That is the goal if you are a seller.
Yesterday, in the REALTOR® Magazine Daily Briefing there was a short report on the findings of a story in Baltimore. It seems that getting a house to sell fast in even a tough market (and Baltimore is a tough market) takes the same things it does at any other time.
Sure… At least that is how some circles are making it out. But, I wonder…
On the surface, it looks like it might be a good idea. There are a couple of compelling aspects to this. The first, and probably most important is that according to the agents in the area it has been tried, 68% of the test drivers offered on the property they test drove. The second is that it really does offer buyers the opportunity to sample the lifestyle of the target property.
There are a few drawbacks as well. To start with, there is security and privacy. Some sellers don’t like having buyers traipse through their home when they aren’t there. Obviously, if the buyers are living in the home for a day or three, there won’t be an agent locking and unlocking the door… and keeping the key. There won’t be a third party watching to try to make sure that drawers aren’t rifled through, and private information and valuables stay where they are. Next on the list would be bedding and baths… I know that my wife is a stickler at hotels… She isn’t going to just be any different in someone’s house. And then someone has to come back and live in their house again.
The questions are:
Can the obstacles be overcome?
Is it worth it?
If you were in the market for a home, would you want to stay there for a day or three?
What would it be worth?
I’d love to get some feedback about this. I’ve seen it “discussed” but agent talk isn’t the same as consumer opinion. I want to know what you would think of this as a buyer or seller. Don’t worry about buyer qualification, as we would definitely have to make sure that only qualified buyers would be able to use the program.
Let’s hear it.
As I state every month, the numbers for December are preliminary, and I expect them to change over the coming weeks. I would love to be able to delay a couple of days and have solid numbers, but the pattern I have seen in previous months tells me that the December numbers may change right up until the end of January. The November numbers actually changed between the 1st and 6th of January.
To be flat out honest, I am not thrilled with the December numbers… even as preliminary numbers. It isn’t as bad as it could be, but it is far from good.
Let’s start with the absorbtion rates. The twelve month number is down a little from last month, with it pointing to a 10.4 month inventory. The six month rate is actually up slightly, to 12.1 months of inventory. Finally, the three month rate is up to 15.7 months.
If you aren’t familiar with absorbtion rates, it is simply this: how long it would take to sell all of the current listings if no new listings were added. The common rule of thumb is that a neutral market has about a six month supply. A supply of less than six months points to a seller’s market, and a supply over six months points to a buyer’s market.
Let’s get down to some nuts and bolts…
Listings are down from October to November and from November to December (2164 > 1780 > 1451). However, the year over year numbers are up for both November and December, 6% and 9% respectively. As I have been stating for the last few months, I really want to see the number of new listings drop in relation to the previous year. The bright spot is that both the increases are below the annual average for 2007 (11%). Perhaps the deceleration will continue.
Pendings point to next month’s solds. They are a bit of a forward indicator. Pendings also can be a bellwether of financing problems and other issues with closing property sales. If the pendings are high, but the sales don’t pick up, that indicates that sales are falling through after contract. The most common reason would be financing issues preventing the sale from closing. In that case, either the properties aren’t appraising, or the loans aren’t getting funded. Currently, there is a “liquidity crunch”, meaning the experts are saying there just isn’t enough money to lend. Unless the December solds come up a lot, we may be seeing some of the effects of that liquidity crunch. Pendings are down from September through December (705 > 769 > 637 > 510).
Solds are where the action needs to be. Let me continue with the comparison to the Pendings above for a moment. The solds have been decelerating the last couple of months, but that is normal this time of year. The numbers for October through December (700 > 592 > 353). Looking at the September pendings (705), and the October solds (700), the pendings were actually a little lower than I expected. But, the following numbers October pendings (769) and November solds (592), I was expecting a little more sold activity. I expect to see a correction of the December solds activity as well. November and December were both off of the previous years by about the same amount (32% for Nov. and 33% for Dec.). But, I think that December will change a bit by the time the next report is published.
Since the last report, the November average sale price had a radical change. I previously showed it as about $238k, but it dropped to $225,100. Instead of a 2.3% increase, it changed to a 3.5% decrease. Currently, December is showing an average price of $253,449, up 7.1% from last year. Don’t expect that to hold up. I’ve been looking for a drop to spur sales. I think that we are starting to see that drop.
The final number that I’m going to kick out is the solds/new listings percentage. In the best markets, this is around 60%. Right now, we are looking at about 33% for November, and 24% for December. Basically, this is the percentage of sold listings vs. new listings. This highlights the importance of pricing a home properly. In November, for every three homes that came on the market, only one sold.
I have been calling for a spring recovery. I will have to stick with it for a couple more months. It will probably be the late spring, though… I expect May to be the month, but I won’t have final numbers until July. As always, when the market turns, the first movers get the best deal.
Look for my next report around this time in February.
Wandering around the web today, I ran across an interesting site.
The EPA has a website that allows us to map environmental issues that might be in areas we are thinking of buying a home. There is a wealth of information that one can find here (here are the titles… fell free to visit the site to find out more):
The site is pretty cool. One puts in an address or ZIP code and then the area issues are displayed in a map format, allowing one to easily see what might be in the area.
I almost forgot to give the site… Here it is!
137… Currently on the market.
I am asked that question periodically. There are 137 homes on the market as of the time I am writing this that have 4 car garages in Gwinnett County, GA. They range in price from $10.5M down to $154,900. They are all over the county. One has a 20 car garage, most are sliding in with the 4 car. Several have outbuildings. One is a horse farm with a big shop. A couple of the garages have lifts. A few of them are on Lake Lanier.
The median price is $722k. The surroundings vary from subdivision to golf community to out of their own, and lots range from 1/3 acre to over 20 acres. Some of the properties are “in the country”, or at least well away from current development, and others are in the thick of very popular areas. They range from brand new to well seasoned, and one is a garage with a cottage on the property.
This is just the properties in Gwinnett County. There are also similar properties available in Forsyth, Hall, DeKalb and other local areas.
If you are looking for a place to call home for both the family and the toys, let me know. I have access to all of these, and new listings are coming on the market daily. I look forward to hearing from you.