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Category Archives: suwanee

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, December 2011

Monday, 16 January 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, December, 2011 indicate that there are 468 properties on the market (down from 502 last month).  Overall, there is about an 6.7 month supply of properties (down from 7.0 last month).  December had 74 sales.  Compared to 2010 (46), this year was a stronger.  Inventory was down compared to 2010 (548).  The last five months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  December was much stronger than last year, and from November (53 sales).  Obviously, I like seeing continued strength here.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 152 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 4.0 month supply (161 and 5.0, respectively last year).  This December’s sales were solid, at 46 (just 13 last year).  This is definitely the strongest price segment in Suwanee.  I was looking for a solid follow-up to October’s 42 sales, but we didn’t get it in November.  Hopefully we’ll see a similar number of sales for January…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 209 listings for sale (249 last year), and 8.4 months of supply.  Sales in December, 2011 were 21 (31 in November), compared with 25 for the same period in 2010.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.  Could be getting better… but not this month.

From $400k to $600k, there are 59 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is at 9.8 months (10.1 in November).  There were 6 sales in December (4 in November)… up by 2 compared to last December.  Looking at the three month average, there were 18 sales this year and 11 for the same period last year.  This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but like the next lower price segment, dropped off heavily this month.  We should be looking at close to 10 sales for January… I was hoping (but not expecting) 10 for December.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 17 listings, with about a 51 month supply (12.8 last month).  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 0 this month (0 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around.  For the last three months, sales were 1…  For the same time last year, the sales were 3.  With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county.  But until I see 2-3 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 5 homes listed and 15 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales at this price level this year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) .  This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 26 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 39 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (only 1 sale for October, 0 for November and 1 for December).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 24 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… How Were My Prognostications?

Wednesday, 04 January 2012 08:00
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Last year I wrote one of those “wonderful” annual prognostication posts with my guesses on what we would be looking at during the same time next year… and that would be now.

Gwinnett County, Georgia

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Here is a link to the old post.  I’ll have the quick version below, but if you want to see the context, knock yourself out…

  • I predict that next year there will STILL be people talking about the coming giant wave of Shadow Inventory.  Well, I have to say that I hit that one.  Inventories are dropping, but the general buzz in the biz is that there is a huge wave of “Shadow Inventory” just around the bend.  Of course, it has been there (just around the corner) for a few years now…
  • Interest Rates ARE going to rise.  They did… a little… but they are down.  I was wrong.
  • … there will be another wave of government intervention…  I hoped I would be wrong on this one, and I was.
  • The entry level market (under $200k) is well on the way to recovery… and that will continue.  I hit that one right.  The entry level market is pretty much rocking in Gwinnett County.
  • And I don’t think we will see a meaningful recovery in prices for the Luxury Market (above $600k).  Talk about a hurting market segment…  Unfortunately, I hit that one on the head.
  • The “Near Luxury” segment (from $200k-$600k) will be mixed.  That one is pretty close.  There are some markets that we are seeing a meaningful recovery for this price level… and other, not so much.  A few are just waffling.
  • I don’t see Unemployment going under 9% during 2011.  How do I rate this one?  Officially, I am wrong.  However, most of the improvement hasn’t been from job creation, but rather from people giving up.  The December numbers are supposed to be released later today…

I went 4 for 7… maybe 5 for 7, depending on how you want to score the last one.

 

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, November 2011

Friday, 23 December 2011 08:00
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, November, 2011 indicate that there are 502 properties on the market (down from 579 last month).  Overall, there is about an 7.0 month supply of properties (up from 6.6 last month).  November had 53 sales.  Compared to 2010 (48), that was a little stronger.  Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (582).  The last five months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  November was a bit stronger than last year, but well down from October (83 sales).  Obviously, I like seeing continued strength here.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 161 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 5.3 month supply (156 and 8.5, respectively last year).  This November’s sales were OK, at 26 (just 15 last year).  This is definitely the strongest price segment in Duluth, but not that strong compared to some other areas of the county.  As recently as June 2010, the A/R was 4.8 months.  I was looking for a solid follow-up to last month’s 42 sales, but we didn’t get it.  While it was a good showing against last year, it was far from a good showing overall.  Hopefully we’ll see a similar number of sales for December…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 235 listings for sale (285 last year), and 7.0 months of supply.  Sales in November, 2011 were 23 (31 in October), compared with 27 for the same period in 2010.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.  Could be getting better…

