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Tag Archives: lilburn

Wayback Wednesday… How ’bout Those Housing Starts

Wednesday, 12 October 2011 08:00
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Old photo of the estate Hollander Höfe (Höben)...

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Three years ago I published a little article about how housing starts were at their lowest level since 1991…  There were 820,000 starts in September of 2008.  And to me, that was a good thing.  If there is too much inventory, making more inventory isn’t the best idea.

Well… that was three years ago.  In August of 2011 (the last month with available numbers that I could find) there were 571,000 starts.  And furthermore, aside from a couple of bumps, starts have been bouncing along under 600,000 starts since December of 2008.  And I STILL say that it is a good thing.

Inventory is WAY more balanced than it was, even compared to just a year ago.  However, values are still well below where they should be. And there are still the persistent rumors that “the banks” are going to release millions of foreclosed homes that are “in the pipeline”.  Personally, I have been discounting those rumors for a few years… because the same rumors have been around for several years.  For a couple of years now, there have been rumors alluding to “shadow inventory” that was 3-6 months from the market.

So, if inventory is balancing, and starts have been down for years, how could I think that they need to stay low longer?  Well, it comes down to a few factors…

  • Pricing…  It still doesn’t pay for builders to put up houses in many markets.  Basically, pricing almost has to be below the cost of materials plus land in order to get the house sold.
  • Vacant Inventory…  Even in the depths of the crash, I didn’t see as many vacant homes as I do now.  I don’t have stats to back it up, but it seems like vacant inventory is surging.  (BTW, I think that is actually a sign of a recovery forming…)
  • Buyer Fear…  Despite incredibly low interest rates on mortgages and very low prices on homes (even Clark Howard is saying it might be time to move back into real estate), most buyers are still nervous.

Oddly, if you look over my market reports, I specifically refer to a couple of segments as being WELL into Seller’s Market territory.  And it is hard to square these two points…. that there is an active Seller’s Markets (in some segments) AND that starts need to stay low because the market is still weak.  But it comes down to averages…  One city might be rocking the sales, while just up the road everything is stagnant.

Location…

 

Housing Start Source.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, June 2011

Tuesday, 19 July 2011 08:36
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Dominique Wilkins during Euroleague semifinal ...

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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, June, 2011, indicates that there were 454 properties on the market (as of June 30th). Overall, there was about an 8.5 month supply of properties and 63 properties that closed (sold) in June.  I had been looking for another increase in sales for June and it came through.  And it was an increase over last year’s sales (51) and May, 2011 (54 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down slightly.  Unfortunately, Lilburn is among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 309 listings, with about an 7.7 month supply with 48 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales rose slightly from last month (41), but were more above last year (38).  The Absorption Rate dropped only slightly from 7.9 to 7.7 months of inventory.  This is even a slight improvement over the tax credit fueled buying of this time last year.  If the pace maintains for the next two months, it could mean that Lilburn, GA, is on the verge of a turn.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 132 listings for sale, and about 11.o months of supply.  This segment has been quite weak for months, but has picked up a little strength.  May was a strong follow up to April, which was HUGE… 11 sales compared to just 9 last year.  June pulled down 14 sales, slightly above last year’s 13 homes sold.  If July stays strong (14-15 sales), this could signal a return to a more balanced segment… and Lilburn has been missing that.  (last month I said…) I’ll be looking for around 14 sales for June…  ;^ )

From $400k to $600k, there are just 8 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 6.0 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April.  May posted 2 sales, and there was 1 sale in June.  It doesn’t seem like much, but this is a segment hasn’t posted that many months with back to back sales…  This is the first time sales have been sales posted four months in a row since 2009.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  March posted the first sale since August, 2010.  It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, May 2011

Tuesday, 21 June 2011 08:58
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, May, 2011, indicates that there were 436 properties on the market (as of May 31st). Overall, there was about an 8.6 month supply of properties and 54 properties that closed (sold) in May.  I had been looking for an increase in sales for May and it came through.  And while April was an increase over last year’s sales (36), it was a decrease from March, 2011 (55 sales).  May, 2011, was up compared to both the previous month and the previous year.  The Absorption Rate notched down significantly.

