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Lilburn, GA Market Report, February 2012

Friday, 16 March 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, February, 2012, indicates that there were 358 properties on the market (as of February 29th).  Overall, there was about an 7.5 month supply of properties and 43 properties that closed (sold) in February.  It was an increase from last year’s sales (26) but a slight decrease from January (46 sales).  The Absorption Rate notched down a bit.  Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track.  But, at 7.51 months of inventory, it isn’t nearly as bad as it had been just a few months ago (14.35 months of inventory in Feb, 2011, for example).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 258 listings, with about an 6.2 month supply with 36 sales.  This represents most of the sales in the market area.  Sales decreased slightly from last month (46), and were also up dramatically from last year (22).  While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m still pulling for a comeback for Lilburn.  The track is getting a little better.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 90 listings for sale, and about 15.0 months of supply.  This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance.  There were 7 sales compared to 4 last year.  This segment really needs to get back into single digit A/Rs … but, Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market.  But the decrease in listings has really helped.  I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet…  It is strengthening, just not as quickly as I’d like.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 5 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 7.5 months (one year average). There were 2 sales in March, which really turned the segment around, followed by 1 sale for April. May posted 2 sales, 1 sale in June, 2 in July and none since.  The apparent strength in the A/R isn’t from recent sales as much as from low listing vol

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 5 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students that the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

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I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Unique Homes?

Wednesday, 14 March 2012 08:00
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french quarter architecture

french quarter architecture (Photo credit: abundantc)

Everybody likes unique homes… maybe not the same unique homes, but homes that are unique to their needs and desires.  But, when it’s time to move, a unique home can be a REAL challenge to sell.  In effect, it takes finding someone else that sees the same value in the property in order complete a sale where everyone leaves the closing table with a smile.

Financing a unique home can ALSO be a challenge.  Now, you don’t just need to find a buyer that has similar needs and desires for their home, but the appraiser needs to be able to justify it through the use of comparable properties.  Comparable properties might be pretty slim… since the very definition of “unique home” would seem to preclude comparable properties.

What makes a “unique home”?

  • Unusual interior features… maybe a 30 seat movie theater, 10 car garage, recording studio or maybe even a smaller house with a commercial grade kitchen.
  • Architecturally distinct… this can be something as “mundane” as a house that doesn’t fit the character of nearby homes.  A modern, minimalist home in a neighborhood of traditional homes would be unique.
  • Falling Water

    Falling Water (Photo credit: spike55151)

    Different type of lot… like a 10 acre lot tucked into a neighborhood with ½ acre lots, or a ¾ acre lot in an area loaded with 20 acre mini-farms.

  • Homes with historical significance… whether we are talking about a house like “Falling Water” (famous Frank Lloyd Wright design) or the Lalaurie Mansion (a famous home in the French Quarter of New Orleans, purchased a few years ago by Nicholas Cage) or even a home owned by a notable person from history.
  • VERY different homes… a house built to look like a shoe, or an earth-shelter home.  Lots of very high end homes fall into this, just because of the cost and limited market for them.

Selling a unique home involves a lot of challenges, both for the sellers AND for their real estate agent.

  • They may take a substantially longer time to sell than other homes.  They need to have the right buyer… and they have a much smaller buyer pool because of their unique attributes.
  • English: Thomas Jefferson's Rotunda at the Uni...

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    The sellers will often end up selling for much less than they originally hoped… even if they find the “perfect buyer” because of the problems that can arise during the appraisal and financing processes.

  • In some cases, especially homes with historical significance, there might be substantial restrictions on the buyers (can you imagine what would happen if someone bought Monticello, Thomas Jefferson’s home in Virginia, and then bull-dozed it because they liked the lot?)
  • The marketing costs and effort need to be much higher in order to have a good outcome.

There is a saying in real estate… Price fixes everything… but there are limits to that.  In fact, over the last few years we have actually seen properties that couldn’t be GIVEN away.  In Detroit, there were homes that were livable (not nice, but not caving in, either) that failed to sell for $100.  The value of the underlying land was less than the cost of removing the house… and there was no demand for the house.  The parallel in unique homes is that there might not be a noticable local demand for a house with that particular style.  To sell a specialized home to a general buyer often means that the unique features are completely discounted, or may even be a liability.

So, “price fixes everything” may actually not apply in the case of some unique homes.  Marketing might also not be able to overcome some obstacles.  However, to get the best outcome, a combination of aggressive marketing, realistic pricing, and a realistic timetable are the solutions.

I have dealt with several unique properties… garage homes being the most predominant.  The require a different type of service than many real estate agents are willing to provide.  There is a substantial portion of the real estate community that “plays a numbers game” when it comes to listings.  They figure that by listing a lot of properties, they will get a percentage that sell.  By lowering their marketing costs and concentrating on funneling more into the listing end of the equation, they will get more sales on the closing end of the equation.  They are much less interested in changing the equation to get a higher percentage fo the properties sold… and they have little patience for dealing with interesting and unique properties.

