The whole year of 2009 was challenging in some segments.  In other segments, it has shown surprising resilience and strength.  Suwanee is one of the markets in Gwinnett County, GA, that has shown relative strength, even into the last quarter of 2009.  And it started off fairly strong.


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Looking back over the last couple of months for Suwanee, GA, the market has moved…  The biggest thing has been the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.  It has had a GIANT pull on the market, and when it “expired” (it was renewed and expanded before it actually expired, but the effect seemed to expire) it solidified the direction of the market… as it did when it was enacted.

Let’s knock out a few numbers…

  • There were 517 Listings as of 12/31/2009
  • December currently reports with 48 sales
  • The Absorption Rates for Lawrenceville break down as follows:
    • 12 month average – 7.94 months of inventory
    • 6 month average – 7.02 months of inventory
    • 3 month average – 7.25 months of inventory

The link above explains Absorption Rates more fully, but basically, it tells us how long it would take to sell all of the property on the market at the current rate.

Sales for Suwanee in December were down 36.8% compared to December 2008.  This was after November was up 85.7% year over year.  Days on Market also decreased by 8 days to 90 days.  One thing to keep in mind though is that there may still be sales that are unreported.

By Segment…

The market is divided up into six segments.

Under $200k…

There were 96 listings and 14 sales in December.  Looking back the 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 5.5/4.9/4.5 months.  This is one of only a handful of locations/segments that has actually accelerated in sales in the third quarter.  Remember that 6 months on inventory is considered balanced… we have remained under that level when averaged out over the last year, two quarters and one quarter.  The Under $200k segment is the strongest.

$200k – $400k…

There were 256 listings and 19 sales in December.  The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 7.4/6.3/6.6 months.  I also expected the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit to have a little more impact on the 3mo rate, but sales remained steady.  The $200k – $400k segment has been realtively strong in 2009.

$400k – $600k…

There were 79 listings and 7 sales in December.  The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 9.4/9.3/9.9 months.  This segment shouldn’t have been affected by the tax credit as lower priced homes.  That said, I didn’t expect a decelleration in sales in the last quarter.  However, since this is a fairly affluent area, I shouldn’t have been shocked by the overall strength.

$600k – $800k, $800k – $1m and Over $1m…

There were a total of 86 listings and 55 sales in the last 12 months.  The Absorption Rates can be calculated, but they really aren’t very meaningful.  A couple of extra or missed sales make a big swing in the data.  Also, these homes are not likely to be affected by the old tax credit or the newer expanded tax credit.  Almost all of the Absorption Rates were over a year.  The strongest was the 6 mo average for homes in the $600k – $800k segment.  That slowed dramatically in the 4th Quarter.

There are still challenges in the market… and we’ll have to see what January holds.

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