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Tag Archives: duluth

Buying More Affordable Than Renting in Atlanta?

Wednesday, 18 July 2012 08:00
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Trulia maintains a database of costs for rentals as well as listings for buying.  This allows them to compare the costs of both in various markets around the country…  And Atlanta is currently listed as one of the markets where Buying is Cheaper than Renting!

In addition to the costs, they look at Employment Growth, Vacancy Rates and Price Drops.  Because of the reasonably low vacancy rates, flat employment growth and big price drops, Atlanta scored well into the Buy side…

Check it out on Trulia’s blog.

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How Does the Market Look?

Monday, 09 July 2012 08:00
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The regular market reports will resume on Friday, but for today I just wanted to expound on the general market a little.

Things have really changed in the last few months.  Just 4 or 5 months ago, I was constantly looking for “follow through” on strong numbers for almost every market segment.  There would be a good month or two, but then there would be a lousy one to cast doubt into the recovery process.

There were programs designed to “bring back the housing segment”, and while some of them did manage to move the market for a short time, for the most part, they only seemed to steal from future sales.  Sales that would have happened regardless were moved up in order to qualify for government subsidies or more favorable tax treatment.  But over the long run, they didn’t create many sales that wouldn’t have happened over the follow couple of months.

After all of that worked through the system, and consumers were more certain that there wouldn’t be future inducements, sales started picking up again… but the real boost to the sales numbers has been inventory reductions.  And while there are still rumors of a “tidal wave of foreclosed properties”, those same rumors have been around for 3+ years, always with the tidal wave 4-6 months away.  There could indeed be a wave of foreclosed properties poised to hit the market, I wouldn’t bank on it.  And the market does seem ready to absorb some more inventory, especially on the entry level end of the spectrum.

The bottom line is that the real estate market is getting back to normal.  In fact, under $200k in most of Gwinnett, it is well into Seller’s Market territory.  From $200k-$400k, it is mixed.  Above that, it is still pretty much a Buyer’s Market, but not to the extent it has been for the last few years.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the market when the general economic recovery starts in earnest.  I am still of the opinion that the best stimulus for the housing market is a recovery in the jobs market.  While the unemployment rate has gotten better, the labor force participation percentage rate hasn’t budged much.  The unemployment rate discounts workers that give up or time out on unemployment, while the labor force participation rate includes everyone that could be in the labor force.

I’m firmly of the belief that many buyers are reluctant to make a 30 year plan (buy a house and get a mortgage) when they are worried about the security of their job over the next year.

Stay tuned to see how it all shakes out…

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, May 2012

Monday, 02 July 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Preliminary stats for Duluth, May, 2012 indicated that there were 426 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 5.3 month supply of properties.  Sales in May were 91, up from 71 a year earlier.  Sales were up compared to the prior month (77).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last few months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 151 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.2 month supply.  The Absorption Rate for last May, was 7.05.  Sales in May were way up this year v last year (50 v 37), but only slightly up compared to last month (47).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 122 listings for sale, and about 6.7 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but they are moving the right way now. Sales were down compared to May, 2011 (20 v 18) and compared to last month (16). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing as well as I would have expected…

From $400k to $600k, there were 49 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate was around 7.4 months.  May brought in 8 sales.  There were 10 last year and 6 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, and it decelerated.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 41 listings, with about 12.3 months of supply.  Sales were 2 for May… 3 for last year.  And month to month sales were down (5 v 2).  Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 7.7 months of inventory on the market.  The 6 sales recorded for May rocked last year’s 2 and from the 1 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 9 sales for the last 3 months bumped the same 3 months from last year (8 sales).  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t.  And five months ago the A/R was 69 months.

Above $1m, there were 40 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 15 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates.  There were 8 sales in the Mar-May period this year, and 7 for the same time last year.  We should be posting four sales a month here regularly… and we hit that this month with 5 sales.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, April 2012

Friday, 01 June 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Preliminary stats for Duluth, April, 2012 indicated that there were 434 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 6.0 month supply of properties.  Sales in March were 77, up from 70 a year earlier.  Sales were up slightly compared to the prior month (75).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last four months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 172 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.8 month supply.  The Absorption Rate for October, was 3.55.  Sales in April were way up this year v last year (47 v 37), but only slightly up compared to last month (44).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 110 listings for sale, and about 7.7 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but they are moving the right way now.  Sales were down compared to April, 2011 (16 v 17) and compared to last month (19).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing that well… although it is one of the few to beat last year.

From $400k to $600k, there were 47 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate was around 7.1 months.  March brought in 6 sales.  There was 1 last year and 6 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, but it’s better than last month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 39 listings, with about 13.0 months of supply.  Sales were 5 for April… 8 for April last year.  But, month to month sales were down (5 v 3).  Last month was ok, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County at this price level.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 24 homes listed and approximately 14.4 months of inventory on the market.  The 1 sale recorded for April was down from last year’s 3 and from the 2 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 5 sales for the last 3 months was killed by the same 3 months from last year (11 sales).  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t. And four month ago the A/R was 69 months.

Above $1m, there were 42 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 31.5 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates.  There were 4 sales in the Feb-Apr period this year, and 7 for the same time last year.  Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here instead of the 2 we got.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County.  It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County.  The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address.  It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum).  There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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A Perfect Storm for “Move-Up Buyers”?

Wednesday, 30 May 2012 08:00
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Interest rates are at historic lows… leading to incredible affordability.

Picture of the

Picture of the "Gingerbread House" in Essex, Connecticut, USA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Entry level inventories are at historic lows… leading to some price strength at base price levels.

Still some weakness at some “move-up” price levels… leading to great deals on homes at those price levels.

For a while now, many of us in the real estate world have been saying two things.  First, until jobs come back and people feel secure, real estate would struggle.  Second, the market wouldn’t come back until “move-up” buyers were in a position to make a move.

I don’t know that the majority of consumers are “comfortable” with their job situation, but when they are, the deals will start to dry up.  Those that get off the fence early will have the best choice of bargains… and inventories are actually dropping.

Move-up buyers had been somewhat locked into their homes with crappy resale values.  They couldn’t afford to move out and be in a position to put anything down on another house.  But now that there is a bit of stability in in the entry level, more of those buyers ARE able to sell and move up the market.

 

If you want to see if you are in a position to trade up, give me a call.  Lane Bailey 678-200-5895.

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