Tag Archives: investment

Wayback Wednesday… Custom v Catalog v Mass Produced

Wednesday, 30 November 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

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Last year I wrote a post about various ways to design a home. Not in the “pen to paper” way, but rather in the conceptual way. Homes can generally be characterized in one of three ways.

Custom – Built one at a time, all on site. They might not be so custom that there will never be another one like it, but custom in that the builder gets a pile of materials and makes a house… each piece fitted on-site to the project.
Catalog – Built from pre-designed and constructed components. The buyer could go through a catalog and select the different types of rooms to go into their overall plan. The subsystems could designed to go together onsite.
Mass Produced – Factory built from the frame up and transported to the site for installation. The first thing that comes to mind would be a “mobile home”, but there are some that are so beyond that.

In the post from last year I compared these to cars from the 1920s and 30s. At that time, those were the distinct paths a car buyer could choose… full-on custom, catalog or mass produced. Check out the link… I think there is a revolution coming in home-building. I think it is still a few years in the future, but it is coming.

Wayback Wednesday… Bankrupt Subdivisions… Good Deal? (lanebailey.com)
Wayback Wednesday… To Finish or Not to Finish, That is the Question. (lanebailey.com)
Wayback Wednesday… From the Meltdown. (lanebailey.com)

What Can “Fix” Housing?

Friday, 18 November 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

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There are still a few politicians, and a lot of real estate professionals talking about the government “fixing” the real estate market. But the question is…

Is there a way or a role for the government to fix the housing market?

We’ve seen a substantial tax credit for purchasing a home, both for first time buyers and for existing (hopefully) move-up buyers. And we’ve seen calls for more of the same. But at the same time, there are a lot of experts that don’t think that the tax credits created many sales that wouldn’t have happened without them.

Even $8000 isn’t that much of a motivating factor for someone to make a $150K+ purchase. And most of the people that took advantage of the tax credit were only hastened by the tax credit, not created by it… in other words, they would have purchased the home anyway, only their time-table was altered… in many cases, only by a couple of months. Looking at past sales, it is obvious when the credit expired. Sales increased at a rapid pace, and then dropped precipitously as the credit expired. Sales remained well under par for many months after the credit expired. Some economists estimate that the $8000 tax credit had a cost of over $44,000 for each sale it “created”.

There are other ideas floating around on Capitol Hill about ways that the federal government can spur housing sales. And there are a lot of folks… especially in the halls of the National Association of REALTORS® that feel that housing needs to come back in order for the economy to rebound.

I think they have it backwards. In order for real estate to rebound, people have to feel secure with the job market. How can someone be expected to make a 30 year plan (getting a mortgage, for example) when they are worried about their job in the next few months? So, focusing on job creating, especially by smaller businesses, and removing impediments to starting or expanding small businesses would do wonders. Instead of tax credits focused on housing, tax relief for people starting businesses would do more for the housing market.

What do you think?

Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Monday, 07 November 2011 08:44

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Buford, GA, September, 2011 indicate that there were 506 properties on the market. Overall, there was about an 6.6 month supply of properties (Absorption Rate or A/R). There were 79 sales for August, up slightly from 75 last month and up significantly from 52 from last September (2010).

In the sub-$200k arena, there were 270 listings, with a 4.7 month supply. This is the largest price segment in this market area, so strength here usually equals strength across the whole local market area. Sales were down slightly from last month (55 v 56), but impressively strong compared to last year (33 sales in September, 2010). Framed in the results for the whole market area, the segment is reasonably strong. And the A/R is well under the 6 months that would be considered fairly balanced… pointing towards a seller’s market.

Between $200k and $400k, there were 175 listings for sale, and about 10.7 months of supply. The 18 sales recorded were slightly above the 17 from last month and the 17 sales last year for September. As strong as the Under $200k segment is, this one is MUCH weaker. It is one of the weaker areas in the county for this price. Of course, last September, the A/R was just over 17 months.

