Category Archives: sellers

State of the Market for the North Gwinnett HS Area

Wednesday, 07 August 2013 10:04

Written by Lane Bailey

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Real estate is local… and one of the biggest influences in real estate is the local schools. Great schools spur demand. Mediocre schools lag. People actively seek a way out of bad school districts. It isn’t the only thing that pushes value and demand, but it certainly is one of the big drivers.

Transportation, jobs and local amenities are also drivers. Depending on the type of buyers, things like hospitals may pull one demographic, while shopping and restaurants may pull in another.

In the case of the schools in the NGHS cluster (Roberts, Suwanee, Level Creek and Riverside Elementary; North Gwinnett Middle School and North Gwinnett High School), there is a draw from the quality of the schools. People WANT to be in this area to have access to these schools.

Because of that, we are seeing prices push up and inventories push down. In fact, when looking at the sales, the recent decreases look to be largely because there simply isn’t enough inventory to support more sales. So, while at first glance it may look like this area is slowing down, the problem is that there just isn’t any supply to allow a higher number of sales. The North Gwinnett Cluster consists of parts of Suwanee and a little bit of Sugar Hill.

Since schools are one of the big drivers of demand, MANY consumers search for real estate based on schools. Unfortunately, there are a lot of homes that are incorrectly entered, causing homes that are NOT in the cluster to land in the search results… and even throwing off the statistics, as homes outside of the correct area are included in statistical samples.

Working with an agent that lives and works in the area you are interested in helps to sort out some of the chaff… but even then I see a lot of agents that have been in the market area a long time kind of “forget” that several new schools opened 3 years ago… and that the alignment and attendance zones changed. One easy way to tell… any listing with North Gwinnett High School and Lanier Middle School together is wrong…

If you are interested in a home in the North Gwinnett Cluster, or if you want to sell your home in the North Gwinnett Cluster, give Lane a call…

Duluth, GA, Market Report, June 2013

Monday, 05 August 2013 09:13

Written by Lane Bailey

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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Duluth, June, 2013 indicated that there were 291 properties on the market, up 15 from last month. Overall, there was about a 4.0 month supply of properties. Sales in June were 79, down from 98 a year earlier. Sales were down compared to the last month (80). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last few months. It is still in the Seller’s Market zone.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 78 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 2.5 month supply. The Absorption Rate for last June was 2.8. Sales were WAY down this year v last year (35 v 52), and up compared to last month (31). The Absorption Rate (A/R) is a bit better than much of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 83 listings for sale, and about 3.5 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again. Sales were up compared to June, 2012 (28 v 21) and compared to last month (25). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing as well as I would have expected… but it might be constrained somewhat due to low inventories. It is still a Seller’s Market.

From $400k to $600k, there were 31 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate was around 3.7 months. June brought in 5 sales. There were 13 last year and 11 last month. Unlike many of the market areas, Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, especially at this price level. Last month saw a HUGE drop in the A/R. We’ve spent the last few months wandering around in Buyer’s Market territory. However, because of the drop in listings and increase in sales, this is ostensibly the best Seller’s Market in the county.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 33 listings, with about 7.1 months of supply. Sales were 4 for June… 5 for last year. And month to month sales were down a little (4 v 5). I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while. Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it has been looking better than the much of the rest of the County at this price level. That A/R is great, and getting better.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 8.6 months of inventory on the market. The 5 sales for June were worse than the 6 last year and the 0 last month. Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 8 sales for the last 3 months were well under the same 3 months from last year (13 sales).

