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The case to buy now…

This is not meant for everyone. But, for the right people, this should be a must read. Those people are:

  • First time buyers
  • People that aren’t selling a property to buy another
  • Those living in a high demand area and looking to move to a lower demand area
  • Long term investors

If you are in one of these groups, I would recommend looking around and thinking about the future. We know that the real estate market downturn will go away. We know that values will begin to rise. What we don’t know is exactly when… or if there is much more to fall.

Honestly, looking for the bottom of the market is somewhat of a fruitless search. At its base, “the market” is made of individual sales. And EVERY individual sale has to find its own bottom… and that bottom is only found when a buyer gets an offer accepted. As we have seen in the recent past, that property might change hands and make a new bottom, but I also think it would be fair to say that there isn’t a lot of fat built into the current pricing.

Here is an example:

I know of several similar properties that the owner is thinking of selling*. These are 4plex units. They currently bring in roughly $3500/month in rent, and have longer term renters. The seller is thinking of a price in the range of $450,000/4plex. With a 10% down payment, a buyer could be looking at a P&I of around $2600/month. Even with taxes and insurance, these would be providing positive cash flow from day one. At least a couple hundred dollars a month… and then when we start adding in depreciation…

Of course, the real magic is when we start looking at appreciation. Over the course of 30 years of ownership, one of these properties would provide over $500,000 in income, as well as appreciate to over $1,000,000 in value… while others pay the mortgage. So, one of these properties could net the owner $1.5M.

In this case, the sellers are retiring. Comfortably. And they have moved out of the area.

But, there are a lot of instances where there are great deals on properties. And, one of the things I have learned from investing is that the noise of the market is well behind the curve. When people are talking about the upside… the upside is slowing. When people are looking at the downside… the downside is slowing.

The more I see on the news and the more I hear about how bad the real estate market looks, the more I know that the deals are there and the turn is coming.

Need a little more proof? Look back at the top of the housing bubble. Or the top of the tech bubble. Or the bottom of the last real estate meltdown.

So, if you are thinking of being a buyer, and you have good credit, this might be a good time to do it. I would counsel that you get together with a local real estate agent (like me) and also talk with a good mortgage broker (I have a couple that I can recommend). Look at the options. It might not be the time for YOU… or it might.

*I do not have these properties listed and would likely be serving as a Buyer’s Agent on the purchase of one of these properties.

REtechSouth coming to Atlanta

I got a call this afternoon from Matt Fagioli with Diamond Dwellings. His brokerage is a presenting sponsor of the REtech South Conference which is coming to Atlanta on March 27th, 2008.

REtechSouth Logo(ok, ok, this is an industry event… but I have some local industry readers…)

Basically, it is a

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Sunday Video Sunday…

As per usual, it’s video day.

The first video is an old video of Road Atlanta. It is from the 1985 IMSA event. There are a few things that are interesting here. The first is that they open with Stone Mountain, where I live. It is only a few minutes from my home and office (which is in Tucker). The next thing that is interesting is that the narrator of the driver’s point of view on the TV lap is Wally Dallenbach, Jr. I photographed him for a sponsor in the early 1990’s. Finally, and the reason I included this clip is the footage of the old configuration of Road Atlanta.

In the old layout, pay close attention to the last part of the track, specifically what they refer to as “the hollow” and the bridge turn. It was one of the most famous and difficult sections of any track in the world. Coming off of the mile long back straight, the car falls into the dip. It really feels like the car has dropped off of the planet. As the road surface comes back up, the car buries its suspension, as it enters the braking zone. Because of the G-load (coming up the hill), the brakes can be applied VERY hard. Then comes the bridge turn… I’ve heard it referred to as driving into a two car garage at 100mph… slightly sideways… blind.

As the car approaches the turn, you move to the left side of the track under braking. Turn back to the right and point the car at the right side bridge abutment. As the car crests the hill under the bridge, apply the throttle. It should drift out away from the abutment. Stay on the gas over the hill. The corner workers should wave the flag if there is anything bad on the track. Pray and stand on the gas.

The next video is more recent… It is from last November. Again, pay attention after the straight (which isn’t exactly straight)… Because of the high degree of danger of turn 11 (the bridge turn), it was changed to be safer. A lot of long time road A fans don’t like the change. But, I love the sound of a big V8 on the track.

The final (and bonus) video is also based in Atlanta…This one is an Atlanta Region SCCA Autocross. This is a very approachable motorsport. Take a “normal” street car, and strap on a helmet and then run it through a cone course in a parking lot against a clock. While the speeds are generally under 70mph (in a parking lot), it is quite exciting as a driver. It requires a very good touch and understanding of racing lines.

I hope you had fun.

Niche Marketing… or not?

I used to work in the retail world.  I managed a store.  We did a bit less than $2m/year.  It was part of a mid-sized chain.  We were quite focused on our specific niche.  We sold a particular type of product.

(Am I being too vague here?)

A couple of years before I left, we were purchased by a bigger specialty retailer.  They specialized in the same niche we specialized in…  On the surface, it didn’t seem like it would be a big deal for our clientèle… but it was.

Instead of concentrating on our niche and demonstrating that we were THE experts in our field, they expanded the product lines.  No longer were we to be identified as a niche company.  We should be more things to more people.

No longer were the sales people to be the most knowledgeable about one thing.  It wasn’t about knowing the market for the niche.  It was now about knowing a bit less about more.

My Dad often told me something.  It has stuck with me for a long time:

A specialist knows more and more about less and less until he knows everything about nothing.

A generalist knows less and less about more and more until he knows nothing about everything.

A specialist retailer has to carefully balance expertise with market breadth.  As does a real estate agent.

WalMart doesn’t staff with experts on anything (at least on the floor… unless it is just luck).  Bob’s Left-handed Pen Emporium doesn’t have much of a market… of course, with the internet there is room for Bob.

Look around at the choices for real estate agents.  There are a lot of generalists.

Inexpensively increase the value of your…

Garage!

Seriously.  I see articles and posts about increasing the value of your house through inexpensive kitchen upgrades, bathroom make-overs and landscape tune-ups… but everyone ignores the garage.

We live in and for the garage!

So, here are a few ideas to spruce up the garage.  They are relatively cheap, and will make the garage look much better.

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