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Tag Archives: duluth

Wayback Wednesday… Why Hyperlocal Matters in the Real Estate Market

Wednesday, 15 February 2012 08:00
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Downtown Lawrenceville (as of June 2006)

Image via Wikipedia

Last year I was writing about why the only REAL important market report in real estate is a VERY local market report.  It’s all fine and dandy to hear the talking heads on (insert your favorite national news network), but national averages mean nothing on the state level.  Even state averages mean very little in specific counties.  In fact, looking at county level data might only be marginally relevant to a certain city in the county, and even then, there might be specific school districts or subdivisions that buck the trend… one way or another.

I run market reports for Suwanee, Lilburn, Sugar Hill, Buford, Lawrenceville, Norcross and Duluth, and it is surprising how often two cities that are right next to each other in the county will have wildly different market reports.

There is a lot more in the original post…  Hop on over and take a look.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, December 2011

Friday, 03 February 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Preliminary stats for Duluth, December, 2011 indicated that there were 445 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 7.9 month supply of properties.  Sales in December were 57, slightly down from 66 a year earlier.  But, sales were slightly up compared to the prior month (51).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much over the last three months.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 179 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 5.0 month supply.   The Absorption Rate for October, was 3.55.   Sales in December were up this year v last year (35 v 31), and up compared to last month (28).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is rocking most of the county… but it has decelerated again this month, ever so slightly.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 119 listings for sale, and about 10.5 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving mostly the wrong way (up) since August.  Sales were down compared to December, 2010 (14 v 19) but well up compared to last month (8).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing that well…

From $400k to $600k, there were 48 homes on the market.  The Absorption Rate was around 9.0 months.  December brought in 5 sales.  There were 7 last year and 8 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still kind of weak, but it’s better than last month.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 41 listings, with about 12.3 months of supply.  Sales were 2 for December… 4 for December last year.  Month to month sales were down (2 v 5).  Last month was pretty good, but I haven’t seen three consecutive months with strong sales for a while.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 22 homes listed and approximately 66 months of inventory on the market.  The 0 sales recorded for December was beaten by last year’s 3 and down from the 1 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 1 sale for the last3 months has killed the 3 month average A/R.  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t.

Above $1m, there were 36 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 54 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates.  There were 2 sales in the Oct-Dec period this year, and 4 for the same time last year.  Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here instead of the 1 we got.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County. It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County. The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address. It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently. Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum). There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Duluth, GA, Market Report, November 2011

Monday, 09 January 2012 08:00
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This map shows the incorporated and unincorpor...

Image via Wikipedia

Preliminary stats for Duluth, November, 2011 indicated that there were 439 properties on the market.  Overall, there is about an 7.4 month supply of properties.  Sales in November were 51, slightly down from 54 a year earlier.  But, sales were slightly down compared to the prior month (62).  Duluth had been slightly leading Gwinnett County as a whole, but not so much in October and November.

In the Under $200k arena, there were 168 listings in Duluth, GA, with about a 4.3 month supply.  The Absorption Rate two years ago, December, 2009, was in the low 5s.  Sales for November were up sharply this year v last year (28 v 25), but down compared to last month (44).  The Absorption Rate (A/R) is rocking most of the county… but sales have decelerated again this month, ever so slightly.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 121 listings for sale, and about 11.3 months of supply.  Absorption rates have similarly risen, dropped and then risen again, but have been moving the wrong way (up) since August.  Sales were WAY down compared to November, 2010 (8v 15) and compared to last month (12).  Duluth is a market that favors luxury, but this segment is not doing well…

From $400k to $600k, there were 50 homes on the market.  The absorption rate was around 11.5 months.  November brought in 8 sales.  There were 8 last year and 3 last month.  As with much of the county, the recovery that seems to be solidifying at the lower end of the price strata is much weaker here.  Duluth is a luxury centric market, and it is doing better than the rest of Gwinnett County, GA, but the segment is still pretty weak, but it’s better than last month,

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 40 listings, with about 10.9 months of supply.  Sales were 5 for November… 3 for November last year.  Month to month sales were better (5 v 3). After August’s performance (5 sales), I had been holding out some hope last month, but had to wait until this month to see the result I wanted.  Since Duluth does favor luxury sales, it looks better than the rest of the County.

In Duluth, GA, from $800k to $1m, there were 23 homes listed and approximately 69 months of inventory on the market.  The 1 sale recorded for November was beaten by last year’s 2 but flat the 0 from last month.  Sales haven’t been moving much for the last couple of months, but 1 sale for the last3 months has killed the 3 month average A/R.  It isn’t as weak as that suggests… at least I hope it isn’t.

