Category Archives: lawrenceville

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2011

Friday, 06 January 2012 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, November, 2011, indicate that there were 1288 properties on the market. Overall, there was about a 5.2 month supply of properties. In 2010, sales for November were at 153, so 233 sales was a rocking increase, year over year. Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking great. Normally they start weakening in September, but we are rolling right along… not quite as much as last month… but rolling, none the less.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 1089 listings, with about a 4.7 month supply of homes. Sales were way up from November 2010 (216 v 139). This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 4.73 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with slightly lower inventories. In September I was hoping that October would be a follow up… and it VERY much is what I was looking for… November reinforced that.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 174 listings for sale, and about 13.4 months of supply. Oddly, this was one of the weaker segments in the county, again. With as strong as the segment down was, this one was weak, again. The 13 sales for October, 2011 were down from the 14 from last year. Sales should have been closer to 25 units for November. We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 19 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 7.1 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There were 4 sales for November, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June, through good, but sporadic sales. There were 0 sales in November, 2010. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 16.5 last month). While the long term trend is looking better, it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 6 listings, with about 18 months of supply, again. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in the last three months.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 0 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
I’m Always Up For a Good Surprise.. (lanebailey.com)
Gwinnett County Public Schools Making Changes… (lanebailey.com)

Wayback Wednesday… How Were My Prognostications?

Wednesday, 04 January 2012 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Last year I wrote one of those “wonderful” annual prognostication posts with my guesses on what we would be looking at during the same time next year… and that would be now.

Image by dougtone via Flickr

Here is a link to the old post. I’ll have the quick version below, but if you want to see the context, knock yourself out…

I predict that next year there will STILL be people talking about the coming giant wave of Shadow Inventory. Well, I have to say that I hit that one. Inventories are dropping, but the general buzz in the biz is that there is a huge wave of “Shadow Inventory” just around the bend. Of course, it has been there (just around the corner) for a few years now…
Interest Rates ARE going to rise. They did… a little… but they are down. I was wrong.
… there will be another wave of government intervention… I hoped I would be wrong on this one, and I was.
The entry level market (under $200k) is well on the way to recovery… and that will continue. I hit that one right. The entry level market is pretty much rocking in Gwinnett County.
And I don’t think we will see a meaningful recovery in prices for the Luxury Market (above $600k). Talk about a hurting market segment… Unfortunately, I hit that one on the head.
The “Near Luxury” segment (from $200k-$600k) will be mixed. That one is pretty close. There are some markets that we are seeing a meaningful recovery for this price level… and other, not so much. A few are just waffling.
I don’t see Unemployment going under 9% during 2011. How do I rate this one? Officially, I am wrong. However, most of the improvement hasn’t been from job creation, but rather from people giving up. The December numbers are supposed to be released later today…

I went 4 for 7… maybe 5 for 7, depending on how you want to score the last one.

Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts (lanebailey.com)
Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices (lanebailey.com)
Wayback Wednesday… From the Meltdown. (lanebailey.com)

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Wednesday, 14 December 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

You just have to love Zillow’s Zestimates. Log in and look… poof… there is the Zestmate for your home. Couldn’t be easier. It’s almost too easy. OK, it IS too easy. And while I love the Zestimate just as much as everyone else, I also know that the chances of it being right are pretty slim.

I don’t want to slam Zestimates, though. They actually ARE quite useful. Their usefulness isn’t in their application to individual houses… it has more to do with looking at Zestimates for larger areas… ZIP codes, cities, regions. The statistical variations that are the problem with looking at individual houses start cancelling each other out. what we are left with is a pretty good measure of home values for an area.

Last year I posted up a breakdown of the Zestimate accuracy of individual listings in the Atlanta Metro Statistical Area. The bottom line is that the Zestimate has about a 1 in 5 chance of giving you a value within 5% of the real market value of your house. And the y are just as likely to be high as they are low.

