Tag Archives: atlanta

Atlanta Home Prices up 40% From Last Year?

Wednesday, 24 April 2013 10:41

Written by Lane Bailey

1 Comment

According to the AJC, Metro Atlanta home prices shot up an amazing 40% between March, 2012 and March, 2013. This is looking at the median prices for “metro Atlanta”. Unfortunately, they don’t give us a breakdown…

But, I am going to tell you that the news isn’t quite that rosy. And here’s why:

Licensing (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This looks at the median value of properties that closed during each time period (March, 2012 and March, 2013). It doesn’t look at neighborhoods, zip codes or cities. This becomes a problem with what I call “market creep”.

Last year, we were seeing a LOT of investor sales. Many of these were foreclosed properties, being unloaded by banks, at firesale prices. Not only that, but they were VERY often at the extreme low end of the market. These are houses that in a strong market might sell for under $60k or $70k. Granted, their prices were SUPER cheap… sometimes as low as $25k or $30k. But, they were insufficient numbers as to push down the overall market.

*** A quick note about “median” and “average”*** Many people use one or the other, sometimes as if they were interchangeable, but they are quite different.

Average is derived by adding everything up and dividing it by how many there were to add up. So, if you had $1, $2, $10, $37 and $100, it would add up to $150. Divide that by 5, and the average would by $30.

Median is derived by looking at the middle value. With our numbers above, half are above $10, half below. The median would be $10.

This year, we are seeing more expensive homes going on the market. Also, they are less frequently foreclosures or short sales. So, the “normal” listing prices are higher. In effect, houses could be selling for similar prices, but the mix could have changed.

Map of Georgia highlighting Gwinnett County (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Going back to our previous numbers…

This time we had sales of $25, $26, $30, $34 and $35. Our average sale is still $30, but our median sale has now also jumped up to $30.

The sales aren’t really comparable to the previous group, but, it appears that there has been a HUGE increase in the median value. In real estate, these exact numbers aren’t realistic, but the concept is still true.

Here in Gwinnett, we have seen a solid 10% appreciation over the last year. There are pockets where it could be argued higher, and others where it is lower, but 10% is a defensible increase.

In order to REALLY get to the bottom of it, we have to look at subdivisions, and maybe even sections of a subdivision (in the case of the larger ones). Even then, we need to make adjustments for condition and even intangible changes (distressed v non-distressed sales).

The bottom line is that there are VERY few home owners that have seen their properties appreciate even close to 40% in the last year. But there is a reasonable chance that they have seen 10% appreciation.

Going after statistics with a shotgun, like this article did, seeks to erase the differences with a large volume of properties. The problem is that it is misleading to most consumers… buyers AND sellers. About the only thing it does is make some sellers feel better about their homes… but it doesn’t really do that honestly.

If YOU want to find out about YOUR Gwinnett home’s value, give me a shout.

AJC link…

Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, March 2013

Monday, 22 April 2013 11:19

Written by Lane Bailey

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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , March, 2013 indicates that there were 110 homes on the market. down 1 from last month. Overall, there is about an 4.5 month supply (4.8 last month). There were 33 sales, compared to 25 last month and 26 last March. Of course, then there were 153 listings on the market.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there were 63 listings, with about 3.6 months supply. There were 24 sales this March, a little below last year for the same time (25). There were 16 sales last month. Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling. This time of year we often see a slight increase in listings… but we are very low. In fact, sales may be stifled by lack of inventory. Christmas slowed things down, as usual, but it’s time to pick up again.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 43 listings for sale, and about 6.8 months of supply. Last March there was a 30 month supply. There was 1 sale then, this year there were 9. Last month had 8 sales. That makes two of the last three months look pretty strong. We are almost in a Balanced Market here.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 4 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 6.0 months, but with 0 sales this month, it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. I’ve finally started to see some consistency here. Hopefully we’ll have a little more action during the rest of the Spring selling season.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were 0 homes listed for sale in these price ranges. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, March, 2013

Friday, 19 April 2013 11:59

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, March, 2013 indicate that there were 337 properties on the market (up from 315 last month). Overall, there was about a 5.6 month supply of properties (up from 4.8 last month). March had 65 sales. Compared to March, 2012 (100), this year was WAY down, but inventory was down compared to 2012 (420). There were 66 sales last month, so this month was ever so slightly. I’m a little surprised that sales were this low. Inventory HAS to be responsible for part of that.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 70 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 3.8 month supply (compared to 2.7 months supply last year). This March’s sales were 16 (42 last year, 24 last month). It used to be a county leader, though, for now it is moving back to one of the best price/locale segments again. The next level up is coming up fast, though. Sales were likely limited by constricted inventory. Last year at this time, there were 115 listings.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 177 listings for sale (195 last year, 167 last month), and 5.5 months of supply. Sales in March, 2013 were 38 (32 in February), compared with 42 for the same period in 2012. Sales have been consistent for the last few months, but have fallen off somewhat for the last five months. I’d like to see it get up to around 50 sales or so for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks. Make no mistake, this is still pretty much in Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 49 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 8.7 months (6.0 in February). There were 6 sales in March (6 last month)… down from 10 last year at this time. Looking at the three month average, there were 17 sales this year and 19 for the same period last year. This segment had become dramatically stronger in the last couple of months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 20 listings, with about a 6.0 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there was 3 sales this month (4 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 10… For the same time last year, the sales were 6. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. It is fairly strong right now… we’ll have to see if it holds.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 6 homes listed and 18 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level in 2011. There were 7 in 2012. This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity. There was 1 sale in March.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 15 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 45 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 24 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. There was 1 sale in March, but 1 in the Jan-Mar time frame, 4 the year before.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

It’s Even In the BAD School Districts Now…

Wednesday, 17 April 2013 08:01

Written by Lane Bailey

4 Comments

And no, I am NOT going to volunteer which ones those are…

Gwinnett County, Georgia (Photo credit: Dougtone)

Today during our weekly brokerage meeting, my broker was talking about builder activity. South Forsyth County has been going nuts for a few months now. And since inventory has been so low and demand so high, he mentioned that it’s even spilling over into bad school clusters…

Frankly, I got a kick out of that.

But, it is also VERY true. We’ve been seeing inventories drop like a rock in a lot of pockets. Interest rates are trolling along at unbelievably low levels and prices are still suppressed by short sale and foreclosure activity. Gwinnett is moving in a strong direction… Forsyth has been there for a while and we have watched as the builders moved further up-market… now it seems like there is a LOT of activity in the $500k range. A year ago, it would have been suicidal for a builder to put up anything at that price… now they are pre-selling half of their lots before getting a model built.

In fact, one community opened in the last few days and had people CAMPING out over night to be first in line to reserve houses… Real estate is such a deal right now that it is getting BLACK FRIDAY attention.

Rural public high school, Walkertown, Forsyth County, NC (Photo credit: Government & Heritage Library, State Library of NC)

I need to be quick to point out that Gwinnett isn’t quite as far along as Forsyth in that regard… GREAT if you are a buyer, and not too bad if you are a seller. Forsyth had a little advantage in that there weren’t as many foreclosures as in Gwinnett. Gwinnett is also a much larger market, so it takes more to turn it. But we are seeing dramatic decreases in “wholesale” activity (foreclosures) as well as distressed properties like short sales. At the same time, “retail” sales are surging and inventories are dropping.

So, while prices are still struggling a little, they are much stronger than the last few years, and often, well prices homes are pulling in multiple offers… even over listed price.

If you want to have a conversation about YOUR Gwinnett County home, give me a call.

Lilburn, GA Market Report, February 2013

Monday, 15 April 2013 11:51

Written by Lane Bailey

1 Comment

Market stats for Lilburn, GA, February, 2013, indicate that there were 183 properties on the market, down 24 from last month. Overall, there was about an 3.9 month supply of properties and 47 properties that closed (sold) in JFebruary. It was a slight increase from last year’s sales (43) and from January (45 sales). The Absorption Rate notched down slightly. Lilburn had been among the weakest of Gwinnett County, GA, cities I track. But, at 3.87 months of inventory, it is strong now. Six months is considered balanced, lower is a seller’s market and higher is a buyer’s market. And it is one of a very few that got better in February.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 119 listings, with about an 3.2 month supply with 39 sales. This represents most of the sales in the market area. Sales were up a little from last month (36), and from last year (also 36). While the Absorption Rate isn’t as low as many other areas, sales are strong, and I’m think we are in a comeback for Lilburn. At 3.16 months of inventory, with a few months of stats getting better, we’re there.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 54 listings for sale, and about 6.0 months of supply. This segment had been quite weak for months, and had stalled a little, but came back with a vengeance… only to stall a bit again. There were 7 sales compared to 9 last month and 7 last year. Lilburn has never been seen as a luxury market. The decrease in listings has really helped. I’m still not as confident about this portion of the Lilburn market coming back quite yet… It is strengthening, just not as consistently as I’d like. July month was quite strong. April was strong… We are in Balanced Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there are just 7 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 10.5 months. There was 1 sale in February. Poised for a comeback, but an increase in listings and weak sales don’t give the right ingredients for that to happen. To start with, we can’t have 7 month blank spots in sales (none from Aug11 through Feb12). If we can keep up a sale each month on average, this one will be back. Right now, low listings numbers give the appearance of strong activity.

From $600k to $800k, $800k to $1M and Above $1M, there are 3 listings (combined), but too few sales to have any sort of reliable number of months of inventory. March posted the first sale since August, 2010. It was in the $600-$800k range. One of the listings is above $1M and one between $800k and $1M, and there is no market activity in the last 12 months for those ranges…

Lilburn is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 11,307 people in Lilburn, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County. It was incorporated in 1910. Lilburn is home to Parkview High School, and also has students in the Brookwood, Berkmar and Meadowcreek clusters. It is also home to Killian Hill Christian School, Providence Chrisian Academy, St. John Neumann Catholic School and Parkview Christian School. Possibly the most famous resident of Lilburn is General Beauregard Lee, a groundhog with a better winter prediction record that Puxatawnee Phil up in PA. Dominique Wilkins, formerly of the Atlanta Hawks also lives in Lilburn.