From $400k to $600k, there were 37 homes on the market. The absorption rate is 1.3 Months. There has been 9 sales in the last 3 months (6 sales for September, 2 for August, 1 for July). When the market is rolling, there should be 5-7 sales a month during this part of the year. This is the first time in a while that we have been there. This segment had been acting like a luxury segment with sporadic sales for the last few months. I’d really like to see a follow-up with 4-5 sales for October.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there were 5 listings. Absorption Rate is 15 months… but it jumps around a lot. Sales in this range are pretty sporadic, but steady when looking at the long-term. The drop in inventory over the last few months from 14 homes to 5 homes has made things look less slow… but there have been 5 sales in this segment in the last year… the last was two months ago.

The range from $800k to $1m, there were 11 homes listed. And with only 2 sales in the last year (December, 2010), obviously trends are hardly definable. Listings are up, but sales aren’t following, though.

Above $1m, there were 9 properties listed. The last sale in the segment was in April… of 2009…and then there was May… and 2 sales in June. FINALLY, new sales! So, we have 13.5 months of inventory. I hope, but am not expecting, sales to be more consistent.

Buford, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett and Hall Counties. The population is 2000 was 10,668, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Buford is home to Lake Lanier, one of Georgia’s premiere recreational areas, and Lake Lanier Islands. Recently, the City of Buford has revamped their old town. It is also home to Buford (Buford City Schools aren’t a part of Gwinnett County Schools), Mill Creek, Mountain View and Lanier High School (Lanier will open for the 2010-11 school year).

I have a page dedicated to Buford Market Data.

Buford, GA, Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Friday, 04 November 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

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Market stats for Sugar Hill, GA , September, 2011 indicates that there are 199 homes on the market. Overall, there is about an 5.8 month supply. There were 27 sales, compared to 33 last month and 17 last September. The Absorption Rate (AR) dropped, but that is partly due to a declining listings.

For Sugar Hill homes priced under $200k, there are 145 listings, with about 4.7 months supply. There were 25 sales this September, 2½ times the number from last year for the same time (9). Last month there were 31 sales. Inventories have been fluid, rising and falling. Normally, this time of year we see inventories leveling out.

Sugar Hill Listings between $200k and $400k, there are 45 listings for sale, and about 11.3 months of supply. Last September there was an 11.5 month supply. Last September there were 7 sales, this year there were 2. Last month also had 2. This segment is acting opposite of the under $200k segment, as well as opposite of stronger areas like Suwanee ($200k-$400k).

For listings in the $400k to $600k range, there are 5 homes on the market. The absorption rate is around 15 months, but with 4 sales since last October, it is tough to calculate accurately. Obviously, a sale or two could make a BIG difference. There were only 3 sales in this segment last year. In 2009, there were almost twice as many sales in this price range. I still hope to see some consistent activity in this segment.

In the $600k to $800k, $800k to $1m and Above $1m (combined), the sales are too inconsistent to have a solid read on, but there are only 4 homes listed for sale in that price range. No sales have been recorded in the last 2+ years.

Sugar Hill, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County. The population is 2000 was 11,399, but that only included the area inside the city limits. The name comes from a bag of Sugar that spilled on a hill while in transit between Cumming and the railroad in Buford. And while it is actually a big market, it is in the shadows of Lawrenceville, Duluth and Suwanee… which all are nearby. That also makes it a great location, as it is close to everything that Gwinnett County, GA has to offer.

I have a page dedicated to Sugar Hill Market Data.

Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Friday, 28 October 2011 08:00

Written by Lane Bailey

0 Comments

Image via Wikipedia

Market stats for Suwanee, GA, September, 2011 indicate that there are 579 properties on the market (down from 593 last month). Overall, there is about an 6.7 month supply of properties (down from 7.3 last month). September had 79 sales. Compared to 2010 (55), that was VERY strong. Inventory was down, as well, compared to 2010 (598). The last two months have been very strong, but that comes on a very weak June and just average sales for a couple of prior months. Obviously, I’d like to see continued strength here.