If you have an interesting property that you want to sell… or you are looking for an interesting property… around Atlanta, especially in Gwinnett County and around Lake Lanier, give me a call.

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, February 2012

Monday, 12 March 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, February, 2012 indicate that there were 433 properties on the market (down from 440 last month).  Overall, there was about a 7.3 month supply of properties (down from 7.9 last month).  February had 64 sales.  Compared to February, 2011 (53), this year was a stronger.  Inventory was down compared to 2011 (604).  The last six months had been very strong, but that came on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months.  February was stronger than January, but still not as strong as it was a few months ago.  It will be interesting to see if the strength carries through another month.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 133 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 4.3 month supply (131 and 4.4, respectively last year).  This February’s sales were WAY up, at 30 (22 last year, 17 last month).  This was definitely the strongest price segment in Suwanee.  I’m hoping that January was an anomaly.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 195 listings for sale (284 last year, 207 last month), and 8.4 months of supply.  Sales in February, 2012 were 27 (16 in January), compared with 26 for the same period in 2011.  Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months.  I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months.  This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment.  Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks.  And for the last few months, despite there being more listings in this segment, the under $200k segment has had more sales.

From $400k to $600k, there were 62 homes on the market.  The absorption rate was at 12.4 months (12.0 in January).  There were 4 sales in February (5 in January)… up by 3 compared to last January.  Looking at the three month average, there were 15 sales this year and 10 for the same period last year.  This segment had gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but stayed sort of weak this month.  We should be looking at close to 12 sales for March… I was hoping (but not expecting) 12 for February.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 15 listings, with about a 15 month supply (HUGE reduction from last month’s A/R of 51).  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 3 this month (0 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around.  For the last three months, sales were 3…  For the same time last year, the sales were 4.  With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county.  But until I see 2-3 sales a month on average, I can’t call this one strong.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 4 homes listed and 12 months of inventory on the market.  There were only 4 sales at this price level last year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August) .  This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.  But there still needs to be some sales activity.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 24 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 24 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales (only 1 sale for October, 0 for November, 1 for December and 2 for January).  In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 27 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Foreclosures v. the Rest of the Market

Monday, 05 March 2012 08:00
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DSCN2908

DSCN2908 (Photo credit: lane.bailey)

RISMedia just posted a story a few days ago citing stats that 24% of all real estate sales nationwide are foreclosure.  That is down slightly from 26% in the 4th quarter of 2010.  And a little more striking piece of news was that short sales were up by 15% from a year ago while REO (foreclosure) sales were actually down 12% from a year ago.

As a real estate agent, I look at the stats a little different than others might.  To begin with, I would have thought that the number would have been higher.  Of course, there are local variations… and I think that in Gwinnett County, there is a significantly higher percentage of sales that are foreclosure related.

Looking at local listings, in many of my market area segments, more than half of the available listings are foreclosure or related (pre-foreclosure and short-sale or institutionally owned).  And a higher percentage of the sales would be foreclosure related… often because the prices are more attractive.

But overall, I think that this bodes well for the overall health of the local real estate market.  As foreclosed inventory depletes, more normalcy can be established in the market.

Of course, if you are a buyer, that means that you might want to jump in while the prices are still depressed and the mortgage rates are bouncing on the bottom.  Feel free to give me a call to take a look.  You can see my local market reports here.

 

Lane
garagehome [at] gmail [dot] com
678-200-5895

 

 

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, January 2012

Friday, 02 March 2012 08:00
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Market stats for Norcross GA, January, 2012 indicate that there were 241 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.7 month supply of properties.  The last year has been fairy strong… although April and May weren’t that strong (April was below last year)… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  January saw 40 sales, ever so slightly below the 41 for January, 2011, and well under the 52 for December.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 140 listings, with about 3.4 month supply.  Sales are well off from last month but only slightly up from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (33 v 32 in Jan11 & 46 Dec11).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.  At barely over 3 month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 67 listings for sale, and about 14.4 months of supply.  This segment has been weakening for the last four months.  The 6 sales were slightly up compared to last year’s 5 sales, but solidly up from last month’s 4 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  Coming off of a reasonably strong summer selling season is why this segment looks like it is weakening.

From $400k to $600k, there were 26 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 15.6 months.  The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January.  January’s 1 sale was down from 2 the month before and from last year’s 3 sales.  This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell…  The good news is that it would only take a few sales to put it back in a balanced range.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings on the market.  Inventories doubled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, the last in November (0 in December or January), obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 home listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 4 properties listed.  But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure.  The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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