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Category Archives: lawrenceville

Prices Up? Prices Down? WTH??

Wednesday, 25 April 2012 08:00
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Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Photo credit: planspark)

Just in the last two days I have heard reported on the national news that prices have stabilized (link to the NAR release here) and that prices were declining in 16 of the 20 top metro areas (Case-Shiller link here).

How can these two stories be squared?

Honestly, I don’t think that they can be…  and given experience with past “interpretations” by the NAR, I’m inclined to not believe the NAR numbers.  Actually… I believe the numbers, but not the interpretation.

Case-Shiller looks at actual properties in some of their surveys.  Rather than looking at averages or medians, they sample properties.  By looking at repeat sales of the same address, they can better determine what prices are doing.

Pretty much every other study looks at all of the sales and then breaks it down to average or median prices.  The problem then is that if more expensive homes are selling, it looks like values are going up.  If less expensive homes are selling, it looks like prices are going down.

Of course, nothing is perfect.

The problem is that there are a LOT of ways that data can be sliced and diced.  And EVERYONE that looks at the data has an agenda.  Some may be better at ignoring their personal bias, but it is still there.

My take?  I don’t think we are quite ready to recover.  Yet.  I think that the bottom line is that until there is a recovery in jobs (not the unemployment rate, but the employment rate), there will be no recovery in the hosing market.  And that shakes out to local areas…

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, February 2012

Monday, 26 March 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, February, 2012, indicate that there were 1127 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 5.0 month supply of properties.  In 2011, sales for February were at 152, so 196 sales was a solid increase, year over year.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking pretty good.  Normally the market picks up from January through about June-August.  This year we are not bad, but not quite better than last month (213 sales).

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 942 listings, with about a 4.5 month supply of homes.  Sales were well up from February 2011 (181 v 141).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.46 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The low Absorption Rate (AR) is largely due to strong sales, coupled with lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were down from 205 in January.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 163 listings for sale, and about 13.6 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack.  The 13 sales for February, 2012 were up from the 10 from last year.  They were up significantly from the 7 sales last month.  Sales should have been closer to 20 units for February.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 15 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 22.5 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 2 sales for February, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There was 1 sales in February, 2011.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 three months ago).  While the long term trend was looking better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 6 listings, with about 14.4 months of supply.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 0 sales in February.  There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January.  There was 1 sale last month.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 1 home listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, January 2012

Friday, 24 February 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, January, 2012, indicate that there were 1151 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 4.9 month supply of properties.  In 2011, sales for January were at 148, so 213 sales was a excellent increase, year over year.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking great.  Normally they start weakening in September, but we are rolling right along… but not quite better than last month (264 sales).

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 983 listings, with about a 4.4 month supply of homes.  Sales were way up from January 2011 (205 v 121).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.41 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with lower listing inventories.  Month over month sales were down from 247 in December.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 147 listings for sale, and about 12.3 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack.  The 7 sales for January, 2012 were down from the 18 from last year.  They were down significantly from the 16 sales last month.  Sales should have been closer to 20 units for January.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 17 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 12.8 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 0 sales for January, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There were 2 sales in January, 2011.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 two months ago).  While the long term trend was looking better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 4 listings, with about 6.0 months of supply, again. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in January. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011, 2 of them were last January.  There was 1 sale last month.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 0 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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Wayback Wednesday… Why Hyperlocal Matters in the Real Estate Market

Wednesday, 15 February 2012 08:00
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Downtown Lawrenceville (as of June 2006)

Image via Wikipedia

Last year I was writing about why the only REAL important market report in real estate is a VERY local market report.  It’s all fine and dandy to hear the talking heads on (insert your favorite national news network), but national averages mean nothing on the state level.  Even state averages mean very little in specific counties.  In fact, looking at county level data might only be marginally relevant to a certain city in the county, and even then, there might be specific school districts or subdivisions that buck the trend… one way or another.

I run market reports for Suwanee, Lilburn, Sugar Hill, Buford, Lawrenceville, Norcross and Duluth, and it is surprising how often two cities that are right next to each other in the county will have wildly different market reports.

There is a lot more in the original post…  Hop on over and take a look.

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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, December 2011

Monday, 30 January 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, December, 2011, indicate that there were 1200 properties on the market.  Overall, there was about a 4.7 month supply of properties. In 2010, sales for December were at 176, so 264 sales was a excellent increase, year over year.  Coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are looking great.  Normally they start weakening in September, but we are rolling right along… even better than last month (233 sales).

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 1014 listings, with about a 4.3 month supply of homes.  Sales were way up from December 2010 (247 v 152).  This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area.  With the 4.28 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory.  The big drop in Absorption Rate (AR) is due to strong sales, coupled with lower listing inventories.  In September I was hoping that October would be a follow up… and it was VERY much is what I was looking for… November reinforced that and December rocked it out.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 164 listings for sale, and about 11.2 months of supply.  Oddly, this had one of the weaker segments in the county, now it’s mid-pack.   The 16 sales for December, 2011 were down from the 23 from last year.  They were up slightly from the 13 sales last month.  Sales should have been closer to 25 units for December.  We are still solidly in Buyer’s Market territory here.

From $400k to $600k, there are 17 homes on the market.  The absorption rate is around 10.2 months.  However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact.  There were 0 sales for December, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months in June, through good, but sporadic sales.  There were 1 sale in December, 2010.  This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 7.1 last month).  While the long term trend is looking better, it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 4 listings, with about 12 months of supply, again.  As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there was only 1 sale in December.   There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011. 

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 1 home listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate.  There has only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS.

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta.  As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000).  It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters.  It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College.  Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316.  Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time.  Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples.  Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

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