Ruby Forest is starting to pick up some traction, but there are some sellers that are going to let their best chance for a sale pass them by, while there is an opportunity for those that are motivated.

By looking at two different sets of numbers, I see a disparate picture.

On the one hand are the historic sales figures.  As noted in the chart to the right, the “sweet spot” seems to be just under $240k.  A year ago, we were dealing with huge inventory shortages and it was possible to draw offers that were on the high side… buyers were motivated by the lack of choices.  But now we have more inventory available on the market (there are 7 active homes in Ruby Forest now vs. just 1 or 2 this time last year).

On the other hand, looking at the currently available listings I see a much different picture.  The lowest price property just dropped its price to $244,000.  The median price is $284,900 and the average is $283,800.

Over the last year, close to 70% of the homes successfully sold in Ruby Forest have sold in the first 30 days, averaging 98%  of their list price.  When we look at the homes selling between 31 and 60 days after being listed, that drops to just 90% of that original list price.  From there is goes down further as the period gets longer…

As a professional Realtor®, this tells me a couple of things…

• Sellers feel that they still have all of the cards that they had a year ago.  Unfortunately, this isn’t the case.  Inventories are up, and now we are seeing new construction in the immediate area.
• Sellers need to compete for buyers… buyers don’t need to compete as much for sellers.
• Homes that are on the market for more than a month or two are getting “stale” and the prices sink further than if they had been priced competitively to start with.

There is another red flag that I see that could get tossed into the field…  appraisals.

Appraisers base their numbers on sales in the last 6-12 months.  The prices that I see may not be as supportable as the sellers and agents expect.  Keep in mind that I’m not an appraiser and I haven’t broken each of these homes out to compare it to the sold comps.  They might be able to make it through appraisal, but they also might not.

Statistically, ALL of these homes are priced well above average.  Yet, statistically, half of these homes are NOT above average is size/features/amenities.  We DO need to look outside Ruby Forest in other subdivisions that are districted to Roberts Elementary to have a perfect picture, but there is enough activity in Ruby Forest to have a good idea of how things could go.

And this is where the red flag gets tossed…  Let’s assume that one of these houses were to get an offer and go under contract near the asking price.  If there were a problem at the appraisal stage, the sellers could see their expected price evaporate.

What is the Good News

For a motivated seller, there is abundant opportunity.  There IS buyer activity and interest in Ruby Forest.  A home coming on the market in the sweet spot would have a solid chance of selling in the next 45-75 days (15-30 days to contract and 30-45 days to closing).  Selling with a reasonably aggressive price, comparatively, would mean that the contract would likely happen faster and instead of working on keeping the home in “showing shape” for months on end, you could concentrate on getting packed up for your move.

A year ago we were in a classic “Seller’s Market”.  Now we are in much more of a “Balanced Market”.  Actually, in the long run, this is much easier to deal with.  Most sellers are moving to another home, and the balanced market allows for a smoother flow from one to the other.  In a Seller’s Market, the sellers make out great on the sale of their home, but get their added equity wiped out while negotiating for their new home.  In a Buyer’s Market, the sellers get smacked around on the front end, but might get to make it up on the subsequent purchase.

If you are ready to talk about listing your home, give me a call…

Lane Bailey

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