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Lawrenceville, GA Market Report, June 2013

Friday, 02 August 2013 08:58

Written by Lane Bailey

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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Lawrenceville, GA, June, 2013, indicate that there were 657 properties on the market, up 10 from last month. Overall, there was about a 3.4 month supply of properties. In 2012, sales for June were at 272, so 211 sales was a big decrease, year over year. Last month’s sales were at 207. But, coupled with the decrease in inventory, things are still looking pretty good. Normally the market picks up from January-February through about June-August. This month we are OK, but some are arguing that constrained inventories are still holding back sales or we could be looking even better.

For Lawrenceville, GA, Homes Under $200k, there are 456 listings, with about a 2.9 month supply of homes. Sales were down from June, 2012 (169 v 248), although sales may very well be off because of constrained inventories. Last year in this segment, there were over 800 listings v under 460 now. This segment is easily the lion’s share of sales for the area. With the 2.85 month A/R, it is solidly in Seller’s Market territory. The low Absorption Rate (AR) is due to very strong sales, coupled with dramatically lower listing inventories. Month over month sales were down from 175 last month.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 172 listings for sale, and about 5.2 months of supply. Oddly, this had one of the mid-pack segments in the county, now it’s on the weak side. The 39 sales for June, 2013 was well over the 29 from last month, and destroyed the 23 sales last year. We are barely into Buyer’s Market territory here… again. Month to month there is a lot of volitility, but over the longer term, it is WAY better than it had been.

From $400k to $600k, there are 20 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 10 months. However, with the level of sales in this segment, a couple of sales added or subtracted can have a HUGE impact. There were 3 sales for June, the Absorption Rate has dropped from 78 months June11, through good, but sporadic sales. This is acting like a luxury market and the A/R is jumping all over the place… with just a few sales (A/R was 25.5 two months ago). While the long term trend was looking a little better, now it is still pretty choppy.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 5 listings, with about 15 months of supply. As with the next lower priced segment, a couple of sales makes a big difference and there were 0 sales in June. There were only 6 sales at this level in all of 2011. There were 4 sales in 2012. May booked the only sale so far in 2013.

Between $800k and $1M, and Above $1M there are 4 homes listed (combined) and not enough sales data to give an accurate absorption rate. Until this month, there had only been one sale in this range in the last 3 years (Aug, 2010), according to FMLS. But, there was 1 sale in July 12. It was over $1M, if that makes a difference…

Lawrenceville is in Gwinnett County, GA, just outside of Atlanta. As of the 2000 Census, there were 22,937 people in Lawrenceville, but that is only including people in the city limits, and there has been a lot of growth since 2000 in Gwinnett County (2008 estimates from the Census Bureau peg population around 29,000). It was incorporated in 1821. Lawrenceville is home to Central Gwinnett High School, and also has students that the Mountain View and Archer clusters. It is also home to Gwinnett Technical College and Georgia Gwinnett College. Another recent addition to Lawrenceville is that it is home to the Gwinnett Braves, playing at the Gwinnett Stadium on GA20 between I-85 and GA316. Possibly the most famous resident of Lawrenceville was Oliver Hardy. As a small boy he lived in Lawrenceville with his parents for a short time. Lawrenceville was also home to Junior Samples. Some of its other residents included Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann and Jennifer Ferrin.

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I have a page dedicated to Lawrenceville Market Data.

I’m Always Up For a Good Surprise.. (lanebailey.com)
Gwinnett County Public Schools Making Changes… (lanebailey.com)

Buford, GA, Market Report, June 2013

Monday, 29 July 2013 09:38

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Buford, GA, June, 2013 indicate that there were 3239 properties on the market, an increase of 15 from last month. Overall, there was about an 4.0 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R). There were 76 sales for June, down from 88 last month and well down from the 102 sales last June12. It isn’t the strongest market in Gwinnett, but the A/R is nothing to sneeze at. It is still in Seller’s Market territory.

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 127 listings, with a 2.7 month supply. This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area. Sales were down from last month 42 (v 52 last month), and well down compared to last year (68 sales in June12). But, the A/R is well under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a solid seller’s market. This time of year we are usually seeing an increase is sales… and listings.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 137 listings for sale, and about 4.1 months of supply. The 32 sales recorded were down from the 35 last month and up from the 29 sales last year for June. This had been one of the weaker segments in the county, but had improved dramatically until a few months ago it was fairly balanced, though tilted towards buyers… now it is further into Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 50 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 16.7 Months. There have been 9 sales in the last 3 months (7 for April, 0 for May and 2 for June). When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year. Just for comparison, there were 15 sales in the Apr-Jun period in 2012. This segment has been bouncing all over the place, though…

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 7 listings. Absorption Rate is 21 months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 7 had made things look less slow… but they are back on the rise. There was 1 sale in June last year and 1 in May this year. There were 0 sales in June this year.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 4 homes listed. Trends are hardly definable. Listings are down. February was the last recorded sale. There was 0 sales in June. So it now has a 24.0 month Absorption Rate.

Above $1m, there were 14 properties listed. There was sale in the segment in April… of 2009…and then May, 2011… and 2 sales in June, 2011… also 1 in July and September, 2012. There was 0 sales in June. So, we have 42 months of inventory. I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier opened for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, June 2013

Friday, 26 July 2013 09:24

Written by Lane Bailey

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Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , June, 2013 indicates that there were 91 homes on the market. down 8 from last month. Overall, there is about an 2.7 month supply (3.0 last month). There were 36 sales, compared to 39 last month and 39 last June. Of course, then there were 139 listings on the market.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there were 46 listings, with about 2.4 months supply. There were 17 sales this June, well below last year for the same time (30). There were 23 sales last month. Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling. This time of year we often see a slight increase in listings… but we are very low. In fact, sales may be stifled by lack of inventory. Things have been a little choppy, though… up one month, down the next, then back up.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 37 listings for sale, and about 2.7 months of supply. Last June there was a 5.4 month supply. There were 9 sales then, this year there were 18. Last month had 15 sales. This month was gang-busters. We are back in Seller’s Market territory here. Of note, from May, 2012, to June, 2012, the Absorption Rate dropped from 10.5 months of inventory to 5.4. It had spent almost a year above 10… and now has spent a year below 10.

