… of the NAR. Here is a link to the post. Dick Gaylord, the President of the NAR, raises some very good points, but I had to rebut the post as a whole.
The first thing I need to say is that I am proud to be a REALTOR®. I love the work that I do. I love helping clients buy and sell houses at the various stages of their lives. Seeing their goals realized is incredibly satisfying.
As you know, NAR has been criticized in the news media for our “rosey” outlook for the real estate market. More often than not, they say we are too positive about the prospects for housing values in the future.
Terry gave his clients and agents a look at how accurate the news media has been about previous housing cycles. Below is the e-mail he forwarded to me, which shows how various media outlets have consistently predicted a long-term decline in home values since the 1940s. Yet, every time, the so-called decline was short-lived.
The email has quotes from various media outlets over the last 60 years. In each case, the quote points to a long term prediction based on short term information.
And I agree with both Mr. Gaylord and Mr. Forsberg. I think that the media does give real estate the short stick… but they do the same thing to EVERYONE else. In fact, let’s look at the VERY recent past. This isn’t real estate, but it shows the mindset.
The media (in general) wants to be first to break the story. So, they often make wild jumps in order to get the conclusion before anyone else. That would be why the results of an election are projected based on 1% of precincts reporting… That would be why Hillary Clinton was presumed to be the nominee of the Democrat Party… and Rudy Guliani was to be the Republican nominee… and then it was Barak Obama and Mitt Romney. Now we find John McCain the actual nominee, and Hillary hasn’t quit… and isn’t that far out of contention.
But, back to the subject at hand… the NAR and their rosy predictions, ostensibly to counter the negative spin from the media…
Here is my complete reply to the post at the NAR blog. I do not know if it will clear moderation.
But you have to admit that 5 or 6 quarterly reports that say “the worst is behind us” each time… while the market continues to erode is a little tiring.
We all know that the media’s market readers keep preaching that whatever is happening in the short term will last forever. But the NAR hasn’t been too realistic about the short term. Instead of telling people that the market looks challenging, the NAR message has been “Prices are up, it’s a great time to buy.” or “Prices are down, it’s a great time to buy.” The truth is that it is a great time to buy for some people. It is a lousy time to buy for others. Consumers should consult with THEIR REALTOR(R) to find out which camp they are in.
If you want to know if this is your time… call me, and we’ll talk. I would also recommend talking with a good mortgage broker. Feel free to let me know if you need a few names.