Author Archives: Lane Bailey

Foreclosure Wave Broken on the Shore?

Wednesday, 05 June 2013 16:19

Written by Lane Bailey

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For years I have been hearing (and talking about it here) the “wave of foreclosures that are just around the corner”. For years the wave has been just around the corner, over the horizon and getting ready to hit. We did have a tsunami of foreclosures, and Gwinnett County has been one of the worst hit in Georgia, but the second wave has been a phantom…

Foreclosures fall behind retail sales in Gwinnett

And I am about ready to say that it will remain a phantom. That isn’t to say that there won’t be more, but I would like to lay to rest the idea that the banks have a pile of foreclosures that they are “about the release” or that “will hit the streets in the next few months”.

If there was a time, it would be NOW. There is little inventory, prices are starting to strengthen… the time would be ripe.

Instead… we see the first chart.

The green line represents wholesale (foreclosures, short sales, pre-foreclosure sales, etc.). It has dropped over the last few months… as retail (that would be regular sellers) have surged. One not to include here… the red line (new homes) only represents a portion of new home sales. Builders only report “inventory sales” to the MLS. And many of their sales are “pre-sales” (houses purchased before they are built). Some builders are selling 3 or 4 pre-sales for each inventory home. Expect that the red line might actually be 50% higher than it shows…

Prices rebounding in Gwinnett County, GA

To be sure, everything isn’t all wonderful… but it is a load better than a year ago. Right now, actual people that want (or need) to sell their homes have a shot.

The next issue that will start to right itself over the next couple of years regards the people that have been through this wave of foreclosures…

It takes most people 3 years to recover from a foreclosure, short sale, pre-foreclosure, deed-in-lieu or other mortgage shortfall. So, over the last three years, as Gwinnett County has been ravaged by foreclosures and similar issues, thousands of homeowners have been locked out of the market… instead, largely joining the ranks of renters.

That won’t last…

And as they come back into the home market, with the reduced inventories we’re seeing, expect to see continued price strength.

Like I said, it isn’t all wonderful, but we are looking at the beginnings of a Gwinnett recovery. If it follows the Forsyth recovery (they weren’t hit as hard) you can expect to see the market heat up quite a bit through the end of the year as the pent-up demand is released.

Norcross, GA, Market Report, April 2013

Monday, 03 June 2013 11:48

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Norcross GA, April, 2013 indicate that there were 127 properties on the market, down 9 from last month. Overall, there is about a 3.2 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all. April saw 44 sales, same as last month, but down compared to the 50 for April last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 65 listings, with about 2.8 month supply. Sales are flat from last month and way down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (25 v 25 in Mar13 & 37 Apr12). For the last two years, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers. This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At a 2.79 month A/R, this is pretty strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 41 listings for sale, and about 3.6 months of supply. This segment had been weakening for the last few months. But, the 10 sales were up from last year’s 7 sales, but down from last month’s 15 sales. Even though it isn’t as gangbusters as some of the other areas, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010. I think this is starting to look like a pretty settled market here…

From $400k to $600k, there were 17 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 3.4 months. The AR had been fairly steady all summer, then shot WAY up in September/October. April’s 8 sales were up from the 4 last month and from last year’s 5 sales. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… The good news is that it only takes a few sales to put it back in a balanced range long term. In June we were at just 5.1 months of inventory and six months ago it was 42 months…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 3 listings on the market. The Absorption Rate is at 9.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings. The was 1 sale for Apr13, 0 for Mar13 and 1 for Apr12.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 0 homes listed on the market and 0 sales in April. There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

Duluth, GA, Market Report, April 2013

Friday, 31 May 2013 11:35

Written by Lane Bailey

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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Duluth, April, 2013 indicated that there were 288 properties on the market, up 2 from last month. Overall, there was about a 4.9 month supply of properties. Sales in April were 62, down from 77 a year earlier. Sales were also down compared to the last month (76). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last few months. It is still in the Seller’s Market zone.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 80 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 3.0 month supply. The Absorption Rate for last April was 3.8. Sales were WAY down this year v last year (26 v 47), and down compared to last month (35). The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than much of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 93 listings for sale, and about 4.7 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again. Sales were up compared to April, 2012 (18 v 16) but down compared to last month (26). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing as well as I would have expected… but it might be constrained somewhat due to low inventories. It is still a Seller’s Market.

From $400k to $600k, there were 33 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate was around 7.1 months. March brought in 9 sales. There were 6 last year and 3 last month. Unlike many of the market areas, Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, especially at this price level. This moth saw a HUGE jump in the A/R. We are still to the Buyer’s Market side, though.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 20 listings, with about 4.0 months of supply. Sales were 5 for April… 5 for last year. And month to month sales were down sharply (5 v 9). I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while. Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it has been looking better than the much of the rest of the County at this price level. That A/R is great, but not stable.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 22 homes listed and approximately 13.2 months of inventory on the market. The 3 sales for April were better than the 1 last year and the 1 last month. Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 5 sales for the last 3 months was the same as the same 3 months from last year (5 sales).

Above $1m, there were 40 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 30 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 4 sales in the Feb-Apr period this year, and 4 for the same time last year. We should be posting four sales a month here regularly… and we fell short last month but barely had a start with it this month with 1 sale. There were 2 sales last year and there were 2 for last month.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

Is $1,000,000 Burning a Hole in Your Pocket? (lanebailey.com)

Mortgage Flowchart…

Wednesday, 29 May 2013 08:07

Written by Lane Bailey

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“Do I Qualify for a Mortgage Loan?” – RealEstate.com Flowchart

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, April 2013

Monday, 27 May 2013 09:42

Written by Lane Bailey

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Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, April, 2013, indicate that there were 635 properties on the market, up 29 from last month. Overall, there was about a 3.4 month supply of properties. In 2012, sales for April were at 256, so 168 sales was a big decrease, year over year. Last month’s sales were at 217. But, coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January-February through about June-August. This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we could be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 465 listings, with about a 3.0 month supply of homes. Sales were down from April, 2012 (136 v 237), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories. Last year in this segment, there were over 900 listings v under 500 now. This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 3.01 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories. Month over month sales were down from 174 last month. Again, there was a big drop in listed properties for this month.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 147 listings for sale, and about 5.0 months of supply. Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side. The 31 sales for April, 2013 trounced the 18 from last year, but not the super strong 42 sales last month. We had been close but slipped back into Seller’s Market territory here… again.

From $400k to $600k, there are 17 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 25.5 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There was 1 sale for April, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months June11, through good, but sporadic sales. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 34 11 months ago and 4.5 four months ago). While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 3 listings, with about 12 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in April. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011. There were 4 sales in 2012.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 3 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July 12. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.