From $400k to $600k, there are 57 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 10.1 months (6.6 in September).  There were 4 sales in November (8 in October)… flat compared to last November.  Looking at the three month average, there were 17 sales this year and 12 for the same period last year.  This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but like the lower price segments, dropped off heavily this month.  We should be looking at more than 10 sales for December… I’m not expecting it, though.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 17 listings, with about a 12.8 month supply (8.1 last month). Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 0 this month (1 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 4… For the same time last year, the sales were 2. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. But until I see 2-3 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 7 homes listed and 21 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales at this price level this year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) . This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 25 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 75 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (only 1 sale for October, 0 for November).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Wednesday, 14 December 2011 08:00
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You just have to love Zillow’s Zestimates.  Log in and look… poof… there is the Zestmate for your home.  Couldn’t be easier.  It’s almost too easy.  OK, it IS too easy.  And while I love the Zestimate just as much as everyone else, I also know that the chances of it being right are pretty slim.

"Lincoln Heights"I don’t want to slam Zestimates, though.  They actually ARE quite useful.  Their usefulness isn’t in their application to individual houses… it has more to do with looking at Zestimates for larger areas… ZIP codes, cities, regions.  The statistical variations that are the problem with looking at individual houses start cancelling each other out.  what we are left with is a pretty good measure of home values for an area.

Last year I posted up a breakdown of the Zestimate accuracy of individual listings in the Atlanta Metro Statistical Area.  The bottom line is that the Zestimate has about a 1 in 5 chance of giving you a value within 5% of the real market value of your house.  And the y are just as likely to be high as they are low.

If you are just curious, it is a fun tool.  If you REALLY need to know, you should talk with an Appraiser or a Real Estate Agent (depending on WHY you really need to know).  And remember, the real estate agent that tells you the highest value is probably wrong… and might even know they are wrong.  In the business, we call it “buying a listing”.  The strategy there is to promise a high listing price, and then come back after you are in a listing agreement and try to get the price down to where it should have been in the first place.  The biggest problem with that strategy is that it completely wastes the prime market time… when the house is first listed.  The end result is that the price usually ends up lower than if you had opted for a slightly lower price to begin with.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2011

Friday, 09 December 2011 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, October, 2011 indicate that there are 539 properties on the market (down from 579 last month).  Overall, there is about an 6.6 month supply of properties (down from 6.7 last month).  October had 83 sales.  Compared to 2010 (58), that was VERY strong.  Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (601).  The last four months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  Obviously, I like seeing continued strength here.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 177 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 5.2 month supply (159 and 8.7, respectively last year).  This August’s sales were OK, at 42 (just 22 last year).  This is definitely the strongest price segment in Duluth, but not that strong compared to some other areas of the county.  As recently as June 2010, the A/R was 4.8 months.  I was looking for sales to hit 35+, and they did… we need a good follow-up month for November.  I should start having good numbers soon.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 246 listings for sale (311 last year), and 7.0 months of supply.  Sales in October, 2011 were 31 (42 in September), compared with 31 for the same period in 2010.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Could be getting better…

From $400k to $600k, there are 62 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is at 6.6 months (6.5 in September).  There were 8 sales in October (5 in September)… way up compared to last October (3 v 8).  Looking at the three month average, there were 28 sales this year and 17 for the same period last year.  This segment has gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but for the last few years has dropped off pretty heavily as school started.  I’d be quite happy with 10 sales over each of the next two months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 19 listings, with about a 8.1 month supply.  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there was 1 this month (3 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around.  For the last three months, sales were 7…  For the same time last year, the sales were 3.  With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county.  But until I see 2-3 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one as strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 6 homes listed and 18 months of inventory on the market. There were only been 4 sales at this price level this year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August). This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 29 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 87 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (only 1 sale for October).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties.  The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses.  It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill.  I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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