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there were 5 homes on the market. The absorption rate was around 7.5 months, but with 1 sale this month, it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. I’ve finally started to see some consistency here. Hopefully we’ll have a little more action during the rest of the active selling season.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there were 3 homes listed for sale in these price ranges. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

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Affordability… The Forgotten Aspect of Home Buying

Wednesday, 24 July 2013 08:27

Written by Lane Bailey

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In early June, 2013, the interest rates for home purchases were hovering around 3.5%. In July, those rates were hanging out at 4.5%.

Historical U.S. Prime Rates (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

There are two ways to look at that…

Mortgages jumped in expense drastically between those two points.
Looking at rates from a historical perspective, 4.5% is a screaming deal.

But in fact, there is a third, often overlooked aspect that needs to be addressed.

Rates are STILL expected to rise over the next few months and years.

As a home buyer in the market, assuming a housing payment budget of $1500/mo (for comparison, we’re just going to use PI… Principle and Interest… and not include Taxes and Insurance).

With a 3.5% interest rate, the buyer could get a loan of about $334,000.
With a 4.5% interest rate, it drops to about $296,000
When the rate rises to 5.5% (and it eventually will…), that loan amount will drop to about $264,000.

Buying berries (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Seeing the difference between 3.5% and 5.5% means a drop in purchasing power of almost $70,000 with the same payment, it becomes painfully obvious that interest rates are at least as important as price when it comes to affordability.

Yet, many buyers will delay on the purchase, trying to find the right price, while the interest rates pushes properties out of their grasp that they COULD have purchased previously. Let’s not mistake… price IS important… but it is only part of the picture.

Looking forward

Looking forward at the real estate market, from late July, 2013, there are a variety of thoughts and opinions.

We are expecting a slow-down in closings for July, compared to the pace we saw in May and June. Granted, those were pretty active months. I would think that the lion’s share of the slow-down may be attributable to increased interest rates and housing costs. There was a HUGE bump at the end of June… rates jumped almost ¾% over one weekend.

Moving into August and September, I expect to see sales rebound somewhat. Interest rates WILL have an impact, but I think that we will also be seeing the wave of initial buyers subside. There was a tremendous pent-up demand… and there is still a significant number of buyers on the edge of entering the market… that dived in at the first signs of recovery.

As more buyers are able to sell their homes without injecting huge amounts of cash, and more buyers feel more secure abut their employment, they will look to move up or purchase.

Is it too late?

No… but it does require a different thought process than a year or two ago. Then, deals were everywhere. Buyers didn’t have to be quick, and they didn’t have to make competitive offers on most properties. But now, buyers NEED to be ready to offer when they see a property. They also need to be ready to start with their best offer… they might not have a second chance to offer on that property. Sellers are not required to send out a call for “Highest and Best” after getting multiple offers. Many don’t.

But in 3-5 years, when buyers are looking back on the opportunities they had today, they WILL see that there were great deals to be had. They just required more of a fight than they did when there were fewer buyers in the market and more properties available.

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, June, 2013

Monday, 22 July 2013 08:22

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Suwanee, GA, June, 2013 indicate that there were 3507 properties on the market (up from 350 last month). Overall, there was about a 3.3 month supply of properties (down from 3.8 last month). June had 119 sales. Compared to June, 2012 (93), this year was WAY up, but inventory was down compared to 2012 (455). There were 118 sales last month, so this month was up ever so slightly. The machine has really cranked up over the last couple of months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 51 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 2.3 month supply (compared to 2.3 months supply last year). This June’s sales were 21 (36 last year, 21 last month). It used to be a county leader, though, for now it is moving back to one of the best price/locale segments again. The next level up is coming up fast, though. Last year at this time, there were 116 listings. Sales are being killed by last year’s, but the way the inventory has dropped, there is a pretty good chance that the low inventory is constricting sales.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 190 listings for sale (191 last year, 194 last month), and 2.9 months of supply. Sales in June, 2013 were 73 (71 in May), compared with 42 for the same period in 2012. Sales have rocked for the last few months. I’d like to see it stay up past 50 sales or so for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Unlike most of the county, this is the largest price segment in the area, and its direction plays a major part in how the area looks. Make no mistake, this is still basically in Seller’s Market territory.

From $400k to $600k, there were 62 homes on the market. The absorption rate was at 4.1 months (4.9 in May). There were 17 sales in June (17 last month)… up from 9 last year at this time. Looking at the three month average, there were 45 sales this year and 30 for the same period last year. This segment had become dramatically stronger in the last couple of months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 25 listings, with about a 4.4 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 7 sales this month (8 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 17… For the same time last year, the sales were 9. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, I was looking for this to become one of the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. It is fairly strong right now… we’ll have to see if it holds.

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 12 homes listed and 72 months of inventory on the market. There were only 4 sales at this price level in 2011. There were 7 in 2012. This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough. But there still needs to be some more sales activity. There was 1 sale in March.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 17 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 17 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year. There was 1 sale in June, but 3 in the Apr-Jun time frame, 2 the year before.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.