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Author Archives: Lane Bailey

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, March, 2013

Friday, 19 April 2013 11:59
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...Market stats for Suwanee, GA, March, 2013 indicate that there were 337 properties on the market (up from 315 last month). Overall, there was about a 5.6 month supply of properties (up from 4.8 last month). March had 65 sales. Compared to March, 2012 (100), this year was WAY down, but inventory was down compared to 2012 (420). There were 66 sales last month, so this month was ever so slightly.  I’m a little surprised that sales were this low.  Inventory HAS to be responsible for part of that.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 70 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 3.8 month supply (compared to 2.7 months supply last year). This March’s sales were 16 (42 last year, 24 last month). It used to be a county leader, though, for now it is moving back to one of the best price/locale segments again. The next level up is coming up fast, though. Sales were likely limited by constricted inventory. Last year at this time, there were 115 listings.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 177 listings for sale (195 last year, 167 last month), and 5.5 months of supply. Sales in March, 2013 were 38 (32 in February), compared with 42 for the same period in 2012. Sales have been consistent for the last few months, but have fallen off somewhat for the last five months. I’d like to see it get up to around 50 sales or so for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks. Make no mistake, this is still pretty much in Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 49 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 8.7 months (6.0 in February). There were 6 sales in March (6 last month)… down from 10 last year at this time. Looking at the three month average, there were 17 sales this year and 19 for the same period last year. This segment had become dramatically stronger in the last couple of months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 20 listings, with about a 6.0 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there was 3 sales this month (4 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 10… For the same time last year, the sales were 6. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. It is fairly strong right now… we’ll have to see if it holds.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 6 homes listed and 18 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level in 2011. There were 7 in 2012. This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity. There was 1 sale in March.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 15 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 45 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 24 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. There was 1 sale in March, but 1 in the Jan-Mar time frame, 4 the year before.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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It’s Even In the BAD School Districts Now…

Wednesday, 17 April 2013 08:01
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And no, I am NOT going to volunteer which ones those are…

Gwinnett County, Georgia

Gwinnett County, Georgia (Photo credit: Dougtone)

Today during our weekly brokerage meeting, my broker was talking about builder activity.  South Forsyth County has been going nuts for a few months now.  And since inventory has been so low and demand so high, he mentioned that it’s even spilling over into bad school clusters…

Frankly, I got a kick out of that.

 

But, it is also VERY true.  We’ve been seeing inventories drop like a rock in a lot of pockets.  Interest rates are trolling along at unbelievably low levels and prices are still suppressed by short sale and foreclosure activity.  Gwinnett is moving in a strong direction…  Forsyth has been there for a while and we have watched as the builders moved further up-market… now it seems like there is a LOT of activity in the $500k range.  A year ago, it would have been suicidal for a builder to put up anything at that price… now they are pre-selling half of their lots before getting a model built.

In fact, one community opened in the last few days and had people CAMPING out over night to be first in line to reserve houses…  Real estate is such a deal right now that it is getting BLACK FRIDAY attention.

 

Rural public high school, Walkertown, Forsyth ...

Rural public high school, Walkertown, Forsyth County, NC (Photo credit: Government & Heritage Library, State Library of NC)

I need to be quick to point out that Gwinnett isn’t quite as far along as Forsyth in that regard… GREAT if you are a buyer, and not too bad if you are a seller.  Forsyth had a little advantage in that there weren’t as many foreclosures as in Gwinnett.  Gwinnett is also a much larger market, so it takes more to turn it.  But we are seeing dramatic decreases in “wholesale” activity (foreclosures) as well as distressed properties like short sales.  At the same time, “retail” sales are surging and inventories are dropping.

 

So, while prices are still struggling a little, they are much stronger than the last few years, and often, well prices homes are pulling in multiple offers… even over listed price.

 

If you want to have a conversation about YOUR Gwinnett County home, give me a call.

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Lilburn, GA Market Report, February 2013

Monday, 15 April 2013 11:51
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...Market stats for Lilburn, GA, February, 2013, indicate that there were 183 properties on the market, down 24 from last month. Overall, there was about an 3.9 month supply of properties and 47 properties that closed (sold) in JFebruary. It was a slight increase from last year’s sales (43) and from January (45 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 3.87 months of inventory, it is strong now. Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market. And it is one of a very few that got better in February.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 119 listings, with about an 3.2 month supply with 39 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales were up a little from last month (36), and from last year (also 36). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn. At 3.16 months of inventory, with a few months of stats getting better, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 54 listings for sale, and about 6.0 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance… only to stall a bit again. There were 7 sales compared to 9 last month and 7 last year. Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. The decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like. July month was quite strong. April was strong… We are in Balanced Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 7 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 10.5 months. There was 1 sale in February. Poised for a comeback, but an increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen. To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Feb12). If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back. Right now, low listings numbers give the appearance of strong activity.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 3 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students in the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

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Norcross, GA, Market Report, February 2013

Friday, 12 April 2013 09:38
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...Market stats for Norcross GA, February, 2013 indicate that there were 143 properties on the market, up 5 from last month. Overall, there is about a 4.1 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all. February saw 32 sales, on par compared to the 36 for January, but down compared to the 48 for February last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 73 listings, with about 3.1 month supply. Sales are down from last month and way down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (20 v 28 in Jan13 & 42 Feb12). For the last two years, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers. This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At a 3 month A/R, this is pretty strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 43 listings for sale, and about 4.6 months of supply. This segment had been weakening for the last few months. But, the 9 sales were up from last year’s 4 sales, and a little above last month’s 8 sales. Even though it isn’t as gangbusters as some of the other areas, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010.  I think this is starting to look like a pretty settled market here…

From $400k to $600k, there were 23 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 11.5 months. The AR had been fairly steady all summer, then shot WAY up in September/October. February’s 3 sales were up from the 0 last month and from last year’s 1 sale. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… The good news is that it only takes a few sales to put it back in a balanced range long term. In June we were at just 5.1 months of inventory and four months ago it was 42 months…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 3 listings on the market. The Absorption Rate is at 18.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings.  The were 0 sales for Feb13, 0 for Jan13 and 1 for Feb12.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 0 homes listed on the market and 0 sales in February. There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

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Buy New? Resale? Renovations?

Wednesday, 10 April 2013 10:05
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As a buyer, it is a tough choice.  New construction in South Forsyth and North Gwinnett are ramping up at an amazing pace.  All of the “PVC farms” that were left in the wake of the crash a few years ago are either already holding homes, or on the way to it.  Builders are pushing crews, and they still have a hard time holding standing inventory.

Interest rates are incredible.  Prices are affordable.

But inventory is problematic.

What is a buyer to do?  A couple of years ago, there were likely scores of homes that met your basic requirements.  Looking at 4 car garage homes, in Gwinnett, just a couple of years ago there were probably 30 at any given time between $200k and $400k.  Today there are just a handful.

First… if you are serious, don’t make the mistake of waiting if you really like the house.  If it is reasonably priced, it WILL sell and it won’t take long.

But each of these segments has pros and cons.

New Homes…

Tagum City Mayor Rey T. Uy signing the contrac...

They have that new home smell…  and a warranty… and since you likely aren’t buying standing inventory, you can specify finishes and colors and floorplans.  That rocks.  But, you WILL pay for every one of those upgrades.  Even if the builder is offering “$25,000 in free upgrades”, they ARE built into the cost of the home.

That doesn’t mean it won’t be worth it.  It might be the best option.  It is easy.  Make your selections and let it happen.  Of course, the drawback is that you aren’t in control.  You have to wait until it is done.  That could be a few weeks or a few months.  And builder contracts are often stacked so that you can’t push on them if they fail to meet deadlines.  Some aren’t… but many are.  There might also be other hidden gems in the contract that prevent you from getting exactly what you want.  Most of the time it works out, but there is that small percentage where the buyer gets bit.

Resales…

What you buy is what you get…  And that is also a knife that cuts both ways.  On one hand, it is pretty obvious what you are getting.  You can walk around the actual floor plan, with the “options” already in place.  You can see the colors in their natural habitat and feel the finishes.  And there might be more room to negotiate with an individual seller vs a builder.  The builder doesn’t want to cut the price on YOUR home because that will show up in the public records… compromising his future negotiating position for that community.

Logo of the National Association of Realtors.

However, you CAN get a warranty.  It won’t be a 15 year structure warranty, but for under $500, you can get a good warranty for the first year of ownership.  And you are probably saving some cash compared to buying the new home.  Don’t forget, if the home is in a subdivision that is built out, you know EXACTLY what you are getting as far as the neighborhood goes.

The Purchase Contracts are generally better, too.  If you are working with a REALTOR®, they should be using state “association contracts”.  I use the contracts generated by the Georgia Association of REALTORS®.  Non-member licensees don’t have access to those contracts unless they pay a licensing fee.  And the non-member contracts are just not on the same standard.  The exception to this is Foreclosures… they generally have an amendment that kills most of the protections in the base contract.  In exchange, you should be getting a better deal on the property for that risk…

Recent Renovations…

Montage of Atlanta images. From top to bottom ...

These are kind of a mix between the other two…  In many ways, they have the best of both worlds, except that there are going to be fewer variable to adjust.  Walls probably aren’t moving even if the work hasn’t been started yet, and if it is “done” then it might as well be a resale… you probably won’t be getting the finishes changed.

But, while most of what you see and touch will be new or refinished, the price will often be less than a comparable new home.  You can still get the 1 year warranty.  The builder doing the conversion MAY stand behind the work they have done.  Appliances and systems MAY also have longer warranties as well.

And Finally…

Buying a house ready for a renovation isn’t a bad idea, either.  If there isn’t a home that suits YOUR needs, buying one that is ready for a work-over, and then arranging that, may be a great plan.  If there IS a house that meets your needs, it will probably be a better plan, but often, that just isn’t the reality… especially now with the decreased inventories on the market.

If you are in the Atlanta area and would like to know more, give me a shout.  If you are outside of the Atlanta area, I still might know a good local agent that could help you out with their local expertise.

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