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Category Archives: market report

But the News Said…

Wednesday, 23 May 2012 08:00
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English: Change of the Case-Shiller Home Price...

English: Change of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index relative to its peak values in 1989 and 2006. Series starting in 1989 is in blue. Series starting in 2006 is in red. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

One of the comments I hear the most is “but the news said…”.  There are always stories on the news about the NAR (National Association of REALTORS®) market stats, Case-Shiller or others.  Most of the statistics are based on national numbers.  Case Shiller is a little more local, in that it is based on the local area… if you can call the Atlanta region “local”.

One thing I would note is that the Atlanta region DOES tend to track pretty close to national averages.  But being pretty close isn’t the same as being the same.  And even if it were, there is a huge difference between the Atlanta Metro area and Gwinnett County… much less Suwanee, or the Morningview subdivision.

And that is the problem…

We can’t listen to the news and have a clear picture of what it means for our house or our neighborhood.  It would be the same as looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and deciding whether a specific stock was going to go up or down.

But that is exactly what people do… They see a report on the network news and then decide that houses are over-priced, under-priced or whatever.  When the real fact is that some market segments are rocking bargains right now… there is too much inventory and not enough buyers.  Other segments have scarce inventory and homes are selling as fast as they are listed (if they are priced appropriately).  But the national news… or even the local news… can’t be that exact in their reporting.

Unlike a lot of real estate professionals, I don’t begrudge the news for reporting the “big picture” story on the real estate market.  We DO need to know what is happening on a national basis.  But we also need to remember that there are vast differences between neighborhoods, price ranges, ZIP codes, school areas, etc.

The best bet is to talk with a local agent… I have monthly market reports on 7 cities in Gwinnett County, GA.  If this is your area, you can get a much better idea of what is going on around you.  If you really want to know what is happening, let me know and we’ll talk about YOUR house.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, April 2012

Monday, 21 May 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , April, 2012 indicates that there are 152 homes on the market.  Overall, there is about an 5.6 month supply.  There were 32 sales, compared to 23 last month and 20 last April.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 110 listings, with about 4.9 months supply.  There were 25 sales this April, significantly better than last year for the same time (17).  There were 25 sales last month.  Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling.  Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out, but this month there was only a slight increase.  There should have had a major inventory bump over the last two months.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 37 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply.  Last April there was an 15.5 month supply.  There were 3 sales, this year there were 7.  Last month only had 1 sale.  It makes last month look more like a fluke.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 3 homes on the market.  The absorption rate was around 6 months, but with 3 sales in November (and those being the only sales since July), it is tough to calculate accurately.  Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference.  I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were only 2 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, April 2012

Friday, 18 May 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...
This map shows the incorporated and unincorporated areas in Gwinnett County, Georgia, highlighting Lilburn in red. It was created with a custom script with US Census Bureau data and modified with Inkscape. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, April, 2012, indicate that there were 327properties on the market (as of April 30th). Overall, there was about an 6.2 month supply of properties and 65 properties that closed (sold) in April. It was a huge increase from last year’s sales (44) and an increase from March (51 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down a good bit. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 6.17 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a year ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 229 listings, with about an 5.4 month supply with 51 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales increased solidly from last month (41), and were also up from last year (32). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m still pulling for a comeback for Lilburn. The track is getting a little better.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 85 listings for sale, and about 8.5 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance. It is stalling a bit again. There were 14 sales compared to 11 last year. This segment really needs to get back into single digit A/Rs … but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. But the decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It was strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 9 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 27 months (one year average). There was 1 sales in March. It was the first sale in the segment since last July. Poised for a comeback, but the increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 4 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, April 2012

Monday, 14 May 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, April, 2012 indicate that there were 426 properties on the market (up from 420 last month). Overall, there was about a 5.4 month supply of properties (down from 6.2 last month). April had 75 sales. Compared to April, 2011 (75), this year was flat. Inventory was down compared to 2011 (624). There were 100 sales last month.  Although sales were flat, the decreasing inventory has made this year look a lot better.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 117 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 3.5 month supply (178 and 6.9, respectively last year). This April’s sales were WAY down, at 28 (37 last year, 42 last month). This was definitely the strongest price segment in Suwanee. And one of the strongest in the whole county. The next level up is coming up fast.  There are a few other segments in the county getting close, though.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 200 listings for sale (295 last year, 195 last month), and 5.8 months of supply. Sales in April, 2012 were 35 (42 in March), compared with 28 for the same period in 2011. Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months. I’d like to see some consistency around 40-50 sales for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.

From $400k to $600k, there were 57 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 7.1 months (9.3 in March). There were 10 sales in April (10 in March)… up from 3 last April. Looking at the three month average, there were 24 sales this year and 12 for the same period last year. This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but stayed sort of weak this month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 22 listings, with about a 11 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 0 this month (3 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 6… For the same time last year, the sales were 3. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. But until I see 3-5 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 4 homes listed and 12 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level last year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) . This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 26 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 19.5 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (2 for March and 2 for April). In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 22 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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USA Today thinks prices are heading up…

Wednesday, 09 May 2012 09:21
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And they very may.

map for us unemployment numbers

map for us unemployment numbers (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

According to the article I ran across this morning, house prices should go up about 4% each year for the next year.  I can see that… especially on the entry level of the market.  On the upper end of the market, though, it isn’t looking like we’ll see recovery for a little while. Between taxes and other policies that aren’t that friendly towards small business, there isn’t a lot of short term optimism with many of the folks that buy more luxurious homes.

So… my take is this.  I see the lower end of the market performing well over the next few years.  The higher end of the market more tricky.  The middle of the market, as well.

On the entry level, investors are scooping up properties.  Prices have stabilized and we will likely see increases regardless of the political or business climate, unless there is a MAJOR reversal.  Many of the investors are buying and holding properties as rentals, and there are simply a lot of people out there that have good income but cannot buy because of foreclosures and short sales.  That will drive the entry level pricing picture.

selfmade image of U.S. Unemployment rate from ...

selfmade image of U.S. Unemployment rate from 1890-2009 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

At the middle of the market, there are a few competing stories.  Many of the move-up buyers are stuck in their current homes or have been through foreclosures and short sales.  But, there are some that will look at snapping up a deal when they feel comfortable about their employment prospects.  Right now, that simply isn’t the case.  We all hear that the Unemployment Rate is dropping, but what we are NOT seeing is the Employment Rate moving up.  The drop in “unemployment” is mostly tied to people giving up looking for work.  In fact, the Workforce Participation Rate is at a low point.  So, if people in the middle start to feel that the economy is stable, they will buy homes.

On the upper reaches of the market, there are a few different stories as well.  Foreclosures and Short Sales are a factor, but not as often as on the lower segments.  But, comfort is a major factor.  Most of these folks are business owners or senior employees.  Taxes and regulations are playing a major role in their decisions.  Talk from Washington of major tax increases and more difficult regulation are making them hold off… even when they see a bargain.  A more business friendly tone in DC could turn the tide for these buyers.

The big question… Where do YOU think the market is going, and why?

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