If you are just curious, it is a fun tool. If you REALLY need to know, you should talk with an Appraiser or a Real Estate Agent (depending on WHY you really need to know). And remember, the real estate agent that tells you the highest value is probably wrong… and might even know they are wrong. In the business, we call it “buying a listing”. The strategy there is to promise a high listing price, and then come back after you are in a listing agreement and try to get the price down to where it should have been in the first place. The biggest problem with that strategy is that it completely wastes the prime market time… when the house is first listed. The end result is that the price usually ends up lower than if you had opted for a slightly lower price to begin with.

Change to Local Market Reports (lanebailey.com)
Wayback Wednesday… Absorption Rate, What Is It? (lanebailey.com)
How to Figure Internet Home Values (online.wsj.com)
Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices (lanebailey.com)

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2011

Friday, 02 December 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, October, 2011, indicate that there were 1346 properties on the market. Overall, there was about a 5.2 month supply of properties. In 2010, sales for October were at 154, so 263 sales was a pretty good increase, year over year. Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking great. Normally they start weakening in September, but we are rolling right along… even more than last month… but just slightly.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 1133 listings, with about a 4.7 month supply of homes. Sales were way up from October 2010 (228 v 138). This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 4.69 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with slightly lower inventories. Last month I was hoping that October would be a follow up… and it VERY much is what I was looking for.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 184 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply. Oddly, this was one of the weaker segments in the county, again. With as strong as the segment down was, this one was weak, again. The 15 sales for October, 2011 were down from the 16 from last year. Sales should have been closer to 25 units for October. We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 22 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 16.5 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. August saw no sales and September only had 3, so even though there were 1 sale for October, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June. There were 0 sales in October, 2010. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales. While the long term trend is looking better, it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 6 listings, with about 18 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in the last three months. This is one of the few segments I track anywhere in the county to have an increase in the number of listings.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there is 1 home listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, September 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
I’m Always Up For a Good Surprise.. (lanebailey.com)
Gwinnett County Public Schools Making Changes… (lanebailey.com)

Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices

Wednesday, 02 November 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Three years ago I wrote about a quiet little map that the NAR (National Association of REALTORSS®) had built (and they’re still populating with data) showing the median home prices of various metro areas around the country. It is pretty interesting to see median prices around the country and compare them with the prices here (or where you live).

View Metropolitan Sales Areas Q1 2011 in a larger map

There is a dark side, though. That would be looking at the numbers in historical perspective. Here is a quote from 3 years ago:

For the 2nd Quarter, the Atlanta area was at $158,300, which was down 9.8% from the 1st Quarter.

Now, the Median Home Price here is a little more challenging. For the 1st Quarter this year the Median Home Price was $99,800, and that was down 9.4% from a year ago. More importantly, it is down about 37% from three years ago. I don’t have a complete set of data, but I suspect that the median price has dropped around 50% in Metro Atlanta.

One important note here is that this does NOT mean that the value of any particular house has dropped 50%, or that the average value of homes have dropped 50%. There is NO mistaking that home prices have crashed and burned… then crashed some more. But there has also been a shift in the last couple of years towards less expensive homes.

Be sure to keep an eye my local market reports for more specific data about individual areas of Gwinnett County.

White House Quote of the Day (bokertov.typepad.com)

Page 8 of 19

Browse Listings

What's YOUR Home Worth?

Custom Listings

Follow Me on Pinterest

Category Archives: lawrenceville

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2011

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Wayback Wednesday… How Were My Prognostications?

I went 4 for 7… maybe 5 for 7, depending on how you want to score the last one.

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2011

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices

Browse Listings

What's YOUR Home Worth?

Custom Listings

Follow Me on Pinterest

Category Archives: lawrenceville

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, November 2011

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Related articles

Share this:

Wayback Wednesday… How Were My Prognostications?

I went 4 for 7… maybe 5 for 7, depending on how you want to score the last one.

Related articles

Share this:

Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Related articles

Share this:

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, October 2011

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Related articles

Share this:

Wayback Wednesday… Median Home Prices

Related articles

Share this: