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Category Archives: investment

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, June 2011

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Image by lane.bailey via Flickr

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, June, 2011 indicate that there are 629 properties on the market (down from 640 last month). Overall, there is about an 8.4 month supply of properties (down from 8.9 last month).  May sales were up (88), but June reversed the trend with just 63 sales.  Compared to 2010 (88), that was very weak.   Inventory was down slightly compared to 2010 (652).

In the Under $200k arena, there are 183 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 5.6 month supply (184 and 6.5, respectively last month).  Last June, there was a 4.8 month supply.  This June’s sales were OK, at 33 (29 last month).  April was VERY strong (37) and last June there were 28.  This is definitely the strongest price segment in Duluth, but not that strong compared to some other areas of the county.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 300 listings for sale (310 last month), and 9.3 months of supply (May was 9.0).  Sales in June, 2011 were 22 (45 in May), compared with 46 for the same period in 2010.  Pretty weak, but even with the decrease in listings, the Absorption Rate (AR) got worse, reversing its trend of the last few months.  So far this year, only February and May posted better sales than 2010.  This segment was MUCH stronger last month.

From $400k to $600k, there are 78 homes on the market (87 last month). The absorption rate is at 14.6 months (14.5 in May).  There were 3 sales in June (10 in May)… down from 11 last June.  Even looking at the three month average, there were 16 sales this year and 28 for the same period last year.  The only good part is that listings are down slightly, and would normally be flat of slightly rising at this time of the year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 30 listings (25 last month), with about a 12.9 month supply (15.0 in May).  Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 3 this month (2 last month).  Looking at one month makes the numbers jump.  For the last three months, sales were 7…  For the same time last year, the sales were 12.  The segment is weak, but we can’t call a trend… three months ago it was looking stronger and it looks a little stronger again… at least stronger than it was.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 11 homes listed and 33 months of inventory on the market.  There were only been 4 sales at this price level last year (1 each in January, April, May and December) and one for April this year.  This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 27 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 13.5 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales.  Again, we can thank reduced inventory for making the market look healthier (4 sales in Mar-May this year and 6 last year).  But, in this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories…  There were 33 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. There were 2 sales for June.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census.  Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, June 2011

Office building of NCR Corporation in Duluth, ...

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Preliminary stats for Duluth, June, 2011 indicated that there were 593 properties on the market. Overall, there is about an 8.9month supply of properties.  Sales in June were 60, compared to 68 a year earlier.  Sales were down compared to both the prior year and the prior month.  Duluth is trailing Gwinnett County as a whole.In the Under $200k arena, there were 249 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 6.5 month supply.  The Absorption Rate as recent as December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for June were up sharply this year v last year (41 v 23), but only slightly up compared to May, 2011 (37).  This segment could do really well, but sales need to strengthen a little more…

Between $200k and $400k, there are 152 listings for sale, and about 9.5 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the right way (down) since February.  Sales were way down compared to June, 2010 (13 v 20).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, and this segment is weak…

From $400k to $600k, there were 52 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 13.4 months.  Two months ago I wrote “Sales might not seem that strong, with only 5 units, especially compared to 8 last year, but I think the problem is with the inventory.  I’ll keep looking for an increase in sales.  Maybe April will show it.”  April did NOT show it.  Sales DIVED to just 1 unit.  May and June, on the other hand, brought in 2 sales each.  There were 10 last year.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 59 listings, with about 13.4 months of supply.  Sales were 0 for June… 7 for June last year.  Month to month sales dived (0 v 3).  I was hoping for somewhere around 12-15 sales for June to show me this segment was coming back… but sales didn’t nudge off the empty mark.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 28 homes listed and approximately 14 months of inventory on the market.  The 1 sale recorded for June was dwarfed by last year’s 4 and dropped 2 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving the right way for the last couple of months.

Above $1m, there were 47 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 17.6 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates…  There were 8 sales in the Apr-Jun period this year, and 12 sales for the same time last year…  The whole summer was weak last year, but we should be posting half a dozen sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Wayback Wednesday… Add-on or Get Out?

I’m not getting this question nearly as much as I used to… but it is still a valid question for many “would-be” buyers (or sellers)…

Should I improve my current home, or just buy a new one?

It isn’t nearly as easy of an answer as it might first seem.  Here is my take on it 3 years ago.  But there are some changes…  Read the old post if you have a moment, then come back and finish this one.  I’ll give a few highlights.

Let’s say that you live in a house that has eroded from $250,000 to $225,000 (10%), and you are looking at a house that went from $500,000 to $450,000 (also 10%).  If you took the $25,000 loss on your existing home, you would save $50,000 on the step up home.  So, you are $25,000 ahead.

Home of Benjamin Harrison, 23rd president of t...

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Well… the house that you might have taken a 10% loss on 3 years ago might be staring at a 25-30% loss now… maybe more, maybe less.  But (this is important) that might be starting to change… might… depending on your neighborhood and even the style of house.  So, we might start seeing some of those great deal disappearing.  At the same time, we might find that a few more prospective sellers can get out of their current home without losing their shirts.  If you can’t afford to sell, then the deals are irrelevant.

Also, in the old post I mentioned interest rates… they were around 6% then, and they are around 4.5% now.  This CAN’T last.

Combining these two items, home affordability hasn’t been better in a VERY long time.  But, you still have to be in a position to make the move… be able to sell your home (and either have equity or the ability to pay off the balance.

Also in the old post I talked about not building too far outside of the “neighborhood norms”.  If the average house in your neighborhood is a 3-4 bedroom, 2-3 bath ranch, building a 6 bedroom two story home is NOT going to pay you back.  I’m not saying that you can’t do it (but check local ordinances and covenants, THEY might say you can’t), I’m saying that you shouldn’t expect to be able to sell it without pain.

Even if you NEVER plan to sell the house, think about resale.  I have sold more than one “I’m never going to move from here” homes for sellers.  Life changed and so did their needs.  They went and bought new “I’m never going to move from here” homes.  Even if you are right… you are never going to move from here, at some point, somebody in the family is likely to sell the house.

 

If you decide that you want to move up (or down or sideways), give me a call.

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Wayback Wednesday… A Foreclosure Mitigation Too Good to be True…

Showing how the rapid rise in in mortgage cred...

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I don’t know about you, but I have heard the stores and even seen the occasional late night TV ad talking about getting out of your mortgage for free.  Two years ago, I wrote about how it was the latest scam being pulled on people facing foreclosure.  And be aware… it is nothing but a scam.

Here is the “meat” of the old post…

Here is the way it works (and it all sounds so legit…):

  • Mr. and Mrs. Consumer buy a house and get a mortgage from MonsterMegaMortgageCompany (MMMC).
  • MMMC sells their mortgage to Investor Pool #1.
  • Then it is bundled and sold to IP#2… and #3 and #4 over a span of a few years.
  • Mr. & Mrs. Consumer start having problems, and despite everything they are facing foreclosure.
  • To try to get help they contact a “Foreclosure Mitigation” Law Firm that fights the foreclosure by filing a “missing title” lawsuit.
  • The law firm (or other entity) charges an up-front fee (maybe $2000) and then monthly fees (maybe $1000 or $1500)… as well as a contingency fee upon settlement of either 50% of the reduction or 75% or 80% of the value if the mortgage were completely eliminated.
  • After stringing along Mr. & Mrs. Consumer for a few months or longer (collecting fees), they fail to actually prosecute the case.
  • Mr. & Mrs. Consumer lose their home…

According to a few of the sources I looked at, their are no recorded examples of any suit of this type EVER being resolved in the consumer’s favor.

There are also a couple of links.  As an update, there are a couple of stories over the last few years of judges setting aside mortgages because the holder could not produce the right paperwork.  But, you have a better chance of getting hit by lightning.  The lenders have gotten smart and are making sure their paperwork is better… and in the few cases that I have heard about mortgages being set aside, the lenders also committed fraud in ginning up the paperwork… and that isn’t likely to happen many more times.

Follow the link above and visit the old post…  It’s lonely.

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A Short Round-Up… Articles of Interest.

Real Estate = Big Money

Image by thinkpanama via Flickr

There are a lot of blog posts and articles over the course of an average week… and you can’t get to them all.  So, here are some home-related links that might be of interest.

Pruning Your Landscaping Costs

Cash Buyers Getting the Sweetest Deals?

“Shadow Inventory” Fading

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