No one will say that 2009 hasn’t been an interesting year in real estate.  If you have been on the buyer side of the market, there have been amazing deals available, as well as difficulty in trying to buy in some segments… or if there were credit challenges.  If you have been on the selling side, the competition for buyers has been intense.  And the bank owned properties and short sales haven’t helped.

Looking back over the last couple of months for Lawrenceville, GA, the market has moved… a lot.  The biggest thing has been the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.  It has had a GIANT pull on the market, and when it “expired” (it was renewed and expanded before it actually expired, but the effect seemed to expire) it altered the direction of the market… as it did when it was enacted.

Let’s knock out a few numbers…

• There were 1366 Listings as of 12/31/2009
• December currently reports with 172 sales
• The Absorption Rates for Lawrenceville break down as follows:
  • 12 month average – 7.43 months of inventory
  • 6 month average – 6.77 months of inventory
  • 3 month average – 7.30 months of inventory

The link above explains Absorption Rates more fully, but basically, it tells us how long it would take to sell all of the property on the market at the current rate.

Sales for Lawrenceville in December were up 5.5% compared to December 2008.  This was after November was up 60.5% year over year.  Days on Market had also increased by 6 days to 85 days.  One thing to keep in mind though is that there may still be sales that are unreported.

By Segment…

The market is divided up into six segments, but two of them didn’t have any activity in the last 12 months.

Under $200k…

There were 958 listings and 147 sales in December.  Looking back the 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 6.1/5.4/5.6 months.  I expected the 3mo rate to be a little better because of the accelerating sales, but that wasn’t the case.  The Under $200k segment is by far the strongest, though.

$200k – $400k…

There were 361 listings and 23 sales in December.  The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 12.7/12.7/13.4 months.  I also expected the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit to have a little more impact on the 3mo rate, but sales slowed anyway.  The $200k – $400k segment hasn’t really stirred in 2009.

$400k – $600k…

There were 30 listings and 2 sales in December.  The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 18.9/13.8/30 months.  This segment wasn’t as affected by the tax credit as lower priced homes. I was a little surprised at the way the sales dropped in the last quarter.  Of course, the big game changer was July.

$600k – $800k, $800k – $1m and Over $1m…

There were a total of 17 listings and 5 sales in the last 12 months.  The Absorption Rates can be calculated, but they really aren’t meaningful.  One extra sale or one missed sale make a HUGE swing in the data.  Also, these homes are not likely to be affected by the old tax credit or the newer expanded tax credit.

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