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Category Archives: norcross

A Perfect Storm for “Move-Up Buyers”?

Wednesday, 30 May 2012 08:00
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Interest rates are at historic lows… leading to incredible affordability.

Picture of the

Picture of the "Gingerbread House" in Essex, Connecticut, USA (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Entry level inventories are at historic lows… leading to some price strength at base price levels.

Still some weakness at some “move-up” price levels… leading to great deals on homes at those price levels.

For a while now, many of us in the real estate world have been saying two things.  First, until jobs come back and people feel secure, real estate would struggle.  Second, the market wouldn’t come back until “move-up” buyers were in a position to make a move.

I don’t know that the majority of consumers are “comfortable” with their job situation, but when they are, the deals will start to dry up.  Those that get off the fence early will have the best choice of bargains… and inventories are actually dropping.

Move-up buyers had been somewhat locked into their homes with crappy resale values.  They couldn’t afford to move out and be in a position to put anything down on another house.  But now that there is a bit of stability in in the entry level, more of those buyers ARE able to sell and move up the market.

 

If you want to see if you are in a position to trade up, give me a call.  Lane Bailey 678-200-5895.

But the News Said…

Wednesday, 23 May 2012 08:00
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English: Change of the Case-Shiller Home Price...

English: Change of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index relative to its peak values in 1989 and 2006. Series starting in 1989 is in blue. Series starting in 2006 is in red. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

One of the comments I hear the most is “but the news said…”.  There are always stories on the news about the NAR (National Association of REALTORS®) market stats, Case-Shiller or others.  Most of the statistics are based on national numbers.  Case Shiller is a little more local, in that it is based on the local area… if you can call the Atlanta region “local”.

One thing I would note is that the Atlanta region DOES tend to track pretty close to national averages.  But being pretty close isn’t the same as being the same.  And even if it were, there is a huge difference between the Atlanta Metro area and Gwinnett County… much less Suwanee, or the Morningview subdivision.

And that is the problem…

We can’t listen to the news and have a clear picture of what it means for our house or our neighborhood.  It would be the same as looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and deciding whether a specific stock was going to go up or down.

But that is exactly what people do… They see a report on the network news and then decide that houses are over-priced, under-priced or whatever.  When the real fact is that some market segments are rocking bargains right now… there is too much inventory and not enough buyers.  Other segments have scarce inventory and homes are selling as fast as they are listed (if they are priced appropriately).  But the national news… or even the local news… can’t be that exact in their reporting.

Unlike a lot of real estate professionals, I don’t begrudge the news for reporting the “big picture” story on the real estate market.  We DO need to know what is happening on a national basis.  But we also need to remember that there are vast differences between neighborhoods, price ranges, ZIP codes, school areas, etc.

The best bet is to talk with a local agent… I have monthly market reports on 7 cities in Gwinnett County, GA.  If this is your area, you can get a much better idea of what is going on around you.  If you really want to know what is happening, let me know and we’ll talk about YOUR house.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, March 2012

Monday, 07 May 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Norcross GA, March, 2012 indicate that there were 253 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.5 month supply of properties.  The last year has been fairy strong… although April and May weren’t that strong (April, 2011 was below 2010)… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  February saw 51 sales, well under the 59 for February, 2011, and slightly over the 48 for February.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 136 listings, with about 3.7 month supply.  Sales are well off from last month and from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (36 v 43 in Mar11 & 42 Feb12).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At just over a 3½ month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 82 listings for sale, and about 11.7 months of supply.  This segment had been weakening for the last few months.  But, the 11 sales were OK compared to last year’s 10 sales, but kicked last month’s 4 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  We really need a strong March for this segment to look good.  Right now it is among the weakest in the county.

From $400k to $600k, there were 30 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate is around 18 months.  The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January.  March’s 3 sales were up from the 1 the month before and down from last year’s 5 sales.  This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell…  The good news is that it would only take a few sales to put it back in a balanced range.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 2 listings on the market.  Inventories doubled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 6.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, the last in November, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.  February had 1 sale.  The were 0 sales for Mar12, 1 for Mar11.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 0 homes listed on the market and 1 sale in March.  There were no sales last year, nor last month.  Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there were 3 properties listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Prices Up? Prices Down? WTH??

Wednesday, 25 April 2012 08:00
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Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Photo credit: planspark)

Just in the last two days I have heard reported on the national news that prices have stabilized (link to the NAR release here) and that prices were declining in 16 of the 20 top metro areas (Case-Shiller link here).

How can these two stories be squared?

Honestly, I don’t think that they can be…  and given experience with past “interpretations” by the NAR, I’m inclined to not believe the NAR numbers.  Actually… I believe the numbers, but not the interpretation.

Case-Shiller looks at actual properties in some of their surveys.  Rather than looking at averages or medians, they sample properties.  By looking at repeat sales of the same address, they can better determine what prices are doing.

Pretty much every other study looks at all of the sales and then breaks it down to average or median prices.  The problem then is that if more expensive homes are selling, it looks like values are going up.  If less expensive homes are selling, it looks like prices are going down.

Of course, nothing is perfect.

The problem is that there are a LOT of ways that data can be sliced and diced.  And EVERYONE that looks at the data has an agenda.  Some may be better at ignoring their personal bias, but it is still there.

My take?  I don’t think we are quite ready to recover.  Yet.  I think that the bottom line is that until there is a recovery in jobs (not the unemployment rate, but the employment rate), there will be no recovery in the hosing market.  And that shakes out to local areas…

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, February 2012

Monday, 02 April 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Norcross GA, February, 2012 indicate that there were 260 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about a 5.6 month supply of properties.  The last year has been fairy strong… although April and May weren’t that strong (April, 2011 was below 2010)… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all.  February saw 48 sales, ever so slightly below the 43 for February, 2011, and well under the 40 for January.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 139 listings, with about 3.5 month supply.  Sales are well off from last month but only slightly up from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (42 v 32 in Feb11 & 33 Jan12).  For the last seven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers.  This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA.  At just under a 3½ month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 83 listings for sale, and about 17.8 months of supply.  This segment has been weakening for the last four months.  The 4 sales were well off compared to last year’s 7 sales, and down from last month’s 6 sales.  Even though it isn’t gangbusters, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  We really need a strong March for this segment to look good.  Right now it is among the weakest in the county.

From $400k to $600k, there were 30 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 22.5 months. The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January. February’s 1 sale was flat with 1 from the month before and from last year’s 4 sales. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… The good news is that it would only take a few sales to put it back in a balanced range.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 4 listings on the market.  Inventories doubled compared to last year.  The Absorption Rate is at 12 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, the last in November, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other.  One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.  February only had 1 sale.  Of course, that is better than the 0 last February. 

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 1 home listed on the market and no sales… seemingly forever.

Above $1m, there were 3 properties listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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