Above $1m, there were 43 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 11.7 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 11 sales in the Apr-Jun period this year, and 8 for the same time last year. We should be posting four sales a month here regularly… and we fell short the last few months but barely had a start with it this month with 2 sales. There was 1 sale last year and there was 8 last month.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

Is $1,000,000 Burning a Hole in Your Pocket? (lanebailey.com)

Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2013

Friday, 02 August 2013 08:58

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, June, 2013, indicate that there were 657 properties on the market, up 10 from last month. Overall, there was about a 3.4 month supply of properties. In 2012, sales for June were at 272, so 211 sales was a big decrease, year over year. Last month’s sales were at 207. But, coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January-February through about June-August. This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we could be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 456 listings, with about a 2.9 month supply of homes. Sales were down from June, 2012 (169 v 248), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories. Last year in this segment, there were over 800 listings v under 460 now. This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 2.85 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories. Month over month sales were down from 175 last month.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 172 listings for sale, and about 5.2 months of supply. Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side. The 39 sales for June, 2013 was well over the 29 from last month, and destroyed the 23 sales last year. We are barely into Buyer’s Market territory here… again. Month to month there is a lot of volitility, but over the longer term, it is WAY better than it had been.

From $400k to $600k, there are 20 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 10 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There were 3 sales for June, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months June11, through good, but sporadic sales. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 25.5 two months ago). While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 15 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in June. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011. There were 4 sales in 2012. May booked the only sale so far in 2013.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 4 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July 12. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro real estate info

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

I’m Always Up For a Good Surprise.. (lanebailey.com)
Gwinnett County Public Schools Making Changes… (lanebailey.com)

Buford, GA, Market Report, June 2013

Monday, 29 July 2013 09:38

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Buford, GA, June, 2013 indicate that there were 3239 properties on the market, an increase of 15 from last month. Overall, there was about an 4.0 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R). There were 76 sales for June, down from 88 last month and well down from the 102 sales last June12. It isn’t the strongest market in Gwinnett, but the A/R is nothing to sneeze at. It is still in Seller’s Market territory.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 127 listings, with a 2.7 month supply. This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area. Sales were down from last month 42 (v 52 last month), and well down compared to last year (68 sales in June12). But, the A/R is well under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a solid seller’s market. This time of year we are usually seeing an increase is sales… and listings.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 137 listings for sale, and about 4.1 months of supply. The 32 sales recorded were down from the 35 last month and up from the 29 sales last year for June. This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but had improved dramatically until a few months ago it was fairly balanced, though tilted towards buyers… now it is further into Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 50 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 16.7 Months. There have been 9 sales in the last 3 months (7 for April, 0 for May and 2 for June). When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year. Just for comparison, there were 15 sales in the Apr-Jun period in 2012. This segment has been bouncing all over the place, though…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 7 listings. Absorption Rate is 21 months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 7 had made things look less slow… but they are back on the rise. There was 1 sale in June last year and 1 in May this year. There were 0 sales in June this year.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 4 homes listed. Trends are hardly definable. Listings are down. February was the last recorded sale. There was 0 sales in June. So it now has a 24.0 month Absorption Rate.

Above $1m, there were 14 properties listed. There was sale in the segment in April… of 2009…and then May, 2011… and 2 sales in June, 2011… also 1 in July and September, 2012. There was 0 sales in June. So, we have 42 months of inventory. I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier opened for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, June 2013

Friday, 26 July 2013 09:24

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , June, 2013 indicates that there were 91 homes on the market. down 8 from last month. Overall, there is about an 2.7 month supply (3.0 last month). There were 36 sales, compared to 39 last month and 39 last June. Of course, then there were 139 listings on the market.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there were 46 listings, with about 2.4 months supply. There were 17 sales this June, well below last year for the same time (30). There were 23 sales last month. Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling. This time of year we often see a slight increase in listings… but we are very low. In fact, sales may be stifled by lack of inventory. Things have been a little choppy, though… up one month, down the next, then back up.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 37 listings for sale, and about 2.7 months of supply. Last June there was a 5.4 month supply. There were 9 sales then, this year there were 18. Last month had 15 sales. This month was gang-busters. We are back in Seller’s Market territory here. Of note, from May, 2012, to June, 2012, the Absorption Rate dropped from 10.5 months of inventory to 5.4. It had spent almost a year above 10… and now has spent a year below 10.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 5 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 7.5 months, but with 1 sale this month, it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. I’ve finally started to see some consistency here. Hopefully we’ll have a little more action during the rest of the active selling season.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were 3 homes listed for sale in these price ranges. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.