In the sub-$200k arena, there are 305 listings, with about an 7.9 month supply with 41 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales rose sharply from last month (32), but were only slightly above last year (40).  The Absorption Rate dropped slightly from 9.6 to 7.9 months of inventory.  This is even an improvement over the tax credit fueled buying of this time last year.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 118 listings for sale, and about 11.4 months of supply.  This segment has been quite weak for months, but has picked up a little strength.  Having 0 sales in December, and only 6 in November didn’t help. Nine sales in January was HUGE. But, February was back down below last year.  March was strong last year, but a little stronger this year (9 v 8 in 2010).  May was a strong follow up to April, which was HUGE… 11 sales compared to just 9 last year.  If June stays strong, this could signal a return to a more balanced segment… and Lilburn has been missing that.  I’ll be looking for around 14 sales for June…

From $400k to $600k, there are just 9 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 5.4 months. There were no sales in this segment from December through February, but there were 2 in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April.  May posted 2 sales.  It doesn’t seem like much, but this is a segment hasn’t posted that many months with back to back sales…  This is the first time sales have been sales posted three months in a row since 2009.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 4 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory.  March posted the first sale since August, 2010.  It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M (none between $800k and $1M), and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for that range…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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The Gwinnett County Market is a Little Weird Right Now…

Thursday, 09 June 2011 08:46
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DSCN0561
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I have been pulling Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Data, and I’m not done with it yet.  But, I have been seeing a few things.

  • Listings are down markedly from where they would normally be.  This can be either a positive or negative, depending on your outlook.
    • On the Plus Side, fewer listings means that Absorption Rates are better.  There is less inventory to get sold… it tilts the table back toward sellers.  It has been largely tilted toward buyers for quite a while.
    • On the Minus Side, it shows that there is pessimism in the market on the side of sellers.  They aren’t confident about the market.  That lack of confidence has carried over to buyers… sales are also slowing.
  • Sales are down… like I just mentioned.  Even though Absorption Rates make the market look better… the sales just aren’t there.
  • Results are mixed.  There are a few cities that are doing well… and there are a few price segments that are doing quite well.  Others are VERY weak.
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Wayback Wednesday… Thanks Again, Ms. Curtis!

Wednesday, 25 May 2011 08:57
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Ms. Curtis with my younger son

I hope I get a cool teacher like Ms. Curtis, too!

Last year I wrote a post as a ‘Thank You’ to my older son’s Kindergarten Teacher, Ms. Curtis.  G has been in a CLE (Continuous Learning Environment) class for the last two years, so he had Ms. Curtis again this year.  And again, she has earned a hearty Thank You for he efforts, compassion and leadership.

Unfortunately, the Multi-Age CLE class is going away, but Ms. Curtis isn’t.  She’ll still be at Arcado Elementary in Lilburn, GA, teaching Kindergarteners how to read, write, do math and integrate into elementary school.

G benefited greatly from the CLE class environment.  During his first year, as a Kindergartener, he had great mentoring from the 1st Grade students in the class.  Instead of just being taught by the teacher, the 1st Graders demonstrated leadership with the younger kids and helped teach them.

This year, as a 1st Grader, he had a couple of Kindergarteners that he mentored.  This gave him the opportunity to be a leader and demonstrate his skills and knowledge.

We all know that one of the best ways to learn is to teach… and this class leveraged that to great results.  The Kindergarteners got great peer-to-peer instruction from their friends, while the 1st Graders had the opportunity to teach and learn more effectively, while also building leadership skills.

Feel free to read last year’s post (linked above and through the picture).  There are several examples of ways that Ms. Curtis maintains great communication with the parents, helping to foster a better learning environment for her students.

Finally, one thing that we have really enjoyed is the opportunity to visit the classroom at any time.  With my Junior Achievement activities at Arcado, I was in the school every week for much of the year.  I took advantage of the opportunity to drop in unannounced numerous times.  I was always welcomed… and always impressed by the multitude of ways she engaged the class.  My wife and I (often along with our younger son) also attended many “special event” days in the class.  J was able to play, and the lessons in leadership became quite apparent.

All of the kids, Kindergarteners and 1st Graders, took time to help the younger kids.  Many younger siblings visited the class.  They would play with the toys and entertain themselves with books and other learning tools in the class.  The older kids were always patient and worked toward helping the youngsters…

Thanks Ms. Curtis. Thank you for the time and effort you put into teaching my children.  Thank you for the patience and compassion that you showed them.  Thank you for all of the work that you took on to make sure each child had the best opportunity to learn.

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