Above $1m, there were 37 properties listed.  The current absorption rate indicated about 28 months of inventory.  A couple of sales at this level could have a large impact on the Absorption Rates.  There were 4 sales in the Sept-Nov period this year, and 5 for the same time last year.  Fall was weak last year, but we should be posting four sales a month here.

Duluth, GA is a suburb of Atlanta, in the heart of Gwinnett County.  It actually straddles the county line and has unincorporated portions in South Forsyth County.  The population of Duluth is estimated as about 26,000 people as of 2008, but this doesn’t include unincorporated areas outside the city limits, but with a Duluth mailing address.  It is also home to Sugarloaf Country Club, a PGA stop until recently.  Forbes Magazine rated Duluth 26th in their nationwide survey of the best places to move, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia.  It is also home to the Arena at Gwinnett Center (Home of the ECHL Gwinnett Gladiators) and the former Atlanta Thrashers practice facility (the Duluth Ice Forum).  There is a LONG list of celebrities and athletes that call Duluth home, largely because of the country clubs and proximity to Atlanta.

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

I have a page dedicated to Duluth Market Information.

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Wayback Wednesday… How Were My Prognostications?

Wednesday, 04 January 2012 08:00
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Last year I wrote one of those “wonderful” annual prognostication posts with my guesses on what we would be looking at during the same time next year… and that would be now.

Gwinnett County, Georgia

Image by dougtone via Flickr

Here is a link to the old post.  I’ll have the quick version below, but if you want to see the context, knock yourself out…

  • I predict that next year there will STILL be people talking about the coming giant wave of Shadow Inventory.  Well, I have to say that I hit that one.  Inventories are dropping, but the general buzz in the biz is that there is a huge wave of “Shadow Inventory” just around the bend.  Of course, it has been there (just around the corner) for a few years now…
  • Interest Rates ARE going to rise.  They did… a little… but they are down.  I was wrong.
  • … there will be another wave of government intervention…  I hoped I would be wrong on this one, and I was.
  • The entry level market (under $200k) is well on the way to recovery… and that will continue.  I hit that one right.  The entry level market is pretty much rocking in Gwinnett County.
  • And I don’t think we will see a meaningful recovery in prices for the Luxury Market (above $600k).  Talk about a hurting market segment…  Unfortunately, I hit that one on the head.
  • The “Near Luxury” segment (from $200k-$600k) will be mixed.  That one is pretty close.  There are some markets that we are seeing a meaningful recovery for this price level… and other, not so much.  A few are just waffling.
  • I don’t see Unemployment going under 9% during 2011.  How do I rate this one?  Officially, I am wrong.  However, most of the improvement hasn’t been from job creation, but rather from people giving up.  The December numbers are supposed to be released later today…

I went 4 for 7… maybe 5 for 7, depending on how you want to score the last one.

 

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Wayback Wednesday… Zestimate Accuracy in Atlanta

Wednesday, 14 December 2011 08:00
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You just have to love Zillow’s Zestimates.  Log in and look… poof… there is the Zestmate for your home.  Couldn’t be easier.  It’s almost too easy.  OK, it IS too easy.  And while I love the Zestimate just as much as everyone else, I also know that the chances of it being right are pretty slim.

"Lincoln Heights"I don’t want to slam Zestimates, though.  They actually ARE quite useful.  Their usefulness isn’t in their application to individual houses… it has more to do with looking at Zestimates for larger areas… ZIP codes, cities, regions.  The statistical variations that are the problem with looking at individual houses start cancelling each other out.  what we are left with is a pretty good measure of home values for an area.

Last year I posted up a breakdown of the Zestimate accuracy of individual listings in the Atlanta Metro Statistical Area.  The bottom line is that the Zestimate has about a 1 in 5 chance of giving you a value within 5% of the real market value of your house.  And the y are just as likely to be high as they are low.

If you are just curious, it is a fun tool.  If you REALLY need to know, you should talk with an Appraiser or a Real Estate Agent (depending on WHY you really need to know).  And remember, the real estate agent that tells you the highest value is probably wrong… and might even know they are wrong.  In the business, we call it “buying a listing”.  The strategy there is to promise a high listing price, and then come back after you are in a listing agreement and try to get the price down to where it should have been in the first place.  The biggest problem with that strategy is that it completely wastes the prime market time… when the house is first listed.  The end result is that the price usually ends up lower than if you had opted for a slightly lower price to begin with.

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