In the Under $200k arena, there are 179 listings in Suwanee, GA, with about a 5.8 month supply (144 and 8.3, respectively last year). This August’s sales were OK, at 28 (just 18 last year). This is definitely the strongest price segment in Duluth, but not that strong compared to some other areas of the county. As recently as June 2010, the A/R was 4.8 months. I’d like to see sales approaching 35 for the next couple of months to call this segment strong.

Between $200k and $400k, there are 274 listings for sale (311 last year), and 6.7 months of supply. Sales in September, 2011 were 42 (32 in August), compared with 30 for the same period in 2010. Sales have been bouncing between very strong and average for the last few months. I’d like to see some consistency around 35-40 sales for the next couple of months. This shouldn’t be a “peaky” market/price segment. Could be getting better…

From $400k to $600k, there are 67 homes on the market. The absorption rate is at 6.5 months (6.5 in August). There were 5 sales in September (15 in August)… flat compared to last September. Looking at the three month average, there were 31 sales this year and 26 for the same period last year. This segment has gotten dramatically stronger in the last couple of months, but for the last few years has dropped off pretty heavily as school started. I’d be quite happy with 10 sales over each of the next two months.

In the $600k to $800k arena, there are 23 listings, with about a 6.3 month supply. Sales at this level are not consistent, but there were 3 this month (3 last month). Looking at one month makes the numbers jump around. For the last three months, sales were 11… For the same time last year, the sales were 10. With the huge decrease in listings over the last couple of months, this has become the strongest $600k-$800k area in the county. Over the next couple of months, look for 2-3 sales a month on average. On track so far…

The range from $800k to $1m, there are 9 homes listed and 9.0 months of inventory on the market. There were only been 4 sales at this price level this year (1 in April, 2 in July and 1 in August). This is a tough segment to try to sell in right now, but if inventory stays low, it won’t be quite as rough.

In Suwanee, GA, Above $1m, there are 27 properties listed. The current absorption rate indicated about 27 months of inventory, but because of the smaller numbers of sales, this could be significantly impacted by just a couple of sales. In this segment, we should be seeing reduced inventories… There were 25 homes listed in this segment at this time last year.

Suwanee, GA is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett, Forsyth and (just a little bit) in Fulton Counties. The population is 2000 was 8,725, but that only included the area inside the city limits, and it had seen tremendous growth since that census. Money Magazine rated Suwanee in the “Top 10 Best Places to Live” in 2007, and it is one of the wealthiest parts of Georgia. Recently, the City of Suwanee has revamped their old town, adding a large park with a bandshell, condos, town homes and small businesses. It is also home to North Gwinnett High School, Peachtree Ridge and Collins Hill. I have a page dedicated to Suwanee Market Data.

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, August 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, June 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, May 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, April 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, March 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, February 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, January 2011 (lanebailey.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, December 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, November 2010 (lanebailey.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, October 2010 (gwinnettgarageguy.com)
Suwanee, GA, Market Report, September 2010 (lanebailey.com)

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Atlanta Metro Home Values – Interactive chart

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Tag Archives: investment

Wayback Wednesday… Custom v Catalog v Mass Produced

What Can “Fix” Housing?

Is there a way or a role for the government to fix the housing market?

What do you think?

Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Suwanee, GA, Market Report, September 2011

Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Browse Listings

What's YOUR Home Worth?

Custom Listings

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Tag Archives: investment

Wayback Wednesday… Custom v Catalog v Mass Produced

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What Can “Fix” Housing?

Is there a way or a role for the government to fix the housing market?

What do you think?

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Buford, GA, Market Report, September 2011

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Atlanta Metro Zillow Home Value Index

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Sugar Hill, GA, Market Report, September 2011

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Suwanee, GA, Market Report, September 2011

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