It may seem a little self serving. It doesn’t take much surfing on the RE.net (real estate blogdom) to find a real estate agent saying that there are good deals to be had, and those that wait may well lose out. In all honesty, there are a couple of reasons (I’ll be frank with you):
- We need buyers to buy in order to make money… but that isn’t all of it.
- Many of us have seen these types of markets before… perhaps as an agent, or investor or just as a bystander.
- We know that the only way we can see the turn of the market is looking back.
- We are looking at the market every single day and we see the bargains.
- We are looking at the market every single day and we see the bargains going away.
- We need buyers to buy in order to make money.
I told you I would be honest… But, let me cover each of these a little more. I’m going to skip the first and last one, since it is pretty obvious…
- Many of us have seen these types of markets before… perhaps as an agent, or investor or just as a bystander.
Here is an excerpt from Dick Gaylord, President of the NAR:
“The prices of houses seem to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline.”
– Time Magazine, 1947“Houses cost too much for the mass market. Today’s average price is around $8,000 – out of the reach for two-thirds of all buyers.”
– Science Digest, 1948“The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs about $28,000.”
– Business Week, 1969“You might well be suspicious of ‘common wisdom’ that tells you, ‘Don’t wait, buy now… continuing inflation will force home prices and rents higher and higher.'”
– NEA Journal, 1970“The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000… Housing experts predict price rises in the future won’t be that great.”
– Nations Business, 1977“The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close.”
– Money Magazine, 1981“The golden-age of risk-free run-ups in home prices is gone.”
– Money Magazine, 1985“Most economists agree…. [a home] will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through much of the 1980’s.”
– Money Magazine, 1986“Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment.”
– Kiplinger’s Personal Financial Magazine, 1993“A home is where the bad investment is.”
– San Francisco Examiner, 1996
And yes, this is the same Dick Gaylord I took to task over this very same post on 3/5/08. But, as I said in the blog, the media is giving us the short stick right now… So, look at the stock market. Crash… and then opportunity.
Another interesting post I came across today was from Seth Godin. Seth is a marketing GENIUS. Seth mentioned on his blog:
Change (and the fortunes that go with it) is almost always made during the down part of the cycle. It might not be fun, but it’s exciting… The opportunity is to find substantial opportunities (in any field) that deliver real value and have a future. Those jobs/investments/companies/ideas are undervalued right now, but not for long.
And then comes:
- We know that the only way we can see the turn of the market is looking back.
Right now, the most recent solid stats I can pull from my MLS are almost 6 weeks old. I won’t have a good idea about February until April. And, we can’t tell a trend until it has showed itself over several months. So, if the market turned today, I wouldn’t really be able to show the stats that prove it until July or August… June at the soonest. And, in that time 2,000 of the best deals in Gwinnett County could be sold.
- We are looking at the market every single day and we see the bargains.
- We are looking at the market every single day and we see the bargains going away.
As a full-time professional real estate agent, I look at the market each day. I don’t see bargains every day, but I do see bargains. I also see those properties sell. Sure, the average Days on Market are currently about 100 days, but there are properties that sell in less than 10. Because they are good deals. There are other deals that never make it to the MLS. But, every day there is another great opportunity that goes away. before long, there won’t be a full boat of opportunities. There won’t be anything left but the picked over properties. This is also a good primer for bargain shopping…
So, what it comes down to is that there are some good buys out there right now. They won’t be there forever. The first movers will have the best selection of deals. When the pent-up demand is unleashed, the market will turn. Finally, if you are planning on buying a house to own for 7-10 years, this is a great time. If your horizon is shorter, it might be more risky, but could still work out. If your timeline is longer… you are pretty safe. Of course, remember that the location is important. Some markets might still have a while to fall. Others haven’t really slowed and still look under-valued. I’m writing for Gwinnett County.
If you are looking in or around Gwinnett County, give me a call. I spend time at Lake Lanier, too… I know of an incredible property that could be had for a pretty good discount (still knocking on $2m, though).
If you are looking elsewhere, I’d be happy to refer you to an agent I trust. I have a pretty good network of agents around the country that I know and respect.