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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, June 2013

Friday, 26 July 2013 09:24

Written by Lane Bailey

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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , June, 2013 indicates that there were 91 homes on the market. down 8 from last month. Overall, there is about an 2.7 month supply (3.0 last month). There were 36 sales, compared to 39 last month and 39 last June. Of course, then there were 139 listings on the market.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there were 46 listings, with about 2.4 months supply. There were 17 sales this June, well below last year for the same time (30). There were 23 sales last month. Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling. This time of year we often see a slight increase in listings… but we are very low. In fact, sales may be stifled by lack of inventory. Things have been a little choppy, though… up one month, down the next, then back up.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 37 listings for sale, and about 2.7 months of supply. Last June there was a 5.4 month supply. There were 9 sales then, this year there were 18. Last month had 15 sales. This month was gang-busters. We are back in Seller’s Market territory here. Of note, from May, 2012, to June, 2012, the Absorption Rate dropped from 10.5 months of inventory to 5.4. It had spent almost a year above 10… and now has spent a year below 10.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 5 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 7.5 months, but with 1 sale this month, it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. I’ve finally started to see some consistency here. Hopefully we’ll have a little more action during the rest of the active selling season.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were 3 homes listed for sale in these price ranges. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

Affordability… The Forgotten Aspect of Home Buying

Wednesday, 24 July 2013 08:27

Written by Lane Bailey

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In early June, 2013, the interest rates for home purchases were hovering around 3.5%. In July, those rates were hanging out at 4.5%.

Historical U.S. Prime Rates (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

There are two ways to look at that…

Mortgages jumped in expense drastically between those two points.
Looking at rates from a historical perspective, 4.5% is a screaming deal.

But in fact, there is a third, often overlooked aspect that needs to be addressed.

Rates are STILL expected to rise over the next few months and years.

As a home buyer in the market, assuming a housing payment budget of $1500/mo (for comparison, we’re just going to use PI… Principle and Interest… and not include Taxes and Insurance).

With a 3.5% interest rate, the buyer could get a loan of about $334,000.
With a 4.5% interest rate, it drops to about $296,000
When the rate rises to 5.5% (and it eventually will…), that loan amount will drop to about $264,000.

Buying berries (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Seeing the difference between 3.5% and 5.5% means a drop in purchasing power of almost $70,000 with the same payment, it becomes painfully obvious that interest rates are at least as important as price when it comes to affordability.

Yet, many buyers will delay on the purchase, trying to find the right price, while the interest rates pushes properties out of their grasp that they COULD have purchased previously. Let’s not mistake… price IS important… but it is only part of the picture.

Looking forward

Looking forward at the real estate market, from late July, 2013, there are a variety of thoughts and opinions.

We are expecting a slow-down in closings for July, compared to the pace we saw in May and June. Granted, those were pretty active months. I would think that the lion’s share of the slow-down may be attributable to increased interest rates and housing costs. There was a HUGE bump at the end of June… rates jumped almost ¾% over one weekend.

Moving into August and September, I expect to see sales rebound somewhat. Interest rates WILL have an impact, but I think that we will also be seeing the wave of initial buyers subside. There was a tremendous pent-up demand… and there is still a significant number of buyers on the edge of entering the market… that dived in at the first signs of recovery.

As more buyers are able to sell their homes without injecting huge amounts of cash, and more buyers feel more secure abut their employment, they will look to move up or purchase.

Is it too late?

No… but it does require a different thought process than a year or two ago. Then, deals were everywhere. Buyers didn’t have to be quick, and they didn’t have to make competitive offers on most properties. But now, buyers NEED to be ready to offer when they see a property. They also need to be ready to start with their best offer… they might not have a second chance to offer on that property. Sellers are not required to send out a call for “Highest and Best” after getting multiple offers. Many don’t.

