September, 2011 indicate that there were 506 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 6.6 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R). There were 79 sales for August, up slightly from 75 last month and up significantly from 52 from last September (2010).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 270 listings, with a 4.7 month supply. This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area. Sales were down slightly from last month (55 v 56), but impressively strong compared to last year (33 sales in September, 2010). Framed in the results for the whole market area, the segment is reasonably strong. And the A/R is well under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 175 listings for sale, and about 10.7 months of supply. The 18 sales recorded were slightly above the 17 from last month and the 17 sales last year for September. As strong as the Under $200k segment is, this one is MUCH weaker. It is one of the weaker areas in the county for this price. Of course, last September, the A/R was just over 17 months.

From $400k to $600k, there were 37 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 1.3 Months. There has been 9 sales in the last 3 months (6 sales for September, 2 for August, 1 for July). When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year. This is the first time in a while that we have been there. This segment had been acting like a luxury segment with sporadic sales for the last few months. I’d really like to see a follow-up with 4-5 sales for October.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 5 listings. Absorption Rate is 15 months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 5 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 5 sales in this segment in the last year… the last was two months ago.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 11 homes listed. And with only 2 sales in the last year (December, 2010), obviously trends are hardly definable. Listings are up, but sales aren’t following, though.

Above $1m, there were 9 properties listed. The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… and 2 sales in June. FINALLY, new sales! So, we have 13.5 months of inventory. I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

Buford, GA, Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices

Wednesday, 02 November 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Three years ago I wrote about a quiet little map that the NAR (National Association of REALTORSS®) had built (and they’re still populating with data) showing the median home prices of various metro areas around the country. It is pretty interesting to see median prices around the country and compare them with the prices here (or where you live).

View Metropolitan Sales Areas Q1 2011 in a larger map

There is a dark side, though. That would be looking at the numbers in historical perspective. Here is a quote from 3 years ago:

For the 2nd Quarter, the Atlanta area was at $158,300, which was down 9.8% from the 1st Quarter.

Now, the Median Home Price here is a little more challenging. For the 1st Quarter this year the Median Home Price was $99,800, and that was down 9.4% from a year ago. More importantly, it is down about 37% from three years ago. I don’t have a complete set of data, but I suspect that the median price has dropped around 50% in Metro Atlanta.

One important note here is that this does NOT mean that the value of any particular house has dropped 50%, or that the average value of homes have dropped 50%. There is NO mistaking that home prices have crashed and burned… then crashed some more. But there has also been a shift in the last couple of years towards less expensive homes.

Be sure to keep an eye my local market reports for more specific data about individual areas of Gwinnett County.

White House Quote of the Day (bokertov.typepad.com)

Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

Wednesday, 12 October 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Old photo of the estate Hollander Höfe (Höben)...

Image via Wikipedia

Three years ago I published a little article about how housing starts were at their lowest level since 1991… There were 820,000 starts in September of 2008. And to me, that was a good thing. If there is too much inventory, making more inventory isn’t the best idea.

Well… that was three years ago. In August of 2011 (the last month with available numbers that I could find) there were 571,000 starts. And furthermore, aside from a couple of bumps, starts have been bouncing along under 600,000 starts since December of 2008. And I STILL say that it is a good thing.

Inventory is WAY more balanced than it was, even compared to just a year ago. However, values are still well below where they should be. And there are still the persistent rumors that “the banks” are going to release millions of foreclosed homes that are “in the pipeline”. Personally, I have been discounting those rumors for a few years… because the same rumors have been around for several years. For a couple of years now, there have been rumors alluding to “shadow inventory” that was 3-6 months from the market.

So, if inventory is balancing, and starts have been down for years, how could I think that they need to stay low longer? Well, it comes down to a few factors…

Pricing… It still doesn’t pay for builders to put up houses in many markets. Basically, pricing almost has to be below the cost of materials plus land in order to get the house sold.
Vacant Inventory… Even in the depths of the crash, I didn’t see as many vacant homes as I do now. I don’t have stats to back it up, but it seems like vacant inventory is surging. (BTW, I think that is actually a sign of a recovery forming…)
Buyer Fear… Despite incredibly low interest rates on mortgages and very low prices on homes (even Clark Howard is saying it might be time to move back into real estate), most buyers are still nervous.

Oddly, if you look over my market reports, I specifically refer to a couple of segments as being WELL into Seller’s Market territory. And it is hard to square these two points…. that there is an active Seller’s Markets (in some segments) AND that starts need to stay low because the market is still weak. But it comes down to averages… One city might be rocking the sales, while just up the road everything is stagnant.

Location…

Housing Start Source.

Wayback Wednesday… From the Meltdown. (lanebailey.com)
Chart of the Day: Housing Starts vs. Unemployed (craigkamman.wordpress.com)
Wayback Wednesday… Bankrupt Subdivisions… Good Deal? (lanebailey.com)
Time to be bullish US Home Builders? (part 2) (tradingfloor.com)

Page 9 of 19

What's YOUR Home Worth?

Custom Listings

Browse Listings

Follow Me on Pinterest

Category Archives: buford

Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices

Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

What's YOUR Home Worth?

Custom Listings

Browse Listings

Follow Me on Pinterest

Category Archives: buford

Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Related articles

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Share this:

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Related articles

Share this:

Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Related articles

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Share this:

Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices

Related articles

Share this:

Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

Related articles

Share this: