Author Archives: Lane Bailey

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, January, 2013

Tuesday, 12 March 2013 12:27

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, January, 2013 indicate that there were 332 properties on the market (up from 308 last month). Overall, there was about a 4.7 month supply of properties (up from 3.8 last month). January had 50 sales. Compared to January, 2012 (40), this year was up, but inventory was down compared to 2011 (468). There were 81 sales last month, so this month was down a good bit. There is generally a dip in January, so the drop in sales isn’t really alarming.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 77 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 3.3 month supply (compared to 4.4 months supply last year). This January’s sales were 15 (17 last year, 32 last month). It used to be a county leader, though, for now it is moving back to one of the best price/locale segments again. The next level up is coming up fast, though. Sales were likely limited by constricted inventory. Last year at this time, there were 131 listings.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 167 listings for sale (201 last year, 148 last month), and 5.0 months of supply. Sales in January, 2013 were 27 (33 in December), compared with 16 for the same period in 2012. Sales have been consistent for the last few months, but have fallen off somewhat for the last five months. I’d like to see get up to around 40 sales or so for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks. Make no mistake, this is still solidly in Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 42 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 4.7 months (3.6 in December). There were 5 sales in January (11 last month)… flat from 5 last year at this time. Looking at the three month average, there were 27 sales this year and 15 for the same period last year. This segment has become dramatically stronger in the last couple of months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 24 listings, with about a 10.3 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there was 3 sales this month (3 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 7… For the same time last year, the sales were 0. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. It is fairly strong right now… but still not where it could be.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 7 homes listed and 10.5 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level in 2011. There were 7 in 2012. This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity. There was 1 sale each in March, July, August, September, October, November and December.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 17 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 15 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. There were 0 sales in January, but 3 in the Nov-Jan time frame, same as the year before.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro real estate info

Empty Theme Parks…

Monday, 11 March 2013 10:00

Written by Lane Bailey

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My family just got back from its (almost) annual trip to Walt Disney World in Florida. It was a marvelous trip… as always… and we had a wonderful time. Each year, we have VERY high expectations for the trip and for the service we’ll receive from the cast members at Disney. We usually stay “on-property”, and this time it was at the Kidani House section of Animal Kingdom Lodge. Last year we stayed at Jambo House – Animal Kingdom Lodge.

Betty White Tour – Stop #5 (Walt Disney Studios) (Photo credit: Loren Javier)

The reason I bring that up is that, while we go with high expectations of guest services, each year they manage to find some way to exceed our expectations. This year was no exception… One of the unexpected little treats was at the Grand Floridian. We usually take a day to visit some of the different resorts to see where we might want to stay in the future, search for “Hidden Mickeys” and just relax a little. While visiting the Grand Floridian, my younger son asked if we could go to the top floor of the main building to look down into the atrium. When we got to the elevators, we figured out the the top 3 floors were all Concierge level and there was no access for non-guests of the Concierge level. But, one of the cast members who happened to be getting off of the elevator asked if we needed assistance. When my 4 year old told him what we wanted to do, he escorted us to the 5th floor and proceeded to tell us all sorts of interesting facts about the resort, hidden Mickeys and other Disney trivia.

That wasn’t our only experience… but it illustrates the ability of Disney’s staff to take it upon themselves to do “just a little more than expected” to give their customers a better experience…

View of main lobby from second floor balcony. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

But the actual reason for the post…

I used to work for Busch Gardens in Williamsburg, VA when I was WAY younger. And ever since, I can’t help but think back to that experience while walking through a theme park. One of my favorite things about working at the park was being there after it closed. One of the jobs I had kept me in the park as much as two hours after closing… and all of the guests would be cleared, as well as many of the other employees.

Walking through an empty theme park is quite enjoyable. The park is clean, quiet and there is no jostling or crowds. It might be a false reality… I wasn’t really walking through a Bavarian village of two centuries ago, or New France… but it was much different than walking in most other places… and it was REALLY quiet. It was almost eery, but not in a bad way. Maybe unexpected is a better word.

Working in a theme park is a fun experience for a young adult. There are a lot of things that happen that make for fun stories later… the people that you encounter, strange weather and even a different kind of work ethic. It is quite entertaining and even possibly enriching.

Lilburn, GA Market Report, December 2012

Friday, 08 March 2013 10:50

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Lilburn, GA, December, 2012, indicate that there were 217 properties on the market, down 27 from last month. Overall, there was about an 4.3 month supply of properties and 50 properties that closed (sold) in December. It was a decrease from last year’s sales (54) and a decrease from November (51 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 4.25 months of inventory, it is reasonably strong now. Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 150 listings, with about an 3.8 month supply with 38 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales were flat from last month (38), but slightly down from last year (43). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn. At 3.75 months of inventory, with a few months of similar stats, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 59 listings for sale, and about 5.9 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance… only to stall a bit again. There were 11 sales compared to 12 last month and 11 last year. Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. The decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like. July month was quite strong. April was strong… At least we are ever so slightly in Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 6 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 6.0 months. There was 1 sale in December. Poised for a comeback, but an increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen. To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Feb12). If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back. Right now, low listings numbers give the appearance of strong activity.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 2 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students in the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

I have a page dedicated to Lilburn Market Data.

Lilburn, GA Market Report, April 2012(lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, May 2012(lanebailey.com)
Lilburn, GA Market Report, July 2012
Lilburn, GA Market Report, August 2012
Norcross, GA, Market Report, September 2012
Lilburn, GA Market Report, September 2012

Norcross, GA, Market Report, December 2012

Thursday, 07 March 2013 10:32

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Norcross GA, December, 2012 indicate that there were 130 properties on the market, down 15 from last month. Overall, there is about a 2.9 month supply of properties. The last year has been fairy strong… it hasn’t slowed much, if at all. December saw 36 sales, below par compared to the 55 for November, and compared to the 53 for December last year.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 74 listings, with about 2.5 month supply. Sales are down from last month and down from a year ago in this segment, which is the main driver of sales in this area (22 v 46 in Dec11 & 37 Nov12). For the last eleven months, the AR has been tilted in favor of sellers. This still looks like one of the strongest price/area segment in Gwinnett County, GA. At well under a 3 month A/R, this is VERY strong for sellers.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 38 listings for sale, and about 3.1 months of supply. This segment had been weakening for the last few months. But, the 11 sales was up from last year’s 4 sales, but was a little below last month’s 15 sales. Even though it isn’t as gangbusters as some of the other areas, it is certainly better than the 28 months of inventory we had in December, 2010. I’m still waiting for this segment to stop bouncing around so much, though.

From $400k to $600k, there were 16 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate is around 6.9 months. The AR had been fairly steady for months, then shot WAY up in January. December’s 3 sales were flat from the 3 last month and up from last year’s 2 sales. This had actually been a pretty good area for homes in this price range to sell… The good news is that it only takes a few sales to put it back in a balanced range long term. In June we were at just 5.1 months of inventory and two months ago it was 42 months…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there was 1 listings on the market. The Absorption Rate is at 3.0 months of inventory… but with only 4 sales in 2010 and 4 sales in 2011, obviously it is easy to bump one way or the other. One reason for the strong looking Absorption Rate last month was that there were so few listings. February had 1 sale. The were 0 sales for Dec12, 0 for Nov12 and 0 for Dec11.

The range from $800k to $1m, there was 0 home listed on the market and 0 sales in December. There were no sales last year. Unfortunately there isn’t enough data for a good A/R number.

Above $1m, there was 1 property listed. But because of the smaller numbers of sales, the absorption rate could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. There is simply not enough activity for an A/R figure. The last sale was January 2011.

Norcross, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 8,410 but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it has seen tremendous growth since that census. The City of Norcross revamped their old town a long time ago, and it has served as a model for other towns in the area. It is also home to Meadow Creek and Norcross High Schools. One of the things that Norcross is known for locally is the beautiful older homes in the downtown area. They have maintained their historic flair quite successfully.

I have a page dedicated to Norcross Market Data.

Norcross, GA, Market Report, February 2012 (lanebailey.com)
Norcross, GA, Market Report, January 2012 (lanebailey.com)
Norcross, GA, Market Report, December 2011 (lanebailey.com)

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

Duluth, GA, Market Report, December 2012

Wednesday, 06 March 2013 11:14

Written by Lane Bailey

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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Duluth, December, 2012 indicated that there were 276 properties on the market, down 14 from last month. Overall, there was about a 4.2 month supply of properties. Sales in December were 58, slightly up from 57 a year earlier. Sales were slightly down compared to the prior month (59). Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last few months. Okay, but not pack leading at the moment.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 87 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 2.4 month supply. The Absorption Rate for last December, was 5.0. Sales were down this year v last year (28 v 35), but down compared to last month (34). The Absorption Rate (A/R) is quite a bit better than most of the county…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 87 listings for sale, and about 4.8 months of supply. Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again. Sales were up compared to December, 2011 (17 v 14) but up compared to last month (16). Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing as well as I would have expected… but it might be constrained somewhat due to low inventories. It is still a slight Seller’s Market.

From $400k to $600k, there were 31 homes on the market. The Absorption Rate was around 5.5 months. December brought in 9 sales. There were 5 last year and 6 last month. Unlike many of the market areas, Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, especially at this price level. Usually we see the A/R soften as we move up in price, but that isn’t happening here. We are slightly to the Seller’s Market side.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 27 listings, with about 10.1 months of supply. Sales were 2 for December… 5 for last year. And month to month sales were flat (2 v 2). Last month was good, but I would like to see three consecutive months with strong sales, and haven’t seen that for a while. Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it has been looking better than the much of the rest of the County at this price level. But not this month…

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 13 homes listed and approximately 39 months of inventory on the market. The 0 sales for December were just like the 0 last year, and the 0 last month. Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 1 sales for the last 3 months was the same as the same 3 months from last year (1 sales). And eleven months ago the A/R was 69 months.

Above $1m, there were 31 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 15.5 months of inventory. A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates. There were 6 sales in the Oct-Dec period this year, and 2 for the same time last year. We should be posting four sales a month here regularly… and we fell short last month but almost had a start with it this month with 2 sales. Last month there was 1 sale and last year there was 1 for December.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.