But in 3-5 years, when buyers are looking back on the opportunities they had today, they WILL see that there were great deals to be had. They just required more of a fight than they did when there were fewer buyers in the market and more properties available.

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, June, 2013

Monday, 22 July 2013 08:22

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, June, 2013 indicate that there were 3507 properties on the market (up from 350 last month). Overall, there was about a 3.3 month supply of properties (down from 3.8 last month). June had 119 sales. Compared to June, 2012 (93), this year was WAY up, but inventory was down compared to 2012 (455). There were 118 sales last month, so this month was up ever so slightly. The machine has really cranked up over the last couple of months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 51 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 2.3 month supply (compared to 2.3 months supply last year). This June’s sales were 21 (36 last year, 21 last month). It used to be a county leader, though, for now it is moving back to one of the best price/locale segments again. The next level up is coming up fast, though. Last year at this time, there were 116 listings. Sales are being killed by last year’s, but the way the inventory has dropped, there is a pretty good chance that the low inventory is constricting sales.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 190 listings for sale (191 last year, 194 last month), and 2.9 months of supply. Sales in June, 2013 were 73 (71 in May), compared with 42 for the same period in 2012. Sales have rocked for the last few months. I’d like to see it stay up past 50 sales or so for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks. Make no mistake, this is still basically in Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 62 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 4.1 months (4.9 in May). There were 17 sales in June (17 last month)… up from 9 last year at this time. Looking at the three month average, there were 45 sales this year and 30 for the same period last year. This segment had become dramatically stronger in the last couple of months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 25 listings, with about a 4.4 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 7 sales this month (8 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 17… For the same time last year, the sales were 9. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. It is fairly strong right now… we’ll have to see if it holds.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 12 homes listed and 72 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level in 2011. There were 7 in 2012. This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity. There was 1 sale in March.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 17 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 17 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. There was 1 sale in June, but 3 in the Apr-Jun time frame, 2 the year before.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

Lilburn, GA Market Report, May, 2013

Monday, 08 July 2013 08:38

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, May, 2013, indicate that there were 194 properties on the market, up 15 from last month. Overall, there was about an 3.4 month supply of properties and 61 properties that closed (sold) in May. It was a slight decrease from last year’s sales (68) and from April’s (50 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 3.44 months of inventory, it is strong now. Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 126 listings, with about an 2.8 month supply with 51 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales were up from last month (38), and down from last year (59). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn. At 2.84 months of inventory, with a few months of stats getting better, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 57 listings for sale, and about 4.9 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance… only to stall a bit again. There were 9 sales compared to 12 last month and 8 last year. Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. The decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like. April was strong… We are in Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 9 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 27 months. There was 1 sale in May. Poised for a comeback, but an increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen. To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Mar12). If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 2 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students in the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

Norcross, GA, Market Report, May 2013

Friday, 05 July 2013 09:10

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Norcross GA, May, 2013 indicate that there were 123 properties on the market, down 4 from last month. Overall, there is about a 2.7 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all. May saw 48 sales, up a little from the 44 last month, but down compared to the 57 for May last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 59 listings, with about 2.3 month supply. Sales are up a little from last month (25) and way down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (27 v 37 – May13 v May12). For the last two years, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers. This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At a 2.30 month A/R, this is pretty strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 43 listings for sale, and about 3.2 months of supply. This segment had been weakening for the last few months. But, the 16 sales were flat from last year’s 16 sales, but up from last month’s 10 sales. Even though it isn’t as gangbusters as some of the other areas, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010. I think this is starting to look like a pretty settled market here…

From $400k to $600k, there were 18 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 3.2 months. The AR had been fairly steady all summer, then shot WAY up in September/October. May’s 5 sales were down from the 8 last month and up from last year’s 3 sales. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… for the last few months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 2 listings on the market. The Absorption Rate is at 6.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings. The was 0 sales for May13, 1 for Apr13 and 0 for May12.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 0 homes listed on the market and 0